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You need to consider rates for things. "Multiple reports" means absolutely nothing when you're talking about something that's been running for decades for one c

You need to consider rates for things. "Multiple reports" means absolutely nothing when you're talking about something that's been running for decades for one can only imagine how many total millions of hours or whatever other metric you want to use. For instance you can find that thousands of people have been killed because of seat belts or air bags. But these things don't really matter because the rate of incidence is extremely low. Perhaps also a bad example on my part as they also save lives when they work, but you can pick practically anything -- given a large enough sample, you'll find people manage to die to just about everything. My favorite is Isadora Duncan - a celebrity, no less! So the key question is what is the incident rate here? Given the most condemning data we have is "multiple reports" over 2 decades, that sounds like a pretty good baseline for 'extremely safe.' ---- Also, can you please provide evidence of even just a single duck boat with windows? I just tried pretty hard to find even a single one, and failed. But yeah, velcro or drop sheets are of course part of the system. And again those are designed to be able to be rapidly removed.

learc83 8y ago
>Given the most condemning data we have is "multiple reports" over 2 decades, that sounds like a pretty good baseline for 'extremely safe.' The most condemning data we as armchair sleuths have is that the NTSB who did have all the data on incident rates opened an investigation in 1999. They concluded that the boats weren't safe. They recommended that they be retrofitted with reserve buoyancy, that electric bill pumps be installed (so that bilge pumps keep working when the engine is swamped), and that the canopies be removed or replaced with coast guard approved canopies that allow for easy escape. >Also, can you please provide evidence of even just a single duck boat with windows? I just tried pretty hard to find even a single one, and failed. But yeah, velcro or drop sheets are of course part of the system. And again those are designed to be able to be rapidly removed. https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2018/07/22/PSPR/90431ecf-5863-4ec0-be8c-89391bd4fdb9-tDuck_memorial00055.jpg?crop=4388,3269,x251,y0&width=520&height=390&fit=bounds https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2018/07/22/PSPR/90431ecf-... Those were on the Missouri boat that sank. They can be electronically raised and lowered by the captain [1]. They don't look like they are easy to remove without the captain raising them. From watching video taken inside, they don't appear to be held on by something easy to remove like velcro. According to eye witness reports they weren't able to easily escape through the windows. "Keller said her daughter made it clear that the canopy was on and the windows were sealed." "They were all closed," Keller said her daughter told her. "The windows were closed and the top was on." "It was so hard to get out of the boat, Mom. It was so hard to get out of the boat."[2] You also have designs like this: https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2018_29/2504521/180720-miss-majestic-accident-al-1153_13391f61ec5f548810895557acd3ddb2.fit-760w.jpg https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2018_29/2504521/18072... Where the window openings are too narrow to allow for quick escape. Especially considering how low in the water they ride and how quickly they sink. 1. https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article215235950.html https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article215235950.html 2. https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article215257665.html https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article215257...
- TangoTrotFox 8y ago
  I increasingly feel like I'm playing Where's Waldo when it comes to digging out facts in between appeals to emotion in media articles. Your articles confirm that the "windows" are plastic curtains which one individual described as being difficult for children or elderly to open. The canopy was also detachable, and was detached, during the incident. And before diverging too much, the point I was getting at here is that these incidents seem to be extremely rare relative to the usage of these vehicles. And (at risk of hijacking my own point, again) in this case the major problem was not the boat itself, but a captain bringing his passengers out into a very severe storm - with possible wind speeds in excess of 60 mph in the exact lake they were going into. And the warning was released before they even entered the water. That's enough to wreck any small water vehicle. And the captain also did not tell the passengers to put on their life vests even when telling them this was the worst storm he'd ever seen. He probably did not want to start a panic but, at least in hindsight, that was another bad judgement call on his part. It'll be up to the courts to decide if that judgement entered into the realm of negligence.
  - learc83 8y ago
    >Described as being difficult for children or elderly to open. That part was a paraphrase of what he said. You ignored the next part which was a direct quote: the windows would "prevent you from even trying to get out. You need to swim toward the back of the boat. But there being 30-plus people in there, I could just ... just all the chaos happening in there I think it would be difficult to calmly line up and go out the back." He's not talking about just children and elderly when he mentions people calmly lining up and going out the back. Look at the plastic sheeting. They are raised and lowered electronically and the sheets take up an entire side of the boat. Nothing about them looks well designed to allow quick escape in an emergency. >These incidents seem to be extremely rare relative to the usage of these vehicles. You don't know that at all. You have no idea how often they are are used or how many of them are operating. You don't have the information say whether they are more or less dangerous than other tour boats. You know who does have this information, the NTSB. Their conclusion is that they are unsafe and should be heavily modified. >And the captain also did not tell the passengers to put on their life vests The coast guard doesn't recommend wearing life vest while under a canopy because if the boat goes down the vest can pin you under the canopy. In the 1999 sinking they found 4 people with life vests stuck under the canopy. > The canopy was also detachable, and was detached, This article and pictures I've seen of the recovered boat indicates that it wasn't actually detached, "The boat appeared largely intact with holes in its canvas top.." It looks like it either ripped or a few flaps were opened in it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coast-guard-preparing-to-raise-duck-boat-in-fatal-missouri-accident-1532348915 https://www.wsj.com/articles/coast-guard-preparing-to-raise-... A private inspector who inspected the boats for the company that owns them last year even warned the company about how dangerous they were. He inspected 20 of them and thought they were too dangerous. He said: "The biggest problem with a duck when it sinks is that canopy, Paul said. “That canopy becomes what I’ll call a people catcher, and people can’t get out from under that canopy."

