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Facebook stock drops more than 20% after revenue forecast misses

618 points by noncoml 8y ago

deleted 8y ago
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utopcell 8y ago
From the article: ``The company reported 1.47 billion daily active users, while Wall Street expected 1.49 billion; it logged 2.23 billion monthly active users, as analysts expected 2.25 billion.'' It doesn't feel like the results justify the 20% drop.
- cm2187 8y ago
  I presume the dollar value of a US or European user to advertisers is greater than that of an Indian or African user. European user count going down is problematic. But the problem with these after hours sessions is that they don't have much liquidity and that you can easily have a market squeeze due to people covering their position. This is what happened with the VIX ETNs.
  - zeusk 8y ago
    Everyone but most retail investors can trade during AH, while the liquidity may be lower - I'd say the participating agents are more logical and have enough capital to drive big moves.
    - briandear 8y ago
      Retail investors can easily trade after hours. With Fidelity, it’s a simple check box/request to enable it.
  - samfisher83 8y ago
    There have been 34 million shares traded after hours. Avg volume during the day is 19 mil.
  - jfim 8y ago
    From their last quarterly report, quarterly ARPU is 25.91 for US/Canada users, 8.76 for European users, 2.62 for APAC users, and 1.91 for the rest of the world. It's likely that European and US/Canada user count growth is flat or nearly so, and their gains recently have been out of getting more dollars per user through increasing advertising revenue as opposed to getting more users. It could be (or not) that they can grow those revenues even more.
- deleted 8y ago
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- kbyatnal 8y ago
  You missed this from their earnings. “Our total revenue growth rates will continue to decelerate in the second half of 2018, and we expect our revenue growth rates to decline by high single-digit percentages from prior quarters sequentially in both Q3 and Q4."
- jessedhillon 8y ago
  The numbers have been growing continuously since the beginning, until this quarter[1]. Traders are reacting to the idea of "peak Facebook" -- that is, an end to growth -- and not just a 1.4% drop in DAU. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...
  - matthewaveryusa 8y ago
    And even more so -- their guidance was pretty terrible for the next couple quarters.
- everdev 8y ago
  I think it's more about their revenue miss and some concern about their scandals impacting revenue. > The company’s top line was $13.04 billion, weaker than $13.34 billion analysts expected, suggesting that the world’s largest social network has begun to feel some of the effects of the controversies that have battered it during the quarter.
- uptown 8y ago
  Facebook MAU was flat in the U.S. and Canada. It declined in Europe. Expect total expense growth to exceed revenue growth in 2019. Also expect revenue growth rates to decline by high single digit percentages from prior quarters sequentially in Q3 and Q4. They painted a rough road ahead compared to how the stock had been valued in many people’s models.
  - aylmao 8y ago
    I can see the decline in Europe being unsettling, but I'm not really surprised about US/Canada. ~185 million is about 52% of the population of US/Canada [3]. If we assume 35% of the population is simply too young to use it (20% under 14 [2]) or too old to be drawn to it (15% is over 65 [1]), that leaves only 13% of US/Canada's population which are feasible MAUs no being MAU, which is crazy. [1]: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff08.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17... [2]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS [3]: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=185+million+people+%2F+(population+of+USA+%2B+population+of+Canada) https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=185+million+people+%2F...
    - mynameisvlad 8y ago
      Yes, and that's a massive problem. They reached probably what is close to their peak capacity and need to find ways to extract more money out of their existing MAUs because those numbers are stagnant or dropping.
      - aylmao 8y ago
        Is it safe to say they're now tied to economic growth in developing nations? I'm sure they'll find ways to make more money out of rich countries for the sake of short-term growth, but if India alone is over 1 billion people, it's interesting to think that over the long term their revenue will depend on the increase of purchasing power in that and other developing nations. Of course if they're still dominant when this happens.
- lostmsu 8y ago
  What about time spent by active users? They can still be active, all right, but not so much.
- refurb 8y ago
  It doesn't feel like the results justify the 20% drop. You have to remember one main way analysts estimate what a share is worth today - they model out time-discounted earnings in perpetuity. A company that is expected to grow in the future is worth much more today than a company that isn't expected to grow at all. The stock didn't drop because they missed this quarter alone, it's because all the analysts models are now assuming future earnings will grow much more slowly into the foreseeable future.
- mtgx 8y ago
  Markets tend to over-optimize. That's why I warned caution when many were saying the Cambridge Analytica scandal didn't harm Facebook, even though it was obvious FB was being quite misleading about what was actually impacted at the time and about the fact that their good results were actually given by the stuff that had happened before Cambridge Analytica. Over-optimization means that even when a string of bad news hit, the stock may not change much because of the previous string of good news still having inertia and the market "not really believing" the new bad stories. But eventually the market sentiment changes, and then it all comes crashing down, and now the bad news are over-optimized, and the good news become irrelevant. And the cycle repeats itself. This is harder to see with stock because it tends to happen over a multi-year span, but it's much easier to see with cryptocurrencies where this happens over a several months period.
- jmknoll 8y ago
  Can that statistic be interpreted as 65% of people who use Facebook at all use it every day? That’s some pretty impressive stickiness
- mrweasel 8y ago
  The issue isn't that Facebook isn't doing fine, it's that they missed their forecasts. Wall Street wants predictability and if you can't predictably forecast your next quarter/fiscal year, then you become a liability. You could have a bad quarter and not get punished (too much) for it, assuming that your forecast was correct.
- westpfelia 8y ago
  well when you have a PE ratio of 33 anything but forward progress is bad.
- woodpanel 8y ago
  > It doesn't feel like the results justify the 20% drop. Neither does it for me. FB is still the only real GOOGL competitor in the ad market. It's revenue and market share is growing. All it has to do is extracting more money from its huge user base, which at least with instagram it hasn't really tried for now. Employing content reviewers won't come cheap, but that investment is going to be faced by all social media platforms and in turn will be sector neutral. Facing regulatory burdens with measures like this helps the big ones manifest their oligopol. While I can echo most HNers sentiment (I too decreased my FB usage before and after the CA scandal) I think we are not precisely the best socio-economic group to serve as indicator for what drives people or doesn't: Most people are happy to share on social media platforms (no matter how repugnant I feel about it) and there is no social media real estate like FB or IG around. Fundamentally it's still cheaper than GOOGL in terms of P/E and just costs half of what GOOGL costs for every $ of FCF.
everdev 8y ago
> Wehner also said Facebook still expects expenses to grow 50% to 60% from last year > “But as I’ve said on past calls, we’re investing so much in security that it will significantly impact our profitability,” Zuckerberg said. “We’re starting to see that this quarter.” That sounds like a big 1-year jump. From what I can tell, the big Facebook scandals (fake news, Cambridge Analytica) came from faults in company policies rather than security glitches. I wonder if labeling it "security" is a PR thing as their web ads all focus on FB taking active steps to make sure those types of scandals don't happen again.
- Bucephalus355 8y ago
  To be fair, security is an amazing amount of policy. I took and passed the CISSP, and that exam must be at least 30%, maybe 40% policy. Things like knowing how does the Commerce Department’s rule of Safe Harbor apply to US companies doing business in EU. Stuff like that. That being said, it made me way better at my job. No matter how many technical justifications I have for why we should implement X, the second I brought up a small to medium legal thing everyone would fix it immediately.
  - paxy 8y ago
    But how do policy changes result in a 50% increase in total expenses? They can't be hiring that many lawyers.
    - xxorlak 8y ago
      Implementation of policies has a waterfall effect throughout the org. EG: Adding something as simple as a privilege expiration (generic example) and propagating it through the org and various teams itself will take time.
    - bobdole12345 8y ago
      They're hiring 2/3rd more employees to act as content moderators from the sounds of the guidance.
ebikelaw 8y ago
Well, the stock dropped a bit after the report, but then it fell off a cliff during the call. It must be the forecast and not the results that is really spooking people.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- geetfun 8y ago
  The guidance is nice. It resets expectation, especially amongst the analyst community. Makes it easier for FB to beat expectations the next time around.
- gnopgnip 8y ago
  How are stock price drops reported when the market is closed?
  - ebikelaw 8y ago
    The same way they are reported when it's open: approximately, with the cooperation of the various market makers.
  - mortehu 8y ago
    The closing auction signifies the end of regular trading hours (where more rules are in effect) but not the end of all trading. US stocks now trade 24/5 on at least one market, and well beyond 4pm ET on many more.
XJOKOLAT 8y ago
Good.
yalph 8y ago
Its mostly because of the guidance, not the miss.
drewmol 8y ago
>"and at the same time, it was encouraging to see the vast majority of people affirm that though want us to use context, including from web sites this they visit, to make our ads more relevant and improve their overall product experience.” I assume the vast majority clicked 'Agree' or similar on prompts about updated policies, but it's funny to phrase it this way. Obviously if asked directly, the vast majority would't actually affirm that.
godgod 8y ago
Why people still use facebook is beyond me. It's a platform where you are the product. Your privacy is for sale.
Animats 8y ago
The market has expected this for years. Look at Facebook's declining P/E ratio.[1] 81 in 2005. 22 now. Successful established companies have P/E ratios in the 10-20 range. Facebook is coming in for a landing as an established company, ending its growth company phase. This is a normal part of the corporate life cycle. [1] https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/pe-ratio https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/pe-ratio
