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Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/ Extrapolating from a single neighbourhood to an entire city is not valid reasoning. Perhaps the ne
by j9461701 8y ago
Relevant XKCD:
https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
Extrapolating from a single neighbourhood to an entire city is not valid reasoning.
Perhaps the neighbourhood was especially amenable to the program, perhaps the crime rate failed to stay low, perhaps some extra-judicial phenomena struck that particular area (say a new factory opening up that boosted the local economy significantly). Or coming at it from the other angle, who's to say New York hasn't had one or two of its neighbourhoods experience extreme marked drops in crime year-over-year too? The 75% over a decade figure is an aggregate for the entire city, and surely it's going to have happened faster in some areas and slower in others.
Only by comparing apples to apples, or in this case cities to cities, and not just for a single year but over many years can we reach valid conclusions. And in that case we find the VRU approach in Glasgow failed to out perform the null hypothesis.
- brilee 8y agoUnsure why this is downvoted. When averaging results over a whole city, you've eliminated most sources of noise. But if you average neighborhood by neighborhood, then you have 20x smaller samples, and on top of that, 20x more chances to p-hack. So it's unsurprising to me that there exists some neighborhood where crime rates dropped significantly in one year. I think GP's comment would be stronger if they had given absolute numbers instead of "67% decrease".