3 ms·

I think blackness here is because they are rare, not because they are bad.

• Yoric 8y ago
  I suspect that jnurmine meant that they are not that unlikely.
  • joshgel 8y ago
    Suspect so. The fact that we can name them in advance implies they aren't that black.
• citrablue 8y ago
  As joshgel said, a black swan isn't a rare event. We can model rare events. A black swan is an event that is by definition unimaginable. Sometimes a baked in assumption being flipped on its head creates huge effects that change everything. If you can name it, you can give it a probability and account for it in your models. Those aren't black swans.