I think it’s pure hubris to say that anyone can distinguish overall skill at a statistically significant level between these different populations. Heck, I’d e

I think it’s pure hubris to say that anyone can distinguish overall skill at a statistically significant level between these different populations. Heck, I’d even say if you only look at the population of engineers who you have directly observed doing a good job on some interview trivia or code test, you still cannot reliably conclude that draws from that population are statistically significantly more likely to be acceptably good at a job once hired than draws from a different population. People and processes capable of detecting skilled engineers are extremely rare. Skilled engineers are also somewhat rare. What we set up as tech hiring processes are mostly just crap-shoot just-so stories we tell ourselves, mixed with a ton of hubris.