3 ms·

Well yeah, but just because Trump won doesn’t mean they were wrong. According to their prediction, Trump wins in one in every fifty times. There might be plent

Well yeah, but just because Trump won doesn’t mean they were wrong. According to their prediction, Trump wins in one in every fifty times. There might be plenty of reasons to believe their analysis was flawed, but by itself the fact the Trump won doesn’t actually imply that.

jibal 8y ago
Actually, according to their prediction, Trump wins 3 in every 20 times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential...
- andrewingram 8y ago
  Good to know, but my comment was on the assumption that the parent comment provided the correct percentage.
  - jibal 8y ago
    Well duh. But the point is that that assumption was both erroneous and unwarranted.
    - andrewingram 8y ago
      But the thrust of my message was about the misunderstanding of statistics, so the actual numbers (correct or otherwise) are irrelevant to the point I was making. Replace the numbers in my comment with the correct ones and the meaning remains the same.
      - jibal 8y ago
        Sigh. I know the thrust of your statement; that's why I said "duh". But I made a different point. See, you're not the only person on the planet with points to make. And again: your assumption was unwarranted. That's a mistake on your part, but it seems that you have no interest in whether you make mistakes.
        andrewingram 8y ago
        Given that you've started casting aspersions on my character, at this point it's hard to imagine that you're not acting in bad faith. But who knows, maybe it is possible to salvage this. I don't understand what was so objectionable about my assumption. Sure, I could have fact-checked the numbers on the comment I was replying to, but they were irrelevant to my point, and it's not exactly a news article where such rigour would matter. I don't really feel a stronger defence is necessary. I also acknowledged your correction of the statistic. You say you're making a point, but what actually is it? The most meaningful moments of my life have been when i've realised i've been wrong about something, so seriously, if I've made a big mistake I genuinely want to know what it is. But ultimately, for me to recognise when I'm wrong, the mistake needs to be highlighted.
        jibal 8y ago
        Good grief. This site needs a block feature. Over and out.

jibal 8y ago

Actually, according to their prediction, Trump wins 3 in every 20 times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential...

andrewingram 8y ago
Good to know, but my comment was on the assumption that the parent comment provided the correct percentage.
- jibal 8y ago
  Well duh. But the point is that that assumption was both erroneous and unwarranted.
  - andrewingram 8y ago
    But the thrust of my message was about the misunderstanding of statistics, so the actual numbers (correct or otherwise) are irrelevant to the point I was making. Replace the numbers in my comment with the correct ones and the meaning remains the same.
    - jibal 8y ago
      Sigh. I know the thrust of your statement; that's why I said "duh". But I made a different point. See, you're not the only person on the planet with points to make. And again: your assumption was unwarranted. That's a mistake on your part, but it seems that you have no interest in whether you make mistakes.
      - andrewingram 8y ago
        Given that you've started casting aspersions on my character, at this point it's hard to imagine that you're not acting in bad faith. But who knows, maybe it is possible to salvage this. I don't understand what was so objectionable about my assumption. Sure, I could have fact-checked the numbers on the comment I was replying to, but they were irrelevant to my point, and it's not exactly a news article where such rigour would matter. I don't really feel a stronger defence is necessary. I also acknowledged your correction of the statistic. You say you're making a point, but what actually is it? The most meaningful moments of my life have been when i've realised i've been wrong about something, so seriously, if I've made a big mistake I genuinely want to know what it is. But ultimately, for me to recognise when I'm wrong, the mistake needs to be highlighted.
        jibal 8y ago
        Good grief. This site needs a block feature. Over and out.