I mean if you need all four for a PT Cruiser, and you have three, it's more likely you'll win the prize than if you have none of them yet. But since that fourth

I mean if you need all four for a PT Cruiser, and you have three, it's more likely you'll win the prize than if you have none of them yet. But since that fourth one is so rare, you will vastly overestimate how "close" you are to winning.