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I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stro

I applaud the concrete predictions, but like all the sky-is-falling things I've read about Trump and the tariffs which haven't (yet?) come to pass, I think Stross's are over the top and business will continue as usual. We'll see, it's good he's stockpiling food and medicine since that's consistent with his worldview, but I wonder if we'll learn anything from the outcome since one of us will be very, very incorrect. The Northern Ireland bit was interesting to me. Maybe I misunderstood the tone but it seemed to me that Stross wanted a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain, and no such border between it and Ireland? That seems bizarre to me if you think of the UK as one country, and Ireland as a different one. Or am I misreading it? If it's untenable for the borders to work that way, it seems to me Northern Ireland isn't (not "shouldn't be" but specifically "isn't") a part of the British people's nation already, and borders should be re-drawn to reflect that.

kevingadd 8y ago
Brexit is an entire different category from Trump. I say this as a left-leaning US resident: We're not in nearly the trouble that Britain would be in in the event of the kind of nasty outcome they could get from a bad Brexit agreement. Just northern Ireland alone is a huge risk given how nasty the Troubles were and how fragile that peace is. If you combine shattered peace (and resulting conflict/terrorism spikes) along with difficulty importing food/essentials and the natural spike in xenophobia that tends to come in times of suffering, there's a lot at risk. I think Stross's goal here is to enumerate all of the things that COULD go wrong, and provide a basic explanation of why each one could happen. It does a decent job of that even if it comes off as aggressively alarmist - the reality is that even in the event of a bad deal, not all of them would come to pass. On the other hand, more than a few of them coming to pass at once would be devastating. Just food or medicine shortages would be potentially crippling, the economy is going to suffer no matter what (which will lead to jobs losses), etc.
arethuza 8y ago
I don't think Charlie is saying he wants a customs border between NI and the rest of the UK - just that its an option that the DUP would never agree to. While NI is an integral part of the UK it does have an unusual status because of the Good Friday Agreement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement
lettergram 8y ago
A bit of history - in Northern Ireland, before the Good Friday Agreement, the IRA was killing MPs... Part of that was because they didn't feel they had a representation. So now they do have a lot more self-government, including a Northern Ireland Assembly and Northern Ireland Executive. They to some extent are a state within a state already, and if they close the border with Ireland, that agreement is broken... I'm sure you already have some of the IRA gearing up.
- maaark 8y ago
  No government here, lad. https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/ https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/ 34 days until the record!
andyjohnson0 8y ago
> Maybe I misunderstood the tone but it seemed to me that Stross wanted a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain, and no such border between it and Ireland? I don't think he was expressing a preference. Rather he was saying that either option is politically impossible, and that the only other option is a hard brexit.
- maaark 8y ago
  Hard brexit isn't an alternative to a customs border between NI and ROI either. The only way to avoid putting a customs border somewhere is to stay in the customs union, which both major UK political parties have ruled out.
jsnell 8y ago
It's not about what cstross wants. It's about what the various stakeholders with effective veto power can accept, and how that makes a deal unlikely.
pjc50 8y ago
> Trump and tariffs Already happening: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-to-announce-12-billion-in-aid-to-farmers-affected-by-tariffs/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-to-announc... > That seems bizarre to me if you think of the UK as one country, and Ireland as a different one. Even if you do, what constitutes "Ireland"? https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo6/12-13-14/41 https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo6/12-13-14/41 : "Republic of Ireland not a foreign country." The whole situation is a fudge; the Protestant community refused (with violence) to be part of a Catholic Ireland, and Irish people both sides of the border refuse to accept the arbitrary partitioning of Ireland ("the island of Ireland"). The UK has a peace agreement (Good Friday Agreement) which enumerates the compromises. People born in NI are entitled to citizenship of both countries, for example. It does not actually encode "there shall not be a customs border", but everyone remembers that the IRA used to bomb customs posts. http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_frida... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/The_hardest_border https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/The_hardest_bord...
maxerickson 8y ago
The government is going to pay farmers $12 billion in aid due to the tariffs and then they are going to put crops in piles to rot. I guess that technically isn't the sky falling, but the food going to waste is the sort of thing reasonable people would have predicted. They wouldn't necessarily have predicted the targeted bailout. Another thing where the sky isn't falling is that companies that consume steel and aluminum are doing worse. Again, exactly the sort of thing that reasonable people predicted.
- losvedir 8y ago
  > I guess that technically isn't the sky falling Right that is exactly my point. It's totally plausible that we might waste some food or money. By "sky is falling" I mean things like these wink-wink-nudge-nudge articles that Trump is ready for WW3 [0] and is able to use nukes whenever he wants [1], or that 1,000 economists imply tariffs can lead to another Great Depression [2]. It's that latter tenor that I'm getting from cstross's post. I don't doubt that mildly bad things can happen as a result of Brexit. I just am skeptical it will be more than your usual recession, say. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/book-party/wp/2016/11/22/trumps-national-security-adviser-is-ready-to-fight-another-world-war/?utm_term=.1f549ec9fdac https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/book-party/wp/2016/11/22... [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/no-one-can-stop-president-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-thats-by-design/?utm_term=.b3237f5b1960 https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump-trade-economists-warning-great-depression https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump...
  - maxerickson 8y ago
    The article about nukes is true and doesn't have any connection to tariffs? I guess a fun game for you to play would be to write down the positive outcomes you expect and the worst case scenarios you expect. Then if you are wrong you can eat your keyboard or something. And if you are right then you are right.
mig1 8y ago
I think you don't know enough about the EU if you think business will continue as usual... When the EU says it's preparing for NDB, it's referring to the fact that the Dutch government already hired around 1000 customs officials to deal with it. Business won't continue as usual.

