I've been ambivalent about this for some time, but given my personal experience and observations of others I am tending toward thinking that, yes, we are indeed

I've been ambivalent about this for some time, but given my personal experience and observations of others I am tending toward thinking that, yes, we are indeed overthinking this. Eat less calories than you consume on a consistent basis and you will lose weight. And no, I don't think that's actually as hard to do as most people make it out to be. What is hard to do is to resist the alluring promise of quick results. Where most people seem to mess up is in getting lost in the noise and losing the signal. This causes them to pursue esoteric approaches to diet that are unlikely to work in the long-run. Part of this comes from our desire for quick results. Unfortunately, I don't think quick results work for weight loss. I think sustainable weight loss takes so long to achieve that you're going to be unlikely to notice much difference, nor will anyone else. Maybe people who haven't seen you in the last year or two will notice, but not many others.