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Augur protocol leads to Ethereum-based ‘assassination market’

VectorLock 8y ago
Its not Jim Bell's Assassination Politics but we're getting there.
1996 8y ago
I fail to see the problem of having working markets. If anything, it is helpful for the target: they can know when to invest money to protect themselves, and collect on the failing prediction.
- ur-whale 8y ago
  Not to mention the fact that collecting on an assassination "bet" is likely a prosecutable offense in most places.
  - aristocles 8y ago
    Under what law is speculative participation in predictive markets a crime if it results in violence?
- cimmanom 8y ago
  Because it creates incentives to assassination that might not otherwise exist? Oh, sorry, I forgot. Markets solve all problems, right?
- lovich 8y ago
  Do you legitimately believe there is no issue with allowing people to pay assassin's because it's done in the framework of a market?
  - 1996 8y ago
    No, I see the exact opposite happening: it removes the incentive.
    - lovich 8y ago
      What incentive is removed, you can get paid easily for killing someone? Im legitimately curious about your viewpoint if you view this as a good thing
bumholio 8y ago
This is not an assassination market, it's a prediction market, but it can well work as an assassination market. If an universally reviled person has an 1:2 bet against him, this would not incentivize killers to take the huge risks of an assassination only to double their money. Instead, they would be incentivized to kill other persons for whom players are betting they will live. On the other hand, players know that, so they will never bet against an assassination, except in the case they really do want to lose, thus transferring their loses as payment to the assassin.
dajohnson89 8y ago
I heard that there's a feature which allows you to flag a prediction on Augur as "unethical"?
flipp3r 8y ago
When you have to put "assassination market" in quotes because you know that's not what it is. By pure coincidence the journalist finds a "new market" where a whole _single person_ is betting on whether DJT will survive 2018. Truely groundbreaking, shocking. Besides being absolutely nothing new; The realer versions of this have existed on the deep web for over 5 years where people could bet with BTC (assmkedzgorodn7o).
- dclowd9901 8y ago
  So because that’s not strictly what it’s called, it can’t be used for that. You can’t be that naive.
  - brian_cloutier 8y ago
    What your parent is trying to say is that this is not yet a real problem. It is a "market" of one person. Maybe Augur could potentially be used this way. It is not currently being used this way. This article is trying very hard to rile you up about these dangerous assassination markets but is pretty dishonest about the fact that it's talking about a possibility, not a reality. It's also not like Augur has suddenly made assassination markets possible, they already exist and the world has failed to come to an end because of it.
KasianFranks 8y ago
More proof that crypto is bad
GW150914 8y ago
Given that tontines are illegal in the US and much of the world, this seems risky even if you’re able to ignore any moral dimension.
cryptobeanbaby 8y ago
I'll assume this is flagged because it's not favorable to broadcast this feature to the public, and "investors" aka HODLers here at Hackernews would want to hide this event.
dmurray 8y ago
If you're not just trying to cause outrage, you use more neutral language like "die" instead of "be killed" in your definition of the market. And really, for a functioning market you need a number of bettors who aren't actively involved in assassinating or preventing assassinations.

Its not Jim Bell's Assassination Politics but we're getting there.

1996 8y ago

I fail to see the problem of having working markets. If anything, it is helpful for the target: they can know when to invest money to protect themselves, and collect on the failing prediction.

ur-whale 8y ago
Not to mention the fact that collecting on an assassination "bet" is likely a prosecutable offense in most places.
- aristocles 8y ago
  Under what law is speculative participation in predictive markets a crime if it results in violence?
cimmanom 8y ago
Because it creates incentives to assassination that might not otherwise exist? Oh, sorry, I forgot. Markets solve all problems, right?
lovich 8y ago
Do you legitimately believe there is no issue with allowing people to pay assassin's because it's done in the framework of a market?
- 1996 8y ago
  No, I see the exact opposite happening: it removes the incentive.
  - lovich 8y ago
    What incentive is removed, you can get paid easily for killing someone? Im legitimately curious about your viewpoint if you view this as a good thing

bumholio 8y ago

This is not an assassination market, it's a prediction market, but it can well work as an assassination market. If an universally reviled person has an 1:2 bet against him, this would not incentivize killers to take the huge risks of an assassination only to double their money. Instead, they would be incentivized to kill other persons for whom players are betting they will live. On the other hand, players know that, so they will never bet against an assassination, except in the case they really do want to lose, thus transferring their loses as payment to the assassin.

dajohnson89 8y ago

I heard that there's a feature which allows you to flag a prediction on Augur as "unethical"?

flipp3r 8y ago

When you have to put "assassination market" in quotes because you know that's not what it is. By pure coincidence the journalist finds a "new market" where a whole _single person_ is betting on whether DJT will survive 2018. Truely groundbreaking, shocking. Besides being absolutely nothing new; The realer versions of this have existed on the deep web for over 5 years where people could bet with BTC (assmkedzgorodn7o).

dclowd9901 8y ago
So because that’s not strictly what it’s called, it can’t be used for that. You can’t be that naive.
- brian_cloutier 8y ago
  What your parent is trying to say is that this is not yet a real problem. It is a "market" of one person. Maybe Augur could potentially be used this way. It is not currently being used this way. This article is trying very hard to rile you up about these dangerous assassination markets but is pretty dishonest about the fact that it's talking about a possibility, not a reality. It's also not like Augur has suddenly made assassination markets possible, they already exist and the world has failed to come to an end because of it.

KasianFranks 8y ago

More proof that crypto is bad

GW150914 8y ago

Given that tontines are illegal in the US and much of the world, this seems risky even if you’re able to ignore any moral dimension.

cryptobeanbaby 8y ago

I'll assume this is flagged because it's not favorable to broadcast this feature to the public, and "investors" aka HODLers here at Hackernews would want to hide this event.

dmurray 8y ago

If you're not just trying to cause outrage, you use more neutral language like "die" instead of "be killed" in your definition of the market. And really, for a functioning market you need a number of bettors who aren't actively involved in assassinating or preventing assassinations.