That is definitely a good strategy for a recruiter. However the context of the author's experience seems to be how the author's coworkers treats them. If I'm wo

That is definitely a good strategy for a recruiter. However the context of the author's experience seems to be how the author's coworkers treats them. If I'm working with someone and I get to see their code, or I can take a look if I'm curious, IMO it becomes a vice to use Bayesian probability when you can look at the person's actual code and judge their skill. A different way to put it is Bayesian probability is good in a situation of uncertainty, but if you are not in a situation of uncertainty it just becomes lazy/ prejudicial.