Tons of war happen without run up. Even if the run-up happened threw-out a period of months, it would still be shock. A shock is change relative to some trend,

Tons of war happen without run up. Even if the run-up happened threw-out a period of months, it would still be shock. A shock is change relative to some trend, not necessarily a fixed thing that happens in the news. > As late as 2006 and 2007, we have economists on record as saying "everything's dandy". This was not due to a lack of data; they had most of the information then that we're arguing about now. Instead, it was because their models said what happened couldn't happen. In 2006/2007 everything was more or less ok. While there was a housing crisis, GDP growth was on track and unemployment did not go up. You seem to think that everything after late 2008 was predetermined, witch is false.