- dawhizkid 8y ago
  You cannot say a 20% drop AH is "expected" by investors. If this was truly "expected" then the slowing growth would've been long accounted for in the price.
  - perl4ever 8y ago
    I think you* have unreasonable expectations for precision in valuation. 20% is not a large fluctuation in the context of the unlimited future of a company. Something truly unexpected would make an order of magnitude difference. *but you're not alone.
    - what_ever 8y ago
      How is 20% not a large fluctuation? That doesn't make sense. If you want absolute numbers it's $130 Billions. Almost worth 4 Twitters.
      - metamicah 8y ago
        That 20% drop brought its stock value back to where it was a year ago, which was an all-time high for it then. Investors that have held it for longer than a year can still sell it at a profit.
        what_ever 8y ago
        But no one is talking about investors holding stocks for more than a year in this comment chain. That's tangential to this comment chain, sorry. And to your point, investors could have sold for over 25% of profit as well if they had sold it earlier today. So I still stand by saying that this is huge change. Besides, this thread is not about long term, just invest in index funds so I just fail to see the point.
bigtones 8y ago
Yhis was all after the bell as was the earnings announcement, and the quoted stock drop was in the after hours trading market, so it could be less tomorrow in the standard market.
- ebikelaw 8y ago
  It's funny to suggest that after hours trading means less. The people trading during the regular session were literally just gambling, whereas the people trading in the after are trading on new fundamental information. What I'd really like to know about today's regular session is why seven billion dollars worth of shares changed hands on the last tick.
  - zeusk 8y ago
    > What I'd really like to know about today's regular session is why seven billion dollars worth of shares changed hands on the last tick. Not all trades are reported real-time; Dark pool executions are often bulk reported prior to end of day settlement.
- jonknee 8y ago
  What happened before they whiffed on earnings doesn't matter, new information came out and the market ran away from Facebook like it was contagious. 32,725,304 FB shares have traded after the bell, that is a "real market". The 10-day average daily volume is ~17.5m so this is hugely significant.
untog 8y ago
Interesting to note that this is currently #2 on HN, while a discussion about fake news/free speech on Facebook was immediately flagged off the home page as soon as it arrived: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17613810 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17613810 I'd be curious to hear from those who flagged that Facebook story and not this one: why is that one inappropriate for HN and this one fine?
- jmspring 8y ago
  "Verified users should be able to post what ever they want" quoting someone from FB was a headline I recall flying by on multiple news sites today.
- ageek123 8y ago
  Because the thread you mentioned is about politics. Political discussion may be allowed on HN, but most people don't like them, as they're completely non-productive and just get everyone angry at each other.
  - untog 8y ago
    Seems silly to think that politics goes away if you just don't talk about it. Facebook recently had an entire ad campaign around reducing the toxicity on the platform - surely a discussion of that has a place when talking about earnings or lack thereof.
    - hueving 8y ago
      >Seems silly to think that politics goes away if you just don't talk about it They go away from this platform, which is what matters. There are a million other platforms for everyone to share their shitty political propaganda, let's at least try to keep this one clean.
      - untog 8y ago
        I don't think you know what the word "propaganda" means. It's interesting which people share this problem.
AzzieElbab 8y ago
Bots to the rescue?
ceohockey60 8y ago
The pessimistic guidance dovetails well with Zuckerberg's recent, wide-ranging interview with Kara Swisher[1]. FB has been the darling of tech and general media, until the last 2 years--turning a great brand to an increasingly toxic one. By Zuckerberg's own estimation, FB's "retooling" needs 3 years, and they are about 1 1/2 years in, so the guidance reflects that timeline. If they deliver on that timeline, a rough 2nd half of 2018 and all of 2019 is to be expected. [1] https://www.recode.net/2018/7/18/17575156/mark-zuckerberg-interview-facebook-recode-kara-swisher https://www.recode.net/2018/7/18/17575156/mark-zuckerberg-in...
bradenb 8y ago
I think the stock price is finally catching up to reality and public perception. I've noticed a huge resistance to using Facebook in recent years within my social sphere. Professionally, I'm one of the few that I know that still use the service; I think it's FOMO keeping me on, but I find it extremely difficult to add content to my profile and find myself mostly acting as a passive consumer of others' content.
- mattbeckman 8y ago
  Install Newsfeed eradicator and then remove the app from your phone. Brought me down to maybe check the site once every couple weeks for notifications.
- rajataghi 8y ago
  But the thing is that the same people resisting Facebook are spending more and more time on Instagram....which is owned by facebook.
  - astronautjones 8y ago
    but ig is so much harder to advertise / convert on
    - robjan 8y ago
      Pretty much anyone who has a brand that targets millennials advertises on IG. I see dozens of Kickstarter products and re-targeting from e-commerce around the web.
- mrep 8y ago
  They have over a billion daily active users. That is more than the EU and the US COMBINED! Any personal opinions about a product are practically useless when your customer base is that freaking large and diverse. Edit: I avoid facebook like what seems like most other people here on hacker news but my point is that hacker news is in no way shape or form representative of the global population.
cs702 8y ago
User growth is slowing down to a crawl: * There are 4.16 billion Internet users worldwide.[a] * 26.3% of the world's population is under 14 years old, close to Facebook's minimum age of 13.[b] This means 73.7% of the world's population is at least 14 years old. * If we assume the population of Internet users has a similar age distribution as the world's population, that means there are around 4.16 * 73.7% = 3.07 billion Internet users who are at least 14 years old. This is a rough estimate of the maximum possible number of people who can have an account with Facebook today, i.e., the size of the company's addressable market (in users, not dollars). * The true size of Facebook's addressable market could be higher (for example, if the age distribution of Internet users is different)... but it could also be significantly lower (for example, if a substantial number of Internet users cannot or will not join Facebook due to religious, cultural, or governmental restrictions, or due to the availability of established regional alternatives). * Facebook just reported monthly active users of 2.23 billion, up only 11% from 2.01 billion a year ago.[c] This isn't exactly stellar user growth. The company now has around 73% penetration of every person in the planet who can join Facebook today. Again, this is a rough estimate. * The company's CFO disclosed in today's quarterly earnings call that the company expects a "deceleration" in growth.[d] [a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet... [b] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_... [c] https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Facebook-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Results/default.aspx https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/... [d] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/facebook-warns-investors-of-weakening-revenue-in-second-half-of-2018.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/facebook-warns-investors-of-... -- EDITS: I updated the global Internet usage figures based on dooglius's comment below (the Wikipedia page is outdated). I also expanded significantly on my original post to make my facts and reasoning as clear as possible to others here.
- dooglius 8y ago
  The first citation on that Wikipedia page [0] has been updated to an estimate of 4.16 billion internet users as of Dec 31, 2017. [0] https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
patrickg_zill 8y ago
As well, Facebook announced that they were going to set up a new incubator in China. Then today or yesterday their permission to do so was yanked by Chinese authorities. EDIT: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-25/just-hours-after-approval-china-kills-new-facebook-venture https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-25/just-hours-after-a... summary of stories from NYT, Reuters, etc. on this matter
- hemantv 8y ago
  I don't like the Chinese government at all. But at least there is a powerful force against stopping this company from infecting all of the humanity. I just wish India would take a similar stand and then game over for Facebook.
hemantv 8y ago
This company is the drug dealer of Silicon Valley. They have consciously destroyed a generation attention span using psychological tricks. Hoping they start losing some of the good talent + the US implement something similar to GDPR.
- Tloewald 8y ago
  You should look into the career of B.J. Fogg. https://www.bjfogg.com/ https://www.bjfogg.com/ He literally teaches his students how to make psychologically addictive products and is proud of it (and rich). His disciples are the priests of "engagement".
  - giantsloth 8y ago
    Reading his website makes him seem less like a master of anything serious and more a master at self aggrandizing douche baggery. B=MAP reads much like any self helpy gimmick, something so obvious and so useless you somehow feel smart for having had your obvious thoughts on a topic reworded and handed back to you in corny new configuration you can share with your vapid fake friend group.
    - SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
      > Reading his website makes him seem less like a master of anything serious and more a master at self aggrandizing douche baggery. Sounds like 90% of the "business" books I've read
- mancerayder 8y ago
  But surely they're not the only villains. It began with pop-up ads in the old days, evolving to that interstitial nightmare. Mobile notifications of almost anything, combined with a snaring in of people's attention using human weaknesses: need for attention and validation, frailty with regards to gossip, need to find a way to procrastinate during difficult times (work) and much more that I'm missing. It's time for some serious scholarship in the psychological arena in this direction.
nadim 8y ago
20p discount on FB today
mhh__ 8y ago
Time to buy discount facebook stock?
- le-mark 8y ago
  I don't have the sense this is a bottom by any means. Certainly there will be a bounce but I expect to see long term decline (imo).
stevehawk 8y ago
Completely anecdotal but I enjoy hating on facebook - I created an account so I could create ads for my new business.. I have no idea what's going on but the only page it ever serves me is "sorry something went wrong." so clearly they're missing out on my $5/day ad budget.
- SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
  Their ad platform doesn't play nicely with ad blockers. Maybe that's the cause of your issues?
  - SamUK96 8y ago
    Now that...would be ironic.
  - stevehawk 8y ago
    The ad creation tool is working fine. It's the "Page" I created. Can't view it, modify it, publish it, etc, i just get the error page. And because of that I can't launch an ad campaign.
chrischen 8y ago
If only facebook helped me achieve my goals rather than trying to manipulate me to give them attention with the lowest hanging fruit.
mtgx 8y ago
When Facebook posted good returns and stock didn't drop right after Cambridge Analytica many were gloating about how that is "proof" that the privacy scandal didn't affect Facebook and that no privacy scandal will ever affect Facebook. But they were simply not looking closely enough. And as I said back then, you need to give this sort of things time to see the real effects, like at least until the end of the year. Because I believe the worst is still ahead of Facebook. Facebook is now on a downwards path, and it's irreversible. Facebook is now officially Blackberry. And just like with Blackberry before, many dismissed the fundamental issues of the company while blindly following the "record quarters" Blackberry kept having until 2009. If they had just looked closely enough, they would've seen that BB's core North American market was on a steep decline path and it was also obvious that its phones were nowhere near as good as iPhones or Android phones. Just look at what's happening to Facebook engagement. Ignore Facebook's sugarcoating. Look how the people around you are using Facebook and what they say about it.
- aylmao 8y ago
  > When Facebook posted good returns and stock didn't drop right after Cambridge Analytica many were gloating about how that is "proof" that the privacy scandal didn't affect Facebook and that no privacy scandal will ever affect Facebook. > But they were simply not looking closely enough. And as I said back then, you need to give this sort of things time to see the real effects, like at least until the end of the year. I agree. > Because I believe the worst is still ahead of Facebook. Facebook is now on a downwards path, and it's irreversible. I don't think I agree. Facebook still has many opportunities for user and revenue growth in Instagram and WhatsApp. As far as being irreversible, Microsoft was in a very dire position too and now it's having record-breaking quarters. It'll largely depend on leadership and direction. > Facebook is now officially Blackberry. And just like with Blackberry before, many dismissed the fundamental issues of the company while blindly following the "record quarters" Blackberry kept having until 2009. If they had just looked closely enough, they would've seen that BB's core North American market was on a steep decline path and it was also obvious that its phones were nowhere near as good as iPhones or Android phones. One bad quarter doesn't make a company "officially Blackberry". IIRC, Blackberry didn't release it first touch-screen phone until 2013 (5 years after the iPhone) and it's first Android phone until 2015 (8 years after the iPhone). It was their stubbornness quarter after quarter, year after year that sank them-- they weren't dead the minute the iPhone was released just like Samsung wasn't. They should've just played smart and embraced Android/touchscreens from the get-go. Will Facebook remain stubborn or will it gain trust back? I don't know. Calling it dead already is a huge oversimplification though. > Just look at what's happening to Facebook engagement. Ignore Facebook's sugarcoating. Look how the people around you are using Facebook and what they say about it. The people around me are not an accurate sample of all Facebook users around the world. In my case, I see a lot of people using Facebook for Events and Marketplace. I see everyone on Instagram. The real data is in the numbers. Facebook's website falling behind Reddit is telling, but Instagram and WhatsApp surpassing Snapchat's stories also is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
alifpunk 8y ago
Time to buy discount facebook stock?
pbreit 8y ago
Since GOOG had good earnings, safe to say this isn't reflective of broader market/economy?
noncoml 8y ago
> Wehner said a combination of currency headwinds, new privacy controls, and new experiences like Stories will contribute to the deceleration I remember the day Chambers Saif Cisco hit an air pocket. Since then it has only been layoffs, cuts and austerity for Cisco. Never really recovered. Is it the same day for FB? > Cisco on Wednesday reported healthy profit and sales gains for its fiscal first quarter, in line with Wall Street expectations. But a host of challenges -- including losses in public sector accounts and in specific product areas like set-top boxes -- coupled with a less-than-invigorating sales forecast for the current quarter, were enough to send Cisco's shares tumbling. > Cisco CEO John Chambers, on Cisco's Q1 conference call, described the challenges as hitting an "air pocket," and was bullish on many of the areas in which Cisco excelled. But he set a subdued tone for the call, especially with the forecast that second quarter revenues would increase only about 3 to 5 percent, and a forecast that revenue growth for fiscal 2011 overall would be 9 to 12 percent, well below both the 13 percent for Q2 and the 13.1 percent for FY11 predicted by analysts. > Specifically, said Chambers, orders came in over $500 million below Cisco's initial Q1 sales forecast.
trhway 8y ago
that explains recent what looks like layoffs at FB. I was surprised to learn that several people in my extended network have been very recently and unexpectedly kicked out from FB.
ardy42 8y ago
Facebook can't be doing well: they're running ads on the New York Times app, trying to convince me to join. And these aren't flattering ads either: they emphasize that I'd be joining "2 billion users" and that "it's free to sign up." They're bargain basement and have a desperate vibe.
- anonytrary 8y ago
  I'm a young millennial and I'm sure that I'm suffering from a bias here* -- but I'm actually surprised they would need to take out ads in the NYT, given what their product is. I just find it so hard to believe that a significant number of people in the US haven't heard of Facebook or haven't any close friends who use Facebook. If the number wasn't significant, then I don't know why they would need to take out ads. Unless you've been living under a rock, if you're my age, then you have had more than enough time to figure out whether Facebook is your cup of tea. *I am probably underestimating how many older folks are completely out-of-the-loop with Facebook.
  - aggie 8y ago
    Many universally-recognized brands still advertise, because advertising isn't just about mere awareness of a product. It brings the product to mind and can continue to shape perception. The returns on advertising certainly diminish as you saturate awareness, but some level of maintenance is still worth doing.
  - orbifold 8y ago
    They ran a full page ad this week in the FAZ the German equivalent of the NYT basically apologizing and promising to follow a new set of values.
    - anonytrary 8y ago
      This week!? I thought they did that a few weeks ago because of Cambridge Analytica? What did they do this time?
  - mcbits 8y ago
jhanschoo 8y ago
In my opinion, among all the tech behemoths, it is Amazon that has the best long-term (stock) prospects. Whereas most tech companies build their businesses on ephemeral software-based services, Amazon possesses logistics and infrastructure that are among the best in the world.
- lawrenceyan 8y ago
  JD.com has far better logistics and infrastructure. They also don't send you fake products when you order online as their guarantees seem to actually mean something unlike Amazon.
  - StudentStuff 8y ago
    Seriously, a guy I know that works over at Amazon was horrified at the trash that Amazon Fresh delivered to his house both times he tried it. Rusty, leaking canned goods and a mix of average to damaged produce does not make one want to be a repeat customer, even if you want to support your own company. JD.com with their heavily automated warehouses seems like they've eliminated a major cost center, it'll be curious to see if its just nearly fully automated to the press, or actually significantly better than Amazon/Ingram Micro & the other major human based warehouse wholesalers out there.
yotamoron 8y ago
Faacebook is hugely overvalued. Its actual value for its users is far less then perceived. You can't fool all the people all the time, and the day will come that people will realize it. I'm all for social networks (and making good profit from operating them), they have a key role in democratizing the global society, its just that facebook is abusing our basic psychological needs to make money.
- qubex 8y ago
  Since the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke I’ve disabled notifications on my phone and find myself pressing it perhaps 30 minutes a week rather than what was probably almost an hour a day. Even giving it half an hour of my time seems like a bit of a bad habit I should cut out. I never relied on it for news, ignored the ads, and generally really tried to use it exclusively to maintain the potential for contact with the diaspora of worldwide friends and acquaintances and their sometimes-shifting contact details.
  - SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
    I deleted the app and just use the mobile website when I want to occasionally check what friends and family are up to. Much less of a distraction and battery life is much improved. I also started using Messenger Lite now instead of the full-blown Messenger. That said, it seems very rare my friends or family actually post anything these days. Mostly I use it for a handful of specialist groups which could just as easily be replaced with forums.
    - yotamoron 8y ago
      I completely deleted my FB account well over 3 years ago, and never looked back. After the initial panic subsided, life become much better.
- samstave 8y ago
  What I would really like to know, is the correlation between the FB IPO and the rental prices around the valley going up at the time. Just prior to the FB IPO, I lived about two blocks from the then CIO or CTO of FB (cant recall his name - this was just as Asana was getting a lot of buzz as well) -- and I was looking for a new apartment in Noe Valley. I recall that a place that I saw going for $3,000 per month took an immediate jump to $7,000 per month days after the IPO and they wanted a $10,000 security deposit... Other rents went up as well. My overall point being, that it sucks, but is interesting, to see how tech company IPOs impact overall COL - but when comments such as "FB is hugely overvalued" are made, and instances where FBs value drops - the damage to real COL has an impact radius thats already happened and far more reaching than simply to those who benefit/suffer from their personal stock holdings' value... Its the reality of the world/market - but lets imagine FB ceasing to exist magically... COL/rents will not adjust accordingly. So, while I don't personally care about FB's value - I am interested in how much the entirety of COL is affected by any tech success/failure throughout silicon valley... How are these types of factors evaluated by economists?
alismayilov 8y ago
