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For my 6th birthday party, my mother challenged all the kids to guess the number of Smarties (M&M-like candy) in a tube. Everyone guessed in the range of 15-20,
by gmurphy 16y ago
For my 6th birthday party, my mother challenged all the kids to guess the number of Smarties (M&M-like candy) in a tube. Everyone guessed in the range of 15-20, except for one joker who yelled out 100. It ended up being 121.
This makes me think that underestimation is more common for the things you want lots of (chocolate, tickets); with overestimation being the norm for the things you want less of (enemy soldiers, incoming vehicle speed).
This would make sense from a what-happens-if-you're-wrong perspective.
- naner 16y agoEveryone guessed in the range of 15-20 Were the guesses public? Perhaps it was just the result of anchoring. Or overestimating others' abilities in comparison to one's own abilities (is there a term for this?). This makes me think that underestimation is more common... This one experience? And you were only six... not a whole lot of life experience at estimating things.
- eru 16y agoInteresting. I did not know that Smarties were Europe-only.
- pmichaud 16y agoThe US has a candy called Smarties, but they are different entirely, and made by different companies.
- jessriedel 16y agoSmarties in US: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Qm2M81VKS-s/SaC6lVU2-UI/AAAAAAAADnM/YmF-_vGHM34/s400/smarties.jpg http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Qm2M81VKS-s/SaC6lVU2-UI/AAAAAAAADn... Smarties in Europe: http://www.sogoodblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/smarties-3.jpg http://www.sogoodblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/smartie...
- icegreentea 16y agoSmarties exist in Canada as well. Though every seems to enjoy M&Ms more.
- Gormo 16y agoIf you're applying a kind of maximin strategy, overestimating the things you want less of makes sense. But underestimating the things you want more of is as likely to lead you to quickly exhaust your existing supply as to go out and find more.