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"In the Black Swan, non-financial event category we could list Russia, North Korea, China, Pakistan, Iran, domestic political unrest and the Mueller investigati
by jnurmine 8y ago
"In the Black Swan, non-financial event category we could list Russia, North Korea, China, Pakistan, Iran, domestic political unrest and the Mueller investigation as market busters."
Instead of Black Swans aren't these more like grey swans? Their shade can be discussed of course, some might be lighter than others.
- Bjartr 8y agoI think blackness here is because they are rare, not because they are bad.
- Yoric 8y agoI suspect that jnurmine meant that they are not that unlikely.
- joshgel 8y agoSuspect so. The fact that we can name them in advance implies they aren't that black.
- citrablue 8y agoAs joshgel said, a black swan isn't a rare event. We can model rare events. A black swan is an event that is by definition unimaginable. Sometimes a baked in assumption being flipped on its head creates huge effects that change everything. If you can name it, you can give it a probability and account for it in your models. Those aren't black swans.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]