Facebook is very valuable in countries where press freedom is not good (if facebook is not blocked yet). My country (Azerbaijan) is one of the worst countries in terms of press freedom. The only “free press” we have is a facebook. There are many goverment’s trolls, but everybody understands when trolls write something (trolls get average salary). On the other hand, goverment follows oppositions’ discussions on facebook and responds accordingly. That is the only platform we have now goverment and oppositions speak with each other.
- scandox 8y ago
  Well at least your trolls are paid. A lot of our trolls seem to be volunteers.
  - spdionis 8y ago
    Probably the volunteer ones are the most realistic and dangerous.
    - Cthulhu_ 8y ago
      Yup, I'm fairly sure the online Trump hype train was 10% trolls and 90% people tagging along for the ride. Then again it died reeeally fast right after the election, so now I'm not sure anymore.
      - thetrumanshow 8y ago
        Or more abstractly: influencers and followers. What makes them trolls, exactly? Also, no surprise things die down after an election, since it’s not the hot topic anymore.
  - r00fus 8y ago
    How certain are you that they're actually volunteers? Astroturf seems to be a lot more lifelike these days.
    - 8y ago
2sk21 8y ago
One thing I have been wondering - how will they monetize WhatsApp?
- jquast 8y ago
  Haven't they already monetized on WhatsApp? They've already been able to gather a massive amount of social graph data and personal details, phone number, location information. If they made any amount of value on WhatsApp data, the users are never informed. I think the only way to really know is to join as an employee and find out what they do/did with it. The only thing we are aware of is advertising when we see it, everything else is nebulous.
  - 2sk21 8y ago
    Agreed - WhatsApp data is getting added to their social graph for sure. However, they have not yet made any attempt so far to, say, inject ads into chats or on the app itself. Despite their statement of end-to-end security, they still control the end points, so this kind of ad injection could be compatible.
- tomaskafka 8y ago
  They do. It's a data gathering platform for better ad targetting of people who don't know Whatsapp belongs to FB (= everyone minus few nerds)
JumpCrisscross 8y ago
Deletion is too extreme for most people. More reasonable: escalating partial dis-engagement. Here's what my friends and I did, sequentially, over the years: 1. Turn off notifications for the Facebook app on your phone; 2. Turn off notifications for the Facebook Messenger, Instagram, et cetera apps on your phone; 3. Delete the Facebook app from your phone; 4. Delete the Facebook Messenger, Instagram, et cetera apps from your phone; and finally 5. Log out of Facebook on your desktop. It took me 2 years to go through from step 1 to step 5. It has made me happier and more productive. I still have a Facebook account. But the friction of grabbing my laptop and logging in forces me to consider "is this what I want to do? Or am I thoughtlessly reaching for the crack pipe?"
- bariswheel 8y ago
  Turning off notifications for messenger ("We noticed notifications are off, would you like to turn it on? Yes/No), I kid you not, took at least 30 to 40 times as of a few months ago for it to stop bugging me to turn it back on. Few months before that, 25 times at least. Who knows what that number is now. That kind of engagement should be flat out illegal or regulated.
  - froindt 8y ago
    It has the same persistence if you haven't posted in awhile. I haven't posted a status in over a year, and the first few months I got countless notifications along the lines of "OMG YOU HAVEN'T POSTED IN ___ WEEKS! GET STARTED AGAIN". Also, there's no reason for a "starter message" and prompt when I add a friend.
    - thinkingemote 8y ago
      I'm sure once you do post something after a prolonged absence that they somehow highlight your post to everyone much more than it would normally appear. I once went through a long tedious process of manually deleting posts and photos and after a while I got a very increased interaction on older images, not newer. Interaction from people who wouldn't normally comment, either.
apexalpha 8y ago
Delete the apps. Use website for facebook and Messenger Lite if you must. These apps are the new sigarettes.
edw519 8y ago
2007 High school acquaintance: Join us on facebook! Me: What for? So you can treat me like shit like you did in high school? 2008 Cousin: Join us on facebook, so you can stay in touch. Me: Why don't you just tell me what's happening like you always have? Then we can shoot the shit and laugh and talk and gossip, just us two, like we always have? 2009 Neighbor: Why don't you join our community group on facebook so you can see what's going on? Me: I'll just pay my dues and spend my time on what's really important to me. 2010 Work associate: Why don't you work at facebook? Everywhere else is lame. Me: Because lots of other places are doing cool stuff that really matters. 2011 Friend: I can't believe you're still not on facebook. Everyone is! Me: Your 2 sentences contradict each other. 2012 Me: Why didn't you invite me to your wedding? Fraternity brother: Because you're not on facebook. Me: Lame. And classless. 2013 Sister-in-law: Your business cannot succeed unless it has a presence on facebook. Me: Really? I just had my best year ever. 2014 Local business: See what we're up to on facebook. Me: I just go somewhere with their own website. 2015 Me: Why didn't you answer my emails? Friend: Why didn't you just message me? Me: What's that? 2016 Work friend: How do you manage to get so damn much work done? Me: Because I'm not spending hours every day on facebook on my phone. I'm too busy building stuff. 2017 Business guru: A following on facebook is not nearly as effective as a good email list. There's too much noise for the signal. Me: You don't say? 2018 Almost everyone: What have we done?!? facebook is ruining everything! Our privacy is gone! How do we get off? Me: I get off every day. The old fashioned way.
- deepaksurti 8y ago
  Now when some one asks me why I am not on FB, I will just redirect to this :-). Thanks and I thank myself for having not wasted even a second on any Social NW site, not that I look down on others who do. To each his own, for me staying away helped and I profited!
  - fosco 8y ago
    HN is a social networking site, it is the only one I use. but I am spending time reading these comments... and probably do not want tknow the total time per week I spend on this site, I might cry because my excuse of not having time to exercise could be wrong.
adarsh_thampy 8y ago
I deleted my Facebook account more than 2 years ago. Installed Instagram to test what the fuss was about. But uninstalled it in a day. The thing that's still Facebook and major part of my life is WhatsApp. Chit chats, group discussions, and calls with family back home all happen through WhatsApp. Couldn't transition to other apps because most people in my family and friends circle don't really care about privacy or data security. They prefer convenience. Without them switching, it's going to be hard for me to switch.
- sasper 8y ago
  I've been happy as a clam to delete my Facebook and Instagram accounts over the last couple of years, and, like you, WhatsApp is a necessity. I spend 10+ months a year abroad, and WhatsApp has taken over as the default mode of communication. You don't ask for someone's phone number any more, you ask for their WhatsApp. I wonder what it will take for WhatsApp to be dethroned? Perhaps a massive data leak, or proof that their e2e encryption has been knowingly compromised to gather data for Facebook advertising.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- tapoxi 8y ago
  > Couldn't transition to other apps because most people in my family and friends circle don't really care about privacy or data security. They prefer convenience. What's wrong with phone calls and SMS? Granted they're not more secure, but at least they're not Facebook. I don't know any WhatsApp users, so I'm unaware of the advantage.
  - SamuelAdams 8y ago
    My social circles use it because it provides a consistent experience. Some have androids, and some have iPhones. When you have an all iPhone group chat, things work rather well. Liking different texts, animations, etc work well. But when you add a non-iPhone to the mix, the texts are sent sms-style, so you get messages that say "Sam liked X's comment!". It's easier for everyone to use WhatsApp, because that platform provides a consistent experience. Also I can search messages in WhatsApp, I can't find this in iMessage.
tchaffee 8y ago
I haven't seen anyone mention that the drop did not carry over into the regular daytime trading. Am I missing something or is this a non-story by now? I was actually looking forward to buying FB at a 20% discount, but it just did not happen at all during regular trading hours.
- tchaffee 8y ago
  I was totally wrong. Not sure what happened. Maybe I was looking at charts before the market opened?
schnevets 8y ago
I'm seeing a lot of "I deleted and I don't even miss it" comments. I haven't deleted my account just yet, but I only check the news feed once a week. Taking this anecdotal evidence into account, I wonder if it's just Facebook's core audience growing out of social media. Sure, Zuckerberg has a bazillion users, but his site started by selectively inviting college students in the early 00's. Those early adopters are now all in their 30s and have better things to do than gossip and post vanity shots all day. Maybe the older audience who joined the site later are losing interest because that core was less active. And then there's the younger generation who actively avoid Facebook and stay connected through a massive spread of other apps/games/sites that are not outright social media outlets. Without a major pivot, this could be big trouble for FB.
shahramjds 8y ago
من در حدود 2 سال پیش به دنبال دریافت نرم افزاری مجبور شدم فیس بوک را نصب کنم تا از طریق ان به برنامه ای که دنبالش بودم دسترسی پیدا کنم.و چون حرفه ای نبودم نتوانستم برنامه دوربین از منبع باز را دریافت کنم.ولی متوجه چیز مهمی در مورد فیس بوک شدم و این بود که این برنامه خیلی فراتر و وسیع تر از این است که فقط یک نرم افزار در ان پیدا کنم و نصب کنم.و به این ترتیب روز به روز علاقمند تر شدم به این برنامه.خیلی از دوستان و همکارانی که سالها از انها بی خبر بودم را پیدا کردم.و از انجاییکه ادم کنجکاوی هستم به دنبال کشف ویژگی های بیشتر در این برنامه هستم و ارزوی من این است که جهانی بدون نزاع و جنگ و درگیری داشته باشیم که همه با هم دوست هستند.و اینکه هیچ بی سوادی در دنیا نباشد.
let_var 8y ago
I deleted Facebook before deleting Facebook was cool. I'm sure there are few good benefits but drawbacks and ads dwarf them all. One more thing - the last time when I met my school buddies back in my hometown, we had more things to share, discuss and appreciate. It really felt good and real. Previously this experience was diluted by constant barrage of FB feed, there was nothing new to share or discuss.
ElijahLynn 8y ago
I have kept my account for the reason that I meet people in real life and that is very valuable to me. I try not to use it for much else, but event discovery and human connections are important enough for me to keep the account.
timtas 8y ago
> The social-media behemoth’s stock lost roughly one-fifth of its value. That's one way to describe it. Another way is, Facebook's stock fell to where it was two months ago, which is 70% over what it was at the start of 2017. I'm not saying that a large one-day drop is insignificant or isn't news. But to paint this as the bottom falling out is unwarranted.