learc83 8y ago

>Given the most condemning data we have is "multiple reports" over 2 decades, that sounds like a pretty good baseline for 'extremely safe.' The most condemning data we as armchair sleuths have is that the NTSB who did have all the data on incident rates opened an investigation in 1999. They concluded that the boats weren't safe. They recommended that they be retrofitted with reserve buoyancy, that electric bill pumps be installed (so that bilge pumps keep working when the engine is swamped), and that the canopies be removed or replaced with coast guard approved canopies that allow for easy escape. >Also, can you please provide evidence of even just a single duck boat with windows? I just tried pretty hard to find even a single one, and failed. But yeah, velcro or drop sheets are of course part of the system. And again those are designed to be able to be rapidly removed. https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2018/07/22/PSPR/90431ecf-5863-4ec0-be8c-89391bd4fdb9-tDuck_memorial00055.jpg?crop=4388,3269,x251,y0&width=520&height=390&fit=bounds https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2018/07/22/PSPR/90431ecf-... Those were on the Missouri boat that sank. They can be electronically raised and lowered by the captain [1]. They don't look like they are easy to remove without the captain raising them. From watching video taken inside, they don't appear to be held on by something easy to remove like velcro. According to eye witness reports they weren't able to easily escape through the windows. "Keller said her daughter made it clear that the canopy was on and the windows were sealed." "They were all closed," Keller said her daughter told her. "The windows were closed and the top was on." "It was so hard to get out of the boat, Mom. It was so hard to get out of the boat."[2] You also have designs like this: https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2018_29/2504521/180720-miss-majestic-accident-al-1153_13391f61ec5f548810895557acd3ddb2.fit-760w.jpg https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2018_29/2504521/18072... Where the window openings are too narrow to allow for quick escape. Especially considering how low in the water they ride and how quickly they sink. 1. https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article215235950.html https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article215235950.html 2. https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article215257665.html https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article215257...

TangoTrotFox 8y ago
I increasingly feel like I'm playing Where's Waldo when it comes to digging out facts in between appeals to emotion in media articles. Your articles confirm that the "windows" are plastic curtains which one individual described as being difficult for children or elderly to open. The canopy was also detachable, and was detached, during the incident. And before diverging too much, the point I was getting at here is that these incidents seem to be extremely rare relative to the usage of these vehicles. And (at risk of hijacking my own point, again) in this case the major problem was not the boat itself, but a captain bringing his passengers out into a very severe storm - with possible wind speeds in excess of 60 mph in the exact lake they were going into. And the warning was released before they even entered the water. That's enough to wreck any small water vehicle. And the captain also did not tell the passengers to put on their life vests even when telling them this was the worst storm he'd ever seen. He probably did not want to start a panic but, at least in hindsight, that was another bad judgement call on his part. It'll be up to the courts to decide if that judgement entered into the realm of negligence.
- learc83 8y ago
  >Described as being difficult for children or elderly to open. That part was a paraphrase of what he said. You ignored the next part which was a direct quote: the windows would "prevent you from even trying to get out. You need to swim toward the back of the boat. But there being 30-plus people in there, I could just ... just all the chaos happening in there I think it would be difficult to calmly line up and go out the back." He's not talking about just children and elderly when he mentions people calmly lining up and going out the back. Look at the plastic sheeting. They are raised and lowered electronically and the sheets take up an entire side of the boat. Nothing about them looks well designed to allow quick escape in an emergency. >These incidents seem to be extremely rare relative to the usage of these vehicles. You don't know that at all. You have no idea how often they are are used or how many of them are operating. You don't have the information say whether they are more or less dangerous than other tour boats. You know who does have this information, the NTSB. Their conclusion is that they are unsafe and should be heavily modified. >And the captain also did not tell the passengers to put on their life vests The coast guard doesn't recommend wearing life vest while under a canopy because if the boat goes down the vest can pin you under the canopy. In the 1999 sinking they found 4 people with life vests stuck under the canopy. > The canopy was also detachable, and was detached, This article and pictures I've seen of the recovered boat indicates that it wasn't actually detached, "The boat appeared largely intact with holes in its canvas top.." It looks like it either ripped or a few flaps were opened in it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coast-guard-preparing-to-raise-duck-boat-in-fatal-missouri-accident-1532348915 https://www.wsj.com/articles/coast-guard-preparing-to-raise-... A private inspector who inspected the boats for the company that owns them last year even warned the company about how dangerous they were. He inspected 20 of them and thought they were too dangerous. He said: "The biggest problem with a duck when it sinks is that canopy, Paul said. “That canopy becomes what I’ll call a people catcher, and people can’t get out from under that canopy."