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But it does make you more likely to be convicted of a crime you didn’t commit, which seems like a bad thing.

by mikeash 8y ago

fastball 8y ago
A likelihood that is 100% informed by a choice you make.
- mikeash 8y ago
  What’s your point?
  - fastball 8y ago
    100% of innocent people can choose not to take a plea deal. The fact that some innocent people might take plea deals anyway is a way of managing your downside. That seems reasonable.
    - dragonwriter 8y ago
      > 100% of innocent people can choose not to take a plea deal But innocent party A can't choose not to have a third-party B take a plea deal in which testimony that reinforces the prosecution of A is rewarded with a lighter sentence for B than a guilty plea without such testimony would get.
      - fastball 8y ago
        So you're saying that plea deals encourage people to lie under oath? That seems like an entirely different problem from innocent people pleading guilty.
    - mikeash 8y ago
      You think it’s reasonable to threaten innocent people with long prison terms to convince them to plead guilty to a crime they didn’t commit?
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  > A likelihood that is 100% informed by a choice you make. No, it's not. The status quo practice of plea deals not only encourages false guilty pleas, it also encourages false testimony that confirms prosecution narratives against other people who do not plea guilty, because the extent and effect of cooperation with prosecution is often a factor in getting a plea deal and the sentence received in it. (Now, it probably does more to encourage true guilty pleas and true incriminating testimony, and so in net probably makes justice more accurate than would otherwise be the case; but it toys the balance in favor of the prosecution for both the innocent and the guilty to do that, which can be seen as violating the principle that protecting against wrongful convictions is off greater priority than assuring the guilty are convicted.)

But it does make you more likely to be convicted of a crime you didn’t commit, which seems like a bad thing.

fastball 8y ago

A likelihood that is 100% informed by a choice you make.

mikeash 8y ago
What’s your point?
- fastball 8y ago
  100% of innocent people can choose not to take a plea deal. The fact that some innocent people might take plea deals anyway is a way of managing your downside. That seems reasonable.
  - dragonwriter 8y ago
    > 100% of innocent people can choose not to take a plea deal But innocent party A can't choose not to have a third-party B take a plea deal in which testimony that reinforces the prosecution of A is rewarded with a lighter sentence for B than a guilty plea without such testimony would get.
    - fastball 8y ago
      So you're saying that plea deals encourage people to lie under oath? That seems like an entirely different problem from innocent people pleading guilty.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    You think it’s reasonable to threaten innocent people with long prison terms to convince them to plead guilty to a crime they didn’t commit?
dragonwriter 8y ago
> A likelihood that is 100% informed by a choice you make. No, it's not. The status quo practice of plea deals not only encourages false guilty pleas, it also encourages false testimony that confirms prosecution narratives against other people who do not plea guilty, because the extent and effect of cooperation with prosecution is often a factor in getting a plea deal and the sentence received in it. (Now, it probably does more to encourage true guilty pleas and true incriminating testimony, and so in net probably makes justice more accurate than would otherwise be the case; but it toys the balance in favor of the prosecution for both the innocent and the guilty to do that, which can be seen as violating the principle that protecting against wrongful convictions is off greater priority than assuring the guilty are convicted.)