4 ms·

From the discussion: > However, theoretical projections that failed to consider heterogeneity of effect sizes were optimistic Our and others’ findin

by yk 8y ago

From the discussion: > However, theoretical projections that failed to consider heterogeneity of effect sizes were optimistic Our and others’ findings suggest that imperfect genetic correlation across cohorts will be the norm for phenotypes, such as educational attainment, that are environmentally contingent. So it is somewhat worrying that genetics predict the clearly environmentally contingent like educational attainment better than "cognitive performance." > Our results also highlight two caveats to the use of the polygenic scores in research. First, our within-family analyses suggest that GWAS estimates may overstate the causal effect sizes: if educational attainment-increasing genotypes are associated with parental educational attainment-increasing genotypes, which are in turn associated with rearing environments that promote educational attainment, then failure to control for rearing environment will bias GWAS estimates. That is a very complicated way of saying that some genes express themselves by black skin, and these genes have a strong effect on funds available to the school.

gwern 8y ago
> So it is somewhat worrying that genetics predict the clearly environmentally contingent like educational attainment better than "cognitive performance." I don't agree that schools are any more 'clearly environmentally contingent' than intelligence, especially with the mandatory public schooling applicable to all of the cohorts used. > That is a very complicated way of saying that some genes express themselves by black skin That's a remarkable assertion, considering that this dataset is made of 100% white people, works on white siblings like Swedish twins, and the PGS is still predictive when applied within a separate African-American dataset.
- yk 8y ago
  > I don't agree that schools are any more 'clearly environmentally contingent' than intelligence, Clearly I can change all the rules governing schools without changing the genetics of any of the students. So you are claiming that it is possible that if intelligence could be as environmentally contingent like school system, then one would need to show that this type of study can produce interesting results in the first place. > That's a remarkable assertion, I read the sentence as a general qualifier for this kind of studies. But the objection is, that these genes would produce a clear signal in this kind of studies without any of the causality taking place inside of a brain. (And unlike 'intelligence,' I can actually define what I mean by 'black skin' 'school funding' and 'average neighborhood income.' ) So for the study to have any kind of explainative effect, it needs to show that the effect is created by anything that can be reasonably called intelligence, instead of something that takes place completely outside of the brain.
- danieltillett 8y ago
  It would be remarkable if there was not some predictive value when applied to AA datasets given the level of European ancestory in the AA population is around 30%.
  - gwern 8y ago
    (Closer to 20%, and the attenuation of 85% is about what you would expect; we already know that that's the usual level of decrease when you test PGSes in AAs, and it goes to near-zero in African populations. It looks like it's not an issue of entirely different causal variants or different environments, but mostly LD tagging decay.)
    - danieltillett 8y ago
      The estimated range is 16.7% to 29% according to the fount of all wisdom wikipedia [0]. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans
  - millermp12 8y ago
    It would be remarkable that someone would fall on their sword like that today. It'll be another couple of years before "The Flippening", i.e. scientists looking to cement their legacy doing the political calculation and deciding they'd rather risk some short term fallout vs joining Lyskenko and Lamarck in the history book. That elaborate kabuki we saw from David Reich at Harvard a few months ago? It'll get even more entertaining in the coming months and years as that fig leaf continues to shrink.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

by yk 8y ago

gwern 8y ago

> So it is somewhat worrying that genetics predict the clearly environmentally contingent like educational attainment better than "cognitive performance." I don't agree that schools are any more 'clearly environmentally contingent' than intelligence, especially with the mandatory public schooling applicable to all of the cohorts used. > That is a very complicated way of saying that some genes express themselves by black skin That's a remarkable assertion, considering that this dataset is made of 100% white people, works on white siblings like Swedish twins, and the PGS is still predictive when applied within a separate African-American dataset.

yk 8y ago
> I don't agree that schools are any more 'clearly environmentally contingent' than intelligence, Clearly I can change all the rules governing schools without changing the genetics of any of the students. So you are claiming that it is possible that if intelligence could be as environmentally contingent like school system, then one would need to show that this type of study can produce interesting results in the first place. > That's a remarkable assertion, I read the sentence as a general qualifier for this kind of studies. But the objection is, that these genes would produce a clear signal in this kind of studies without any of the causality taking place inside of a brain. (And unlike 'intelligence,' I can actually define what I mean by 'black skin' 'school funding' and 'average neighborhood income.' ) So for the study to have any kind of explainative effect, it needs to show that the effect is created by anything that can be reasonably called intelligence, instead of something that takes place completely outside of the brain.
danieltillett 8y ago
It would be remarkable if there was not some predictive value when applied to AA datasets given the level of European ancestory in the AA population is around 30%.
- gwern 8y ago
  (Closer to 20%, and the attenuation of 85% is about what you would expect; we already know that that's the usual level of decrease when you test PGSes in AAs, and it goes to near-zero in African populations. It looks like it's not an issue of entirely different causal variants or different environments, but mostly LD tagging decay.)
  - danieltillett 8y ago
    The estimated range is 16.7% to 29% according to the fount of all wisdom wikipedia [0]. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans
- millermp12 8y ago
  It would be remarkable that someone would fall on their sword like that today. It'll be another couple of years before "The Flippening", i.e. scientists looking to cement their legacy doing the political calculation and deciding they'd rather risk some short term fallout vs joining Lyskenko and Lamarck in the history book. That elaborate kabuki we saw from David Reich at Harvard a few months ago? It'll get even more entertaining in the coming months and years as that fig leaf continues to shrink.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]