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> It sounds more like he has a war like Iraq and Afghanistan in mind. Imagine [...] So... that would make them exactly the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. If tha

> It sounds more like he has a war like Iraq and Afghanistan in mind. Imagine [...] So... that would make them exactly the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. If that were the case we wouldn't have to imagine, we'd have the results in the field already. So that war must be of a different kind. Not the kind where you already have technical superiority and have 0 incentive to develop it because you can already make truckloads of money by supplying current generation equipment to the front lines. It has to be a war where developing the new tech is the difference between your country existing or not a decade or more from now. That's a special kind of war. It could be a cold war but it's unlikely to have one of those in the same way the one from the 20th century unfolded. And if that kind of "hot" war is the only one that can bring these improvements I'd rather stick to driving my own car and labeling my own photo library :).

phyller 8y ago
I think you are half right. It would take wars exactly like Irag and Afghanistan. And here we are, testing autonomous vehicles. Perhaps I'm wrong, but my understanding was the current raft of autonomous technology was supported in it's early stages by DARPA, with their priorities set by what was going on in Iraq and Afghanistan. Someone I know frequently relays an anecdote. They were designing a new military helicopter. One of the requirements was that if the pilot was injured the aircraft should be able to return to base and come to a hover. They were trying to figure out how to cut weight. My friend said, well, if we just remove the pilot and all the equipment needed to support them, we'll lose a lot of weight, and the vehicle will be more aerodynamic. His suggestion wasn't taken seriously. That was before Iraq/Afghanistan. That project got canceled, my friend retired. I have another friend working at the same company. They are building an autonomous helicopter. *Edit: ok looks like someone else already noticed this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17600849 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17600849
- close04 8y ago
  What I mean is that it's not these wars that will bring you autonomous vehicles. It's war in general, the idea of using autonomous machines of any kind for war is very old, and so is the study of it. But Iraq has been a war zone for decades now (with intermezzos). And although some of the tech was there since before the Gulf War we still haven't progressed that far in ~30 years. This kind of war brings slightly accelerated incremental progress, evolution. Something like a WW or a cold war where you question whether your city will be the next Hiroshima brings you a jump: the nuclear bomb, the ICBM, man in space and on the Moon, and so many other Sci-Fi tech. That's what I meant. Yes, today we have slightly better autonomous vehicles than a decade ago but this is natural evolution and it relied on progress in so many other (not necessarily war driven) improvements: computers, electronics, etc. I would rather not see the war that brings you the AI for autonomous machines.

phyller 8y ago

I think you are half right. It would take wars exactly like Irag and Afghanistan. And here we are, testing autonomous vehicles. Perhaps I'm wrong, but my understanding was the current raft of autonomous technology was supported in it's early stages by DARPA, with their priorities set by what was going on in Iraq and Afghanistan. Someone I know frequently relays an anecdote. They were designing a new military helicopter. One of the requirements was that if the pilot was injured the aircraft should be able to return to base and come to a hover. They were trying to figure out how to cut weight. My friend said, well, if we just remove the pilot and all the equipment needed to support them, we'll lose a lot of weight, and the vehicle will be more aerodynamic. His suggestion wasn't taken seriously. That was before Iraq/Afghanistan. That project got canceled, my friend retired. I have another friend working at the same company. They are building an autonomous helicopter. *Edit: ok looks like someone else already noticed this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17600849 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17600849

close04 8y ago
What I mean is that it's not these wars that will bring you autonomous vehicles. It's war in general, the idea of using autonomous machines of any kind for war is very old, and so is the study of it. But Iraq has been a war zone for decades now (with intermezzos). And although some of the tech was there since before the Gulf War we still haven't progressed that far in ~30 years. This kind of war brings slightly accelerated incremental progress, evolution. Something like a WW or a cold war where you question whether your city will be the next Hiroshima brings you a jump: the nuclear bomb, the ICBM, man in space and on the Moon, and so many other Sci-Fi tech. That's what I meant. Yes, today we have slightly better autonomous vehicles than a decade ago but this is natural evolution and it relied on progress in so many other (not necessarily war driven) improvements: computers, electronics, etc. I would rather not see the war that brings you the AI for autonomous machines.