618 points by noncoml 8y ago

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

From the article: ``The company reported 1.47 billion daily active users, while Wall Street expected 1.49 billion; it logged 2.23 billion monthly active users, as analysts expected 2.25 billion.'' It doesn't feel like the results justify the 20% drop.

cm2187 8y ago
I presume the dollar value of a US or European user to advertisers is greater than that of an Indian or African user. European user count going down is problematic. But the problem with these after hours sessions is that they don't have much liquidity and that you can easily have a market squeeze due to people covering their position. This is what happened with the VIX ETNs.
- zeusk 8y ago
  Everyone but most retail investors can trade during AH, while the liquidity may be lower - I'd say the participating agents are more logical and have enough capital to drive big moves.
  - briandear 8y ago
    Retail investors can easily trade after hours. With Fidelity, it’s a simple check box/request to enable it.
- samfisher83 8y ago
  There have been 34 million shares traded after hours. Avg volume during the day is 19 mil.
- jfim 8y ago
  From their last quarterly report, quarterly ARPU is 25.91 for US/Canada users, 8.76 for European users, 2.62 for APAC users, and 1.91 for the rest of the world. It's likely that European and US/Canada user count growth is flat or nearly so, and their gains recently have been out of getting more dollars per user through increasing advertising revenue as opposed to getting more users. It could be (or not) that they can grow those revenues even more.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
kbyatnal 8y ago
You missed this from their earnings. “Our total revenue growth rates will continue to decelerate in the second half of 2018, and we expect our revenue growth rates to decline by high single-digit percentages from prior quarters sequentially in both Q3 and Q4."
jessedhillon 8y ago
The numbers have been growing continuously since the beginning, until this quarter[1]. Traders are reacting to the idea of "peak Facebook" -- that is, an end to growth -- and not just a 1.4% drop in DAU. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-dau/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d...
- matthewaveryusa 8y ago
  And even more so -- their guidance was pretty terrible for the next couple quarters.
everdev 8y ago
I think it's more about their revenue miss and some concern about their scandals impacting revenue. > The company’s top line was $13.04 billion, weaker than $13.34 billion analysts expected, suggesting that the world’s largest social network has begun to feel some of the effects of the controversies that have battered it during the quarter.
uptown 8y ago
Facebook MAU was flat in the U.S. and Canada. It declined in Europe. Expect total expense growth to exceed revenue growth in 2019. Also expect revenue growth rates to decline by high single digit percentages from prior quarters sequentially in Q3 and Q4. They painted a rough road ahead compared to how the stock had been valued in many people’s models.
- aylmao 8y ago
  I can see the decline in Europe being unsettling, but I'm not really surprised about US/Canada. ~185 million is about 52% of the population of US/Canada [3]. If we assume 35% of the population is simply too young to use it (20% under 14 [2]) or too old to be drawn to it (15% is over 65 [1]), that leaves only 13% of US/Canada's population which are feasible MAUs no being MAU, which is crazy. [1]: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17-ff08.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/facts-for-features/2017/cb17... [2]: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS [3]: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=185+million+people+%2F+(population+of+USA+%2B+population+of+Canada) https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=185+million+people+%2F...
  - mynameisvlad 8y ago
    Yes, and that's a massive problem. They reached probably what is close to their peak capacity and need to find ways to extract more money out of their existing MAUs because those numbers are stagnant or dropping.
    - aylmao 8y ago
      Is it safe to say they're now tied to economic growth in developing nations? I'm sure they'll find ways to make more money out of rich countries for the sake of short-term growth, but if India alone is over 1 billion people, it's interesting to think that over the long term their revenue will depend on the increase of purchasing power in that and other developing nations. Of course if they're still dominant when this happens.
lostmsu 8y ago
What about time spent by active users? They can still be active, all right, but not so much.
refurb 8y ago
It doesn't feel like the results justify the 20% drop. You have to remember one main way analysts estimate what a share is worth today - they model out time-discounted earnings in perpetuity. A company that is expected to grow in the future is worth much more today than a company that isn't expected to grow at all. The stock didn't drop because they missed this quarter alone, it's because all the analysts models are now assuming future earnings will grow much more slowly into the foreseeable future.
mtgx 8y ago
Markets tend to over-optimize. That's why I warned caution when many were saying the Cambridge Analytica scandal didn't harm Facebook, even though it was obvious FB was being quite misleading about what was actually impacted at the time and about the fact that their good results were actually given by the stuff that had happened before Cambridge Analytica. Over-optimization means that even when a string of bad news hit, the stock may not change much because of the previous string of good news still having inertia and the market "not really believing" the new bad stories. But eventually the market sentiment changes, and then it all comes crashing down, and now the bad news are over-optimized, and the good news become irrelevant. And the cycle repeats itself. This is harder to see with stock because it tends to happen over a multi-year span, but it's much easier to see with cryptocurrencies where this happens over a several months period.
jmknoll 8y ago
Can that statistic be interpreted as 65% of people who use Facebook at all use it every day? That’s some pretty impressive stickiness
mrweasel 8y ago
The issue isn't that Facebook isn't doing fine, it's that they missed their forecasts. Wall Street wants predictability and if you can't predictably forecast your next quarter/fiscal year, then you become a liability. You could have a bad quarter and not get punished (too much) for it, assuming that your forecast was correct.
westpfelia 8y ago
well when you have a PE ratio of 33 anything but forward progress is bad.
woodpanel 8y ago
> It doesn't feel like the results justify the 20% drop. Neither does it for me. FB is still the only real GOOGL competitor in the ad market. It's revenue and market share is growing. All it has to do is extracting more money from its huge user base, which at least with instagram it hasn't really tried for now. Employing content reviewers won't come cheap, but that investment is going to be faced by all social media platforms and in turn will be sector neutral. Facing regulatory burdens with measures like this helps the big ones manifest their oligopol. While I can echo most HNers sentiment (I too decreased my FB usage before and after the CA scandal) I think we are not precisely the best socio-economic group to serve as indicator for what drives people or doesn't: Most people are happy to share on social media platforms (no matter how repugnant I feel about it) and there is no social media real estate like FB or IG around. Fundamentally it's still cheaper than GOOGL in terms of P/E and just costs half of what GOOGL costs for every $ of FCF.

everdev 8y ago

> Wehner also said Facebook still expects expenses to grow 50% to 60% from last year > “But as I’ve said on past calls, we’re investing so much in security that it will significantly impact our profitability,” Zuckerberg said. “We’re starting to see that this quarter.” That sounds like a big 1-year jump. From what I can tell, the big Facebook scandals (fake news, Cambridge Analytica) came from faults in company policies rather than security glitches. I wonder if labeling it "security" is a PR thing as their web ads all focus on FB taking active steps to make sure those types of scandals don't happen again.

Bucephalus355 8y ago
To be fair, security is an amazing amount of policy. I took and passed the CISSP, and that exam must be at least 30%, maybe 40% policy. Things like knowing how does the Commerce Department’s rule of Safe Harbor apply to US companies doing business in EU. Stuff like that. That being said, it made me way better at my job. No matter how many technical justifications I have for why we should implement X, the second I brought up a small to medium legal thing everyone would fix it immediately.
- paxy 8y ago
  But how do policy changes result in a 50% increase in total expenses? They can't be hiring that many lawyers.
  - xxorlak 8y ago
    Implementation of policies has a waterfall effect throughout the org. EG: Adding something as simple as a privilege expiration (generic example) and propagating it through the org and various teams itself will take time.
  - bobdole12345 8y ago
    They're hiring 2/3rd more employees to act as content moderators from the sounds of the guidance.

ebikelaw 8y ago

Well, the stock dropped a bit after the report, but then it fell off a cliff during the call. It must be the forecast and not the results that is really spooking people.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
geetfun 8y ago
The guidance is nice. It resets expectation, especially amongst the analyst community. Makes it easier for FB to beat expectations the next time around.
gnopgnip 8y ago
How are stock price drops reported when the market is closed?
- ebikelaw 8y ago
  The same way they are reported when it's open: approximately, with the cooperation of the various market makers.
- mortehu 8y ago
  The closing auction signifies the end of regular trading hours (where more rules are in effect) but not the end of all trading. US stocks now trade 24/5 on at least one market, and well beyond 4pm ET on many more.

XJOKOLAT 8y ago

Good.

yalph 8y ago

Its mostly because of the guidance, not the miss.

drewmol 8y ago

>"and at the same time, it was encouraging to see the vast majority of people affirm that though want us to use context, including from web sites this they visit, to make our ads more relevant and improve their overall product experience.” I assume the vast majority clicked 'Agree' or similar on prompts about updated policies, but it's funny to phrase it this way. Obviously if asked directly, the vast majority would't actually affirm that.

godgod 8y ago

Why people still use facebook is beyond me. It's a platform where you are the product. Your privacy is for sale.

