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This is interesting. I would consider the number of maximum possible people who can have a Facebook account is probably closer to 3.07 billion - 772 million int

by aylmao 8y ago

This is interesting. I would consider the number of maximum possible people who can have a Facebook account is probably closer to 3.07 billion - 772 million internet users in China [1], which means closer to 2.3 billion. I doubt Facebook, at 2.23 billion users is that close to making all possible users MAUs (96.95% penetration? Yikes!), which makes me believe the age distribution of Internet users is different. Counting bots, this moves to (2.23 billion - 270 million [2]) / 2.3 billion = ~85.22%. This is still very high, but interestingly closer to the number at which Facebook users maybe have stabilized in the US/Canada region. I wrote a comment on another thread about this (sources referenced are on the original comment): "I can see the decline in Europe being unsettling, but I'm not really surprised about US/Canada. ~185 million is about 52% of the population of US/Canada. If we assume 35% of the population is simply too young to use it (20% under 14) or too old to be drawn to it (15% is over 65), that leaves only 13% of US/Canada's population which are feasible MAUs no being MAU, which is crazy." [3] I'm guessing here that Facebook has reached 87% of possible users in the region, based on age as an approximation for internet/Facebook use. I wonder how far off these quick calculations are ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. [1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/265140/number-of-internet-users-in-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/265140/number-of-interne... [2]: https://mashable.com/2017/11/02/facebook-phony-accounts-admission/#sxCkkvtJkPqI https://mashable.com/2017/11/02/facebook-phony-accounts-admi... [3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17614830 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17614830

randomsearch 8y ago
You’re assuming each MAU is a unique person, which is obviously incorrect. MAU is a bad stat anyway. DAU broken down into precise categories, with compensation for duplicate accounts, would be a great stat. I don’t use Facebook for any serious time but there will probably be at least one time per month when I log in to look something up. I’m on the site for a few minutes at most. If I did one google search per month would you care about it as a google investor? The day my Mum told me that she had “decided to use Facebook less” due to their shitty behaviour was the day I decided Facebook were screwed. What I’m fascinated by is what the endgame is for Facebook. It’s still useful in some sense, the world probably needs a Facebook. If it died it would be replaced by something else. So I think the most likely outcome is it will sit at some level where it’s hard for a competitor to dislodge it, but it doesn’t get used much and it doesn’t make much money.
- aylmao 8y ago
  I mean, they reported 42 percent year-over-year growth in ad revenue and 11 percent year-over-year growth in monthly and daily active users. I don't know enough to tell if this is the start of the end game, but in spite of missing the (very) high expectations Wall Street had for them it I'd say it's inaccurate to say "it doesn’t get used much and it doesn’t make much money".
  - randomsearch 8y ago
    > I'd say it's inaccurate to say "it doesn’t get used much and it doesn’t make much money". Maybe it wasn't clear from my post, but this was a prediction for the future and not a statement about the present.

by aylmao 8y ago

randomsearch 8y ago

You’re assuming each MAU is a unique person, which is obviously incorrect. MAU is a bad stat anyway. DAU broken down into precise categories, with compensation for duplicate accounts, would be a great stat. I don’t use Facebook for any serious time but there will probably be at least one time per month when I log in to look something up. I’m on the site for a few minutes at most. If I did one google search per month would you care about it as a google investor? The day my Mum told me that she had “decided to use Facebook less” due to their shitty behaviour was the day I decided Facebook were screwed. What I’m fascinated by is what the endgame is for Facebook. It’s still useful in some sense, the world probably needs a Facebook. If it died it would be replaced by something else. So I think the most likely outcome is it will sit at some level where it’s hard for a competitor to dislodge it, but it doesn’t get used much and it doesn’t make much money.

aylmao 8y ago
I mean, they reported 42 percent year-over-year growth in ad revenue and 11 percent year-over-year growth in monthly and daily active users. I don't know enough to tell if this is the start of the end game, but in spite of missing the (very) high expectations Wall Street had for them it I'd say it's inaccurate to say "it doesn’t get used much and it doesn’t make much money".
- randomsearch 8y ago
  > I'd say it's inaccurate to say "it doesn’t get used much and it doesn’t make much money". Maybe it wasn't clear from my post, but this was a prediction for the future and not a statement about the present.