As joshgel said, a black swan isn't a rare event. We can model rare events. A black swan is an event that is by definition unimaginable. Sometimes a baked in

As joshgel said, a black swan isn't a rare event. We can model rare events. A black swan is an event that is by definition unimaginable. Sometimes a baked in assumption being flipped on its head creates huge effects that change everything. If you can name it, you can give it a probability and account for it in your models. Those aren't black swans.