Animats 8y ago

The market has expected this for years. Look at Facebook's declining P/E ratio.[1] 81 in 2005. 22 now. Successful established companies have P/E ratios in the 10-20 range. Facebook is coming in for a landing as an established company, ending its growth company phase. This is a normal part of the corporate life cycle. [1] https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/pe-ratio https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/pe-ratio

dawhizkid 8y ago
You cannot say a 20% drop AH is "expected" by investors. If this was truly "expected" then the slowing growth would've been long accounted for in the price.
- perl4ever 8y ago
  I think you* have unreasonable expectations for precision in valuation. 20% is not a large fluctuation in the context of the unlimited future of a company. Something truly unexpected would make an order of magnitude difference. *but you're not alone.
  - what_ever 8y ago
    How is 20% not a large fluctuation? That doesn't make sense. If you want absolute numbers it's $130 Billions. Almost worth 4 Twitters.
    - metamicah 8y ago
      That 20% drop brought its stock value back to where it was a year ago, which was an all-time high for it then. Investors that have held it for longer than a year can still sell it at a profit.
      - what_ever 8y ago
        But no one is talking about investors holding stocks for more than a year in this comment chain. That's tangential to this comment chain, sorry. And to your point, investors could have sold for over 25% of profit as well if they had sold it earlier today. So I still stand by saying that this is huge change. Besides, this thread is not about long term, just invest in index funds so I just fail to see the point.

bigtones 8y ago

Yhis was all after the bell as was the earnings announcement, and the quoted stock drop was in the after hours trading market, so it could be less tomorrow in the standard market.

ebikelaw 8y ago
It's funny to suggest that after hours trading means less. The people trading during the regular session were literally just gambling, whereas the people trading in the after are trading on new fundamental information. What I'd really like to know about today's regular session is why seven billion dollars worth of shares changed hands on the last tick.
- zeusk 8y ago
  > What I'd really like to know about today's regular session is why seven billion dollars worth of shares changed hands on the last tick. Not all trades are reported real-time; Dark pool executions are often bulk reported prior to end of day settlement.
jonknee 8y ago
What happened before they whiffed on earnings doesn't matter, new information came out and the market ran away from Facebook like it was contagious. 32,725,304 FB shares have traded after the bell, that is a "real market". The 10-day average daily volume is ~17.5m so this is hugely significant.

untog 8y ago

Interesting to note that this is currently #2 on HN, while a discussion about fake news/free speech on Facebook was immediately flagged off the home page as soon as it arrived: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17613810 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17613810 I'd be curious to hear from those who flagged that Facebook story and not this one: why is that one inappropriate for HN and this one fine?

jmspring 8y ago
"Verified users should be able to post what ever they want" quoting someone from FB was a headline I recall flying by on multiple news sites today.
ageek123 8y ago
Because the thread you mentioned is about politics. Political discussion may be allowed on HN, but most people don't like them, as they're completely non-productive and just get everyone angry at each other.
- untog 8y ago
  Seems silly to think that politics goes away if you just don't talk about it. Facebook recently had an entire ad campaign around reducing the toxicity on the platform - surely a discussion of that has a place when talking about earnings or lack thereof.
  - hueving 8y ago
    >Seems silly to think that politics goes away if you just don't talk about it They go away from this platform, which is what matters. There are a million other platforms for everyone to share their shitty political propaganda, let's at least try to keep this one clean.
    - untog 8y ago
      I don't think you know what the word "propaganda" means. It's interesting which people share this problem.

AzzieElbab 8y ago

Bots to the rescue?

ceohockey60 8y ago

The pessimistic guidance dovetails well with Zuckerberg's recent, wide-ranging interview with Kara Swisher[1]. FB has been the darling of tech and general media, until the last 2 years--turning a great brand to an increasingly toxic one. By Zuckerberg's own estimation, FB's "retooling" needs 3 years, and they are about 1 1/2 years in, so the guidance reflects that timeline. If they deliver on that timeline, a rough 2nd half of 2018 and all of 2019 is to be expected. [1] https://www.recode.net/2018/7/18/17575156/mark-zuckerberg-interview-facebook-recode-kara-swisher https://www.recode.net/2018/7/18/17575156/mark-zuckerberg-in...

bradenb 8y ago

I think the stock price is finally catching up to reality and public perception. I've noticed a huge resistance to using Facebook in recent years within my social sphere. Professionally, I'm one of the few that I know that still use the service; I think it's FOMO keeping me on, but I find it extremely difficult to add content to my profile and find myself mostly acting as a passive consumer of others' content.

mattbeckman 8y ago
Install Newsfeed eradicator and then remove the app from your phone. Brought me down to maybe check the site once every couple weeks for notifications.
rajataghi 8y ago
But the thing is that the same people resisting Facebook are spending more and more time on Instagram....which is owned by facebook.
- astronautjones 8y ago
  but ig is so much harder to advertise / convert on
  - robjan 8y ago
    Pretty much anyone who has a brand that targets millennials advertises on IG. I see dozens of Kickstarter products and re-targeting from e-commerce around the web.
mrep 8y ago
They have over a billion daily active users. That is more than the EU and the US COMBINED! Any personal opinions about a product are practically useless when your customer base is that freaking large and diverse. Edit: I avoid facebook like what seems like most other people here on hacker news but my point is that hacker news is in no way shape or form representative of the global population.

cs702 8y ago

User growth is slowing down to a crawl: * There are 4.16 billion Internet users worldwide.[a] * 26.3% of the world's population is under 14 years old, close to Facebook's minimum age of 13.[b] This means 73.7% of the world's population is at least 14 years old. * If we assume the population of Internet users has a similar age distribution as the world's population, that means there are around 4.16 * 73.7% = 3.07 billion Internet users who are at least 14 years old. This is a rough estimate of the maximum possible number of people who can have an account with Facebook today, i.e., the size of the company's addressable market (in users, not dollars). * The true size of Facebook's addressable market could be higher (for example, if the age distribution of Internet users is different)... but it could also be significantly lower (for example, if a substantial number of Internet users cannot or will not join Facebook due to religious, cultural, or governmental restrictions, or due to the availability of established regional alternatives). * Facebook just reported monthly active users of 2.23 billion, up only 11% from 2.01 billion a year ago.[c] This isn't exactly stellar user growth. The company now has around 73% penetration of every person in the planet who can join Facebook today. Again, this is a rough estimate. * The company's CFO disclosed in today's quarterly earnings call that the company expects a "deceleration" in growth.[d] [a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet... [b] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_... [c] https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Facebook-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Results/default.aspx https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/... [d] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/facebook-warns-investors-of-weakening-revenue-in-second-half-of-2018.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/facebook-warns-investors-of-... -- EDITS: I updated the global Internet usage figures based on dooglius's comment below (the Wikipedia page is outdated). I also expanded significantly on my original post to make my facts and reasoning as clear as possible to others here.

dooglius 8y ago
The first citation on that Wikipedia page [0] has been updated to an estimate of 4.16 billion internet users as of Dec 31, 2017. [0] https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm

patrickg_zill 8y ago

As well, Facebook announced that they were going to set up a new incubator in China. Then today or yesterday their permission to do so was yanked by Chinese authorities. EDIT: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-25/just-hours-after-approval-china-kills-new-facebook-venture https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-25/just-hours-after-a... summary of stories from NYT, Reuters, etc. on this matter

hemantv 8y ago
I don't like the Chinese government at all. But at least there is a powerful force against stopping this company from infecting all of the humanity. I just wish India would take a similar stand and then game over for Facebook.

hemantv 8y ago

This company is the drug dealer of Silicon Valley. They have consciously destroyed a generation attention span using psychological tricks. Hoping they start losing some of the good talent + the US implement something similar to GDPR.

Tloewald 8y ago
You should look into the career of B.J. Fogg. https://www.bjfogg.com/ https://www.bjfogg.com/ He literally teaches his students how to make psychologically addictive products and is proud of it (and rich). His disciples are the priests of "engagement".
- giantsloth 8y ago
  Reading his website makes him seem less like a master of anything serious and more a master at self aggrandizing douche baggery. B=MAP reads much like any self helpy gimmick, something so obvious and so useless you somehow feel smart for having had your obvious thoughts on a topic reworded and handed back to you in corny new configuration you can share with your vapid fake friend group.
  - SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
    > Reading his website makes him seem less like a master of anything serious and more a master at self aggrandizing douche baggery. Sounds like 90% of the "business" books I've read
mancerayder 8y ago
But surely they're not the only villains. It began with pop-up ads in the old days, evolving to that interstitial nightmare. Mobile notifications of almost anything, combined with a snaring in of people's attention using human weaknesses: need for attention and validation, frailty with regards to gossip, need to find a way to procrastinate during difficult times (work) and much more that I'm missing. It's time for some serious scholarship in the psychological arena in this direction.

nadim 8y ago

20p discount on FB today

mhh__ 8y ago

Time to buy discount facebook stock?

le-mark 8y ago
I don't have the sense this is a bottom by any means. Certainly there will be a bounce but I expect to see long term decline (imo).

stevehawk 8y ago

Completely anecdotal but I enjoy hating on facebook - I created an account so I could create ads for my new business.. I have no idea what's going on but the only page it ever serves me is "sorry something went wrong." so clearly they're missing out on my $5/day ad budget.

SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
Their ad platform doesn't play nicely with ad blockers. Maybe that's the cause of your issues?
- SamUK96 8y ago
  Now that...would be ironic.
- stevehawk 8y ago
  The ad creation tool is working fine. It's the "Page" I created. Can't view it, modify it, publish it, etc, i just get the error page. And because of that I can't launch an ad campaign.

chrischen 8y ago

If only facebook helped me achieve my goals rather than trying to manipulate me to give them attention with the lowest hanging fruit.

mtgx 8y ago

When Facebook posted good returns and stock didn't drop right after Cambridge Analytica many were gloating about how that is "proof" that the privacy scandal didn't affect Facebook and that no privacy scandal will ever affect Facebook. But they were simply not looking closely enough. And as I said back then, you need to give this sort of things time to see the real effects, like at least until the end of the year. Because I believe the worst is still ahead of Facebook. Facebook is now on a downwards path, and it's irreversible. Facebook is now officially Blackberry. And just like with Blackberry before, many dismissed the fundamental issues of the company while blindly following the "record quarters" Blackberry kept having until 2009. If they had just looked closely enough, they would've seen that BB's core North American market was on a steep decline path and it was also obvious that its phones were nowhere near as good as iPhones or Android phones. Just look at what's happening to Facebook engagement. Ignore Facebook's sugarcoating. Look how the people around you are using Facebook and what they say about it.

aylmao 8y ago
> When Facebook posted good returns and stock didn't drop right after Cambridge Analytica many were gloating about how that is "proof" that the privacy scandal didn't affect Facebook and that no privacy scandal will ever affect Facebook. > But they were simply not looking closely enough. And as I said back then, you need to give this sort of things time to see the real effects, like at least until the end of the year. I agree. > Because I believe the worst is still ahead of Facebook. Facebook is now on a downwards path, and it's irreversible. I don't think I agree. Facebook still has many opportunities for user and revenue growth in Instagram and WhatsApp. As far as being irreversible, Microsoft was in a very dire position too and now it's having record-breaking quarters. It'll largely depend on leadership and direction. > Facebook is now officially Blackberry. And just like with Blackberry before, many dismissed the fundamental issues of the company while blindly following the "record quarters" Blackberry kept having until 2009. If they had just looked closely enough, they would've seen that BB's core North American market was on a steep decline path and it was also obvious that its phones were nowhere near as good as iPhones or Android phones. One bad quarter doesn't make a company "officially Blackberry". IIRC, Blackberry didn't release it first touch-screen phone until 2013 (5 years after the iPhone) and it's first Android phone until 2015 (8 years after the iPhone). It was their stubbornness quarter after quarter, year after year that sank them-- they weren't dead the minute the iPhone was released just like Samsung wasn't. They should've just played smart and embraced Android/touchscreens from the get-go. Will Facebook remain stubborn or will it gain trust back? I don't know. Calling it dead already is a huge oversimplification though. > Just look at what's happening to Facebook engagement. Ignore Facebook's sugarcoating. Look how the people around you are using Facebook and what they say about it. The people around me are not an accurate sample of all Facebook users around the world. In my case, I see a lot of people using Facebook for Events and Marketplace. I see everyone on Instagram. The real data is in the numbers. Facebook's website falling behind Reddit is telling, but Instagram and WhatsApp surpassing Snapchat's stories also is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

alifpunk 8y ago

Time to buy discount facebook stock?

pbreit 8y ago

Since GOOG had good earnings, safe to say this isn't reflective of broader market/economy?

noncoml 8y ago

> Wehner said a combination of currency headwinds, new privacy controls, and new experiences like Stories will contribute to the deceleration I remember the day Chambers Saif Cisco hit an air pocket. Since then it has only been layoffs, cuts and austerity for Cisco. Never really recovered. Is it the same day for FB? > Cisco on Wednesday reported healthy profit and sales gains for its fiscal first quarter, in line with Wall Street expectations. But a host of challenges -- including losses in public sector accounts and in specific product areas like set-top boxes -- coupled with a less-than-invigorating sales forecast for the current quarter, were enough to send Cisco's shares tumbling. > Cisco CEO John Chambers, on Cisco's Q1 conference call, described the challenges as hitting an "air pocket," and was bullish on many of the areas in which Cisco excelled. But he set a subdued tone for the call, especially with the forecast that second quarter revenues would increase only about 3 to 5 percent, and a forecast that revenue growth for fiscal 2011 overall would be 9 to 12 percent, well below both the 13 percent for Q2 and the 13.1 percent for FY11 predicted by analysts. > Specifically, said Chambers, orders came in over $500 million below Cisco's initial Q1 sales forecast.

trhway 8y ago

that explains recent what looks like layoffs at FB. I was surprised to learn that several people in my extended network have been very recently and unexpectedly kicked out from FB.

ardy42 8y ago

Facebook can't be doing well: they're running ads on the New York Times app, trying to convince me to join. And these aren't flattering ads either: they emphasize that I'd be joining "2 billion users" and that "it's free to sign up." They're bargain basement and have a desperate vibe.

anonytrary 8y ago
I'm a young millennial and I'm sure that I'm suffering from a bias here* -- but I'm actually surprised they would need to take out ads in the NYT, given what their product is. I just find it so hard to believe that a significant number of people in the US haven't heard of Facebook or haven't any close friends who use Facebook. If the number wasn't significant, then I don't know why they would need to take out ads. Unless you've been living under a rock, if you're my age, then you have had more than enough time to figure out whether Facebook is your cup of tea. *I am probably underestimating how many older folks are completely out-of-the-loop with Facebook.
- aggie 8y ago
  Many universally-recognized brands still advertise, because advertising isn't just about mere awareness of a product. It brings the product to mind and can continue to shape perception. The returns on advertising certainly diminish as you saturate awareness, but some level of maintenance is still worth doing.
- orbifold 8y ago
  They ran a full page ad this week in the FAZ the German equivalent of the NYT basically apologizing and promising to follow a new set of values.
  - anonytrary 8y ago
    This week!? I thought they did that a few weeks ago because of Cambridge Analytica? What did they do this time?
- mcbits 8y ago

jhanschoo 8y ago

In my opinion, among all the tech behemoths, it is Amazon that has the best long-term (stock) prospects. Whereas most tech companies build their businesses on ephemeral software-based services, Amazon possesses logistics and infrastructure that are among the best in the world.

lawrenceyan 8y ago
JD.com has far better logistics and infrastructure. They also don't send you fake products when you order online as their guarantees seem to actually mean something unlike Amazon.
- StudentStuff 8y ago
  Seriously, a guy I know that works over at Amazon was horrified at the trash that Amazon Fresh delivered to his house both times he tried it. Rusty, leaking canned goods and a mix of average to damaged produce does not make one want to be a repeat customer, even if you want to support your own company. JD.com with their heavily automated warehouses seems like they've eliminated a major cost center, it'll be curious to see if its just nearly fully automated to the press, or actually significantly better than Amazon/Ingram Micro & the other major human based warehouse wholesalers out there.

yotamoron 8y ago

Faacebook is hugely overvalued. Its actual value for its users is far less then perceived. You can't fool all the people all the time, and the day will come that people will realize it. I'm all for social networks (and making good profit from operating them), they have a key role in democratizing the global society, its just that facebook is abusing our basic psychological needs to make money.

qubex 8y ago
Since the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke I’ve disabled notifications on my phone and find myself pressing it perhaps 30 minutes a week rather than what was probably almost an hour a day. Even giving it half an hour of my time seems like a bit of a bad habit I should cut out. I never relied on it for news, ignored the ads, and generally really tried to use it exclusively to maintain the potential for contact with the diaspora of worldwide friends and acquaintances and their sometimes-shifting contact details.
- SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
  I deleted the app and just use the mobile website when I want to occasionally check what friends and family are up to. Much less of a distraction and battery life is much improved. I also started using Messenger Lite now instead of the full-blown Messenger. That said, it seems very rare my friends or family actually post anything these days. Mostly I use it for a handful of specialist groups which could just as easily be replaced with forums.
  - yotamoron 8y ago
    I completely deleted my FB account well over 3 years ago, and never looked back. After the initial panic subsided, life become much better.
samstave 8y ago
What I would really like to know, is the correlation between the FB IPO and the rental prices around the valley going up at the time. Just prior to the FB IPO, I lived about two blocks from the then CIO or CTO of FB (cant recall his name - this was just as Asana was getting a lot of buzz as well) -- and I was looking for a new apartment in Noe Valley. I recall that a place that I saw going for $3,000 per month took an immediate jump to $7,000 per month days after the IPO and they wanted a $10,000 security deposit... Other rents went up as well. My overall point being, that it sucks, but is interesting, to see how tech company IPOs impact overall COL - but when comments such as "FB is hugely overvalued" are made, and instances where FBs value drops - the damage to real COL has an impact radius thats already happened and far more reaching than simply to those who benefit/suffer from their personal stock holdings' value... Its the reality of the world/market - but lets imagine FB ceasing to exist magically... COL/rents will not adjust accordingly. So, while I don't personally care about FB's value - I am interested in how much the entirety of COL is affected by any tech success/failure throughout silicon valley... How are these types of factors evaluated by economists?

alismayilov 8y ago

Facebook is very valuable in countries where press freedom is not good (if facebook is not blocked yet). My country (Azerbaijan) is one of the worst countries in terms of press freedom. The only “free press” we have is a facebook. There are many goverment’s trolls, but everybody understands when trolls write something (trolls get average salary). On the other hand, goverment follows oppositions’ discussions on facebook and responds accordingly. That is the only platform we have now goverment and oppositions speak with each other.

scandox 8y ago
Well at least your trolls are paid. A lot of our trolls seem to be volunteers.
- spdionis 8y ago
  Probably the volunteer ones are the most realistic and dangerous.
  - Cthulhu_ 8y ago
    Yup, I'm fairly sure the online Trump hype train was 10% trolls and 90% people tagging along for the ride. Then again it died reeeally fast right after the election, so now I'm not sure anymore.
    - thetrumanshow 8y ago
      Or more abstractly: influencers and followers. What makes them trolls, exactly? Also, no surprise things die down after an election, since it’s not the hot topic anymore.
- r00fus 8y ago
  How certain are you that they're actually volunteers? Astroturf seems to be a lot more lifelike these days.
  - 8y ago

