6 ms·

Faacebook is hugely overvalued. Its actual value for its users is far less then perceived. You can't fool all the people all the time, and the day will come tha

Faacebook is hugely overvalued. Its actual value for its users is far less then perceived. You can't fool all the people all the time, and the day will come that people will realize it. I'm all for social networks (and making good profit from operating them), they have a key role in democratizing the global society, its just that facebook is abusing our basic psychological needs to make money.

qubex 8y ago
Since the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke I’ve disabled notifications on my phone and find myself pressing it perhaps 30 minutes a week rather than what was probably almost an hour a day. Even giving it half an hour of my time seems like a bit of a bad habit I should cut out. I never relied on it for news, ignored the ads, and generally really tried to use it exclusively to maintain the potential for contact with the diaspora of worldwide friends and acquaintances and their sometimes-shifting contact details.
- SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
  I deleted the app and just use the mobile website when I want to occasionally check what friends and family are up to. Much less of a distraction and battery life is much improved. I also started using Messenger Lite now instead of the full-blown Messenger. That said, it seems very rare my friends or family actually post anything these days. Mostly I use it for a handful of specialist groups which could just as easily be replaced with forums.
  - yotamoron 8y ago
    I completely deleted my FB account well over 3 years ago, and never looked back. After the initial panic subsided, life become much better.
samstave 8y ago
What I would really like to know, is the correlation between the FB IPO and the rental prices around the valley going up at the time. Just prior to the FB IPO, I lived about two blocks from the then CIO or CTO of FB (cant recall his name - this was just as Asana was getting a lot of buzz as well) -- and I was looking for a new apartment in Noe Valley. I recall that a place that I saw going for $3,000 per month took an immediate jump to $7,000 per month days after the IPO and they wanted a $10,000 security deposit... Other rents went up as well. My overall point being, that it sucks, but is interesting, to see how tech company IPOs impact overall COL - but when comments such as "FB is hugely overvalued" are made, and instances where FBs value drops - the damage to real COL has an impact radius thats already happened and far more reaching than simply to those who benefit/suffer from their personal stock holdings' value... Its the reality of the world/market - but lets imagine FB ceasing to exist magically... COL/rents will not adjust accordingly. So, while I don't personally care about FB's value - I am interested in how much the entirety of COL is affected by any tech success/failure throughout silicon valley... How are these types of factors evaluated by economists?
collyw 8y ago
Its difficult to give it up completely (without loosing something). I tried, but it is a useful place for contacts that you don't see often and are in different parts of the world. It stays current, which phone numbers and email address don't.
- beagle3 8y ago
  You lose something by using it too, you know -- you let FB track everything about you, and shape your world view if you read the posts they decide to show you. It's a tradeoff. You don't have to delete it; Just make sure it is perfectly blocked (through uBlock Origin, Disconnect, Ghostery, PiHole, etc) so they can't track you - and login in once a month or so to https://mbasic.facebook.com/ https://mbasic.facebook.com/ if you need to figure out someone's new phone number.
- brandon272 8y ago
  I haven't deleted my account but I have reduced my Facebook usage by 90%+ by simply deleting the app from my phone.
flycaliguy 8y ago
I’m pretty sure Facebook can fool enough people forever.
tempodox 8y ago
> You can't fool all the people all the time... I suspect you can, with the equivalent of survivor bias. Those who can't be fooled don't have Facebook accounts.
Jsharm 8y ago
In Western society maybe but in emerging markets Facebook is still huge. And for many em small businesses it is their only online presence.
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > In Western society maybe but in emerging markets Facebook is still huge Americans and Canadians earn Facebook over 4x per user what Europeans do and over 10x what Asia Pacific users do [1]. Facebook's user base shifting overseas implies a massive revenue drop (and corresponding adjustment to value). [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-average-revenue-per-user-by-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-average...
  - fwn 8y ago
    Assuming that their earnings per Asian user do not increase, they need 10 Asian users for every US American user? That doesn't sound unrealistic.
    - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
      > they need 10 Asian users for every US American user? Assuming the tenth Asian user (a) is as lucrative as the first and (b) costs 1/10th as much to provide services to as an American user, sure. I'm doubtful about those assumptions. And this is all just for treading water.
      - fwn 8y ago
        The tenth Asian user is not as lucrative as the first. Those numbers have to be averages.
- puranjay 8y ago
  The trouble is that the people who are fooled by Facebook in emerging markets aren't likely to be a big source of profit for Facebook. In India, for instance, Facebook is especially popular among old people like my parents, or poorer people. The former won't spent much money online because habit. The latter don't have much money to spend.
thinkingemote 8y ago
I'm inclined to agree, but am reminded of the Dropbox Vs rsync post on HN. The value to me from it is okay groups family and friends. I can write a facebook clone which does all the things I like in a month or so, but that's kind of missing the point.
therealdrag0 8y ago
The market value is not value to users, it's value to advertisers.
slantaclaus 8y ago
P/E is in the thirties. I have to disagree here. Google has had a PE in the thirties since 2006

qubex 8y ago

Since the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke I’ve disabled notifications on my phone and find myself pressing it perhaps 30 minutes a week rather than what was probably almost an hour a day. Even giving it half an hour of my time seems like a bit of a bad habit I should cut out. I never relied on it for news, ignored the ads, and generally really tried to use it exclusively to maintain the potential for contact with the diaspora of worldwide friends and acquaintances and their sometimes-shifting contact details.

SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
I deleted the app and just use the mobile website when I want to occasionally check what friends and family are up to. Much less of a distraction and battery life is much improved. I also started using Messenger Lite now instead of the full-blown Messenger. That said, it seems very rare my friends or family actually post anything these days. Mostly I use it for a handful of specialist groups which could just as easily be replaced with forums.
- yotamoron 8y ago
  I completely deleted my FB account well over 3 years ago, and never looked back. After the initial panic subsided, life become much better.

samstave 8y ago

What I would really like to know, is the correlation between the FB IPO and the rental prices around the valley going up at the time. Just prior to the FB IPO, I lived about two blocks from the then CIO or CTO of FB (cant recall his name - this was just as Asana was getting a lot of buzz as well) -- and I was looking for a new apartment in Noe Valley. I recall that a place that I saw going for $3,000 per month took an immediate jump to $7,000 per month days after the IPO and they wanted a $10,000 security deposit... Other rents went up as well. My overall point being, that it sucks, but is interesting, to see how tech company IPOs impact overall COL - but when comments such as "FB is hugely overvalued" are made, and instances where FBs value drops - the damage to real COL has an impact radius thats already happened and far more reaching than simply to those who benefit/suffer from their personal stock holdings' value... Its the reality of the world/market - but lets imagine FB ceasing to exist magically... COL/rents will not adjust accordingly. So, while I don't personally care about FB's value - I am interested in how much the entirety of COL is affected by any tech success/failure throughout silicon valley... How are these types of factors evaluated by economists?

collyw 8y ago

Its difficult to give it up completely (without loosing something). I tried, but it is a useful place for contacts that you don't see often and are in different parts of the world. It stays current, which phone numbers and email address don't.

beagle3 8y ago
You lose something by using it too, you know -- you let FB track everything about you, and shape your world view if you read the posts they decide to show you. It's a tradeoff. You don't have to delete it; Just make sure it is perfectly blocked (through uBlock Origin, Disconnect, Ghostery, PiHole, etc) so they can't track you - and login in once a month or so to https://mbasic.facebook.com/ https://mbasic.facebook.com/ if you need to figure out someone's new phone number.
brandon272 8y ago
I haven't deleted my account but I have reduced my Facebook usage by 90%+ by simply deleting the app from my phone.

flycaliguy 8y ago

I’m pretty sure Facebook can fool enough people forever.

tempodox 8y ago

> You can't fool all the people all the time... I suspect you can, with the equivalent of survivor bias. Those who can't be fooled don't have Facebook accounts.

Jsharm 8y ago

In Western society maybe but in emerging markets Facebook is still huge. And for many em small businesses it is their only online presence.

JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> In Western society maybe but in emerging markets Facebook is still huge Americans and Canadians earn Facebook over 4x per user what Europeans do and over 10x what Asia Pacific users do [1]. Facebook's user base shifting overseas implies a massive revenue drop (and corresponding adjustment to value). [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-average-revenue-per-user-by-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/251328/facebooks-average...
- fwn 8y ago
  Assuming that their earnings per Asian user do not increase, they need 10 Asian users for every US American user? That doesn't sound unrealistic.
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > they need 10 Asian users for every US American user? Assuming the tenth Asian user (a) is as lucrative as the first and (b) costs 1/10th as much to provide services to as an American user, sure. I'm doubtful about those assumptions. And this is all just for treading water.
    - fwn 8y ago
      The tenth Asian user is not as lucrative as the first. Those numbers have to be averages.
puranjay 8y ago
The trouble is that the people who are fooled by Facebook in emerging markets aren't likely to be a big source of profit for Facebook. In India, for instance, Facebook is especially popular among old people like my parents, or poorer people. The former won't spent much money online because habit. The latter don't have much money to spend.

thinkingemote 8y ago

I'm inclined to agree, but am reminded of the Dropbox Vs rsync post on HN. The value to me from it is okay groups family and friends. I can write a facebook clone which does all the things I like in a month or so, but that's kind of missing the point.

therealdrag0 8y ago

The market value is not value to users, it's value to advertisers.

slantaclaus 8y ago

P/E is in the thirties. I have to disagree here. Google has had a PE in the thirties since 2006