kevingadd 8y ago

Brexit is an entire different category from Trump. I say this as a left-leaning US resident: We're not in nearly the trouble that Britain would be in in the event of the kind of nasty outcome they could get from a bad Brexit agreement. Just northern Ireland alone is a huge risk given how nasty the Troubles were and how fragile that peace is. If you combine shattered peace (and resulting conflict/terrorism spikes) along with difficulty importing food/essentials and the natural spike in xenophobia that tends to come in times of suffering, there's a lot at risk. I think Stross's goal here is to enumerate all of the things that COULD go wrong, and provide a basic explanation of why each one could happen. It does a decent job of that even if it comes off as aggressively alarmist - the reality is that even in the event of a bad deal, not all of them would come to pass. On the other hand, more than a few of them coming to pass at once would be devastating. Just food or medicine shortages would be potentially crippling, the economy is going to suffer no matter what (which will lead to jobs losses), etc.

arethuza 8y ago

I don't think Charlie is saying he wants a customs border between NI and the rest of the UK - just that its an option that the DUP would never agree to. While NI is an integral part of the UK it does have an unusual status because of the Good Friday Agreement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement

lettergram 8y ago

A bit of history - in Northern Ireland, before the Good Friday Agreement, the IRA was killing MPs... Part of that was because they didn't feel they had a representation. So now they do have a lot more self-government, including a Northern Ireland Assembly and Northern Ireland Executive. They to some extent are a state within a state already, and if they close the border with Ireland, that agreement is broken... I'm sure you already have some of the IRA gearing up.

maaark 8y ago
No government here, lad. https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/ https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/ 34 days until the record!

andyjohnson0 8y ago

> Maybe I misunderstood the tone but it seemed to me that Stross wanted a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain, and no such border between it and Ireland? I don't think he was expressing a preference. Rather he was saying that either option is politically impossible, and that the only other option is a hard brexit.

maaark 8y ago
Hard brexit isn't an alternative to a customs border between NI and ROI either. The only way to avoid putting a customs border somewhere is to stay in the customs union, which both major UK political parties have ruled out.

jsnell 8y ago

It's not about what cstross wants. It's about what the various stakeholders with effective veto power can accept, and how that makes a deal unlikely.

pjc50 8y ago

> Trump and tariffs Already happening: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-to-announce-12-billion-in-aid-to-farmers-affected-by-tariffs/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-to-announc... > That seems bizarre to me if you think of the UK as one country, and Ireland as a different one. Even if you do, what constitutes "Ireland"? https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo6/12-13-14/41 https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo6/12-13-14/41 : "Republic of Ireland not a foreign country." The whole situation is a fudge; the Protestant community refused (with violence) to be part of a Catholic Ireland, and Irish people both sides of the border refuse to accept the arbitrary partitioning of Ireland ("the island of Ireland"). The UK has a peace agreement (Good Friday Agreement) which enumerates the compromises. People born in NI are entitled to citizenship of both countries, for example. It does not actually encode "there shall not be a customs border", but everyone remembers that the IRA used to bomb customs posts. http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_frida... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/The_hardest_border https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/The_hardest_bord...

maxerickson 8y ago

The government is going to pay farmers $12 billion in aid due to the tariffs and then they are going to put crops in piles to rot. I guess that technically isn't the sky falling, but the food going to waste is the sort of thing reasonable people would have predicted. They wouldn't necessarily have predicted the targeted bailout. Another thing where the sky isn't falling is that companies that consume steel and aluminum are doing worse. Again, exactly the sort of thing that reasonable people predicted.

losvedir 8y ago
> I guess that technically isn't the sky falling Right that is exactly my point. It's totally plausible that we might waste some food or money. By "sky is falling" I mean things like these wink-wink-nudge-nudge articles that Trump is ready for WW3 [0] and is able to use nukes whenever he wants [1], or that 1,000 economists imply tariffs can lead to another Great Depression [2]. It's that latter tenor that I'm getting from cstross's post. I don't doubt that mildly bad things can happen as a result of Brexit. I just am skeptical it will be more than your usual recession, say. [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/book-party/wp/2016/11/22/trumps-national-security-adviser-is-ready-to-fight-another-world-war/?utm_term=.1f549ec9fdac https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/book-party/wp/2016/11/22... [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/no-one-can-stop-president-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-thats-by-design/?utm_term=.b3237f5b1960 https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump-trade-economists-warning-great-depression https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump...
- maxerickson 8y ago
  The article about nukes is true and doesn't have any connection to tariffs? I guess a fun game for you to play would be to write down the positive outcomes you expect and the worst case scenarios you expect. Then if you are wrong you can eat your keyboard or something. And if you are right then you are right.

mig1 8y ago

I think you don't know enough about the EU if you think business will continue as usual... When the EU says it's preparing for NDB, it's referring to the fact that the Dutch government already hired around 1000 customs officials to deal with it. Business won't continue as usual.