2sk21 8y ago

One thing I have been wondering - how will they monetize WhatsApp?

jquast 8y ago
Haven't they already monetized on WhatsApp? They've already been able to gather a massive amount of social graph data and personal details, phone number, location information. If they made any amount of value on WhatsApp data, the users are never informed. I think the only way to really know is to join as an employee and find out what they do/did with it. The only thing we are aware of is advertising when we see it, everything else is nebulous.
- 2sk21 8y ago
  Agreed - WhatsApp data is getting added to their social graph for sure. However, they have not yet made any attempt so far to, say, inject ads into chats or on the app itself. Despite their statement of end-to-end security, they still control the end points, so this kind of ad injection could be compatible.
tomaskafka 8y ago
They do. It's a data gathering platform for better ad targetting of people who don't know Whatsapp belongs to FB (= everyone minus few nerds)

JumpCrisscross 8y ago

Deletion is too extreme for most people. More reasonable: escalating partial dis-engagement. Here's what my friends and I did, sequentially, over the years: 1. Turn off notifications for the Facebook app on your phone; 2. Turn off notifications for the Facebook Messenger, Instagram, et cetera apps on your phone; 3. Delete the Facebook app from your phone; 4. Delete the Facebook Messenger, Instagram, et cetera apps from your phone; and finally 5. Log out of Facebook on your desktop. It took me 2 years to go through from step 1 to step 5. It has made me happier and more productive. I still have a Facebook account. But the friction of grabbing my laptop and logging in forces me to consider "is this what I want to do? Or am I thoughtlessly reaching for the crack pipe?"

bariswheel 8y ago
Turning off notifications for messenger ("We noticed notifications are off, would you like to turn it on? Yes/No), I kid you not, took at least 30 to 40 times as of a few months ago for it to stop bugging me to turn it back on. Few months before that, 25 times at least. Who knows what that number is now. That kind of engagement should be flat out illegal or regulated.
- froindt 8y ago
  It has the same persistence if you haven't posted in awhile. I haven't posted a status in over a year, and the first few months I got countless notifications along the lines of "OMG YOU HAVEN'T POSTED IN ___ WEEKS! GET STARTED AGAIN". Also, there's no reason for a "starter message" and prompt when I add a friend.
  - thinkingemote 8y ago
    I'm sure once you do post something after a prolonged absence that they somehow highlight your post to everyone much more than it would normally appear. I once went through a long tedious process of manually deleting posts and photos and after a while I got a very increased interaction on older images, not newer. Interaction from people who wouldn't normally comment, either.

apexalpha 8y ago

Delete the apps. Use website for facebook and Messenger Lite if you must. These apps are the new sigarettes.

edw519 8y ago

2007 High school acquaintance: Join us on facebook! Me: What for? So you can treat me like shit like you did in high school? 2008 Cousin: Join us on facebook, so you can stay in touch. Me: Why don't you just tell me what's happening like you always have? Then we can shoot the shit and laugh and talk and gossip, just us two, like we always have? 2009 Neighbor: Why don't you join our community group on facebook so you can see what's going on? Me: I'll just pay my dues and spend my time on what's really important to me. 2010 Work associate: Why don't you work at facebook? Everywhere else is lame. Me: Because lots of other places are doing cool stuff that really matters. 2011 Friend: I can't believe you're still not on facebook. Everyone is! Me: Your 2 sentences contradict each other. 2012 Me: Why didn't you invite me to your wedding? Fraternity brother: Because you're not on facebook. Me: Lame. And classless. 2013 Sister-in-law: Your business cannot succeed unless it has a presence on facebook. Me: Really? I just had my best year ever. 2014 Local business: See what we're up to on facebook. Me: I just go somewhere with their own website. 2015 Me: Why didn't you answer my emails? Friend: Why didn't you just message me? Me: What's that? 2016 Work friend: How do you manage to get so damn much work done? Me: Because I'm not spending hours every day on facebook on my phone. I'm too busy building stuff. 2017 Business guru: A following on facebook is not nearly as effective as a good email list. There's too much noise for the signal. Me: You don't say? 2018 Almost everyone: What have we done?!? facebook is ruining everything! Our privacy is gone! How do we get off? Me: I get off every day. The old fashioned way.

deepaksurti 8y ago
Now when some one asks me why I am not on FB, I will just redirect to this :-). Thanks and I thank myself for having not wasted even a second on any Social NW site, not that I look down on others who do. To each his own, for me staying away helped and I profited!
- fosco 8y ago
  HN is a social networking site, it is the only one I use. but I am spending time reading these comments... and probably do not want tknow the total time per week I spend on this site, I might cry because my excuse of not having time to exercise could be wrong.

adarsh_thampy 8y ago

I deleted my Facebook account more than 2 years ago. Installed Instagram to test what the fuss was about. But uninstalled it in a day. The thing that's still Facebook and major part of my life is WhatsApp. Chit chats, group discussions, and calls with family back home all happen through WhatsApp. Couldn't transition to other apps because most people in my family and friends circle don't really care about privacy or data security. They prefer convenience. Without them switching, it's going to be hard for me to switch.

sasper 8y ago
I've been happy as a clam to delete my Facebook and Instagram accounts over the last couple of years, and, like you, WhatsApp is a necessity. I spend 10+ months a year abroad, and WhatsApp has taken over as the default mode of communication. You don't ask for someone's phone number any more, you ask for their WhatsApp. I wonder what it will take for WhatsApp to be dethroned? Perhaps a massive data leak, or proof that their e2e encryption has been knowingly compromised to gather data for Facebook advertising.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
tapoxi 8y ago
> Couldn't transition to other apps because most people in my family and friends circle don't really care about privacy or data security. They prefer convenience. What's wrong with phone calls and SMS? Granted they're not more secure, but at least they're not Facebook. I don't know any WhatsApp users, so I'm unaware of the advantage.
- SamuelAdams 8y ago
  My social circles use it because it provides a consistent experience. Some have androids, and some have iPhones. When you have an all iPhone group chat, things work rather well. Liking different texts, animations, etc work well. But when you add a non-iPhone to the mix, the texts are sent sms-style, so you get messages that say "Sam liked X's comment!". It's easier for everyone to use WhatsApp, because that platform provides a consistent experience. Also I can search messages in WhatsApp, I can't find this in iMessage.

tchaffee 8y ago

I haven't seen anyone mention that the drop did not carry over into the regular daytime trading. Am I missing something or is this a non-story by now? I was actually looking forward to buying FB at a 20% discount, but it just did not happen at all during regular trading hours.

tchaffee 8y ago
I was totally wrong. Not sure what happened. Maybe I was looking at charts before the market opened?

schnevets 8y ago

I'm seeing a lot of "I deleted and I don't even miss it" comments. I haven't deleted my account just yet, but I only check the news feed once a week. Taking this anecdotal evidence into account, I wonder if it's just Facebook's core audience growing out of social media. Sure, Zuckerberg has a bazillion users, but his site started by selectively inviting college students in the early 00's. Those early adopters are now all in their 30s and have better things to do than gossip and post vanity shots all day. Maybe the older audience who joined the site later are losing interest because that core was less active. And then there's the younger generation who actively avoid Facebook and stay connected through a massive spread of other apps/games/sites that are not outright social media outlets. Without a major pivot, this could be big trouble for FB.

shahramjds 8y ago

من در حدود 2 سال پیش به دنبال دریافت نرم افزاری مجبور شدم فیس بوک را نصب کنم تا از طریق ان به برنامه ای که دنبالش بودم دسترسی پیدا کنم.و چون حرفه ای نبودم نتوانستم برنامه دوربین از منبع باز را دریافت کنم.ولی متوجه چیز مهمی در مورد فیس بوک شدم و این بود که این برنامه خیلی فراتر و وسیع تر از این است که فقط یک نرم افزار در ان پیدا کنم و نصب کنم.و به این ترتیب روز به روز علاقمند تر شدم به این برنامه.خیلی از دوستان و همکارانی که سالها از انها بی خبر بودم را پیدا کردم.و از انجاییکه ادم کنجکاوی هستم به دنبال کشف ویژگی های بیشتر در این برنامه هستم و ارزوی من این است که جهانی بدون نزاع و جنگ و درگیری داشته باشیم که همه با هم دوست هستند.و اینکه هیچ بی سوادی در دنیا نباشد.

let_var 8y ago

I deleted Facebook before deleting Facebook was cool. I'm sure there are few good benefits but drawbacks and ads dwarf them all. One more thing - the last time when I met my school buddies back in my hometown, we had more things to share, discuss and appreciate. It really felt good and real. Previously this experience was diluted by constant barrage of FB feed, there was nothing new to share or discuss.

ElijahLynn 8y ago

I have kept my account for the reason that I meet people in real life and that is very valuable to me. I try not to use it for much else, but event discovery and human connections are important enough for me to keep the account.

timtas 8y ago

> The social-media behemoth’s stock lost roughly one-fifth of its value. That's one way to describe it. Another way is, Facebook's stock fell to where it was two months ago, which is 70% over what it was at the start of 2017. I'm not saying that a large one-day drop is insignificant or isn't news. But to paint this as the bottom falling out is unwarranted.