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Objectively, I think Canada does need more population growth, be it either immigration or more children from Canadians. I think people under-estimated the impa

Objectively, I think Canada does need more population growth, be it either immigration or more children from Canadians. I think people under-estimated the impact of working educated women and modern financial constraints on having more children and thus projected Canadian growth more aggressively than it is so not a deliberate lie. Immigration in Canada is definitely needed as we've been under the replacement rate for 40 yrs and it will be very hard with such a small population albeit declining and maintain the country in terms of taxes, pensions etc.

sonnyblarney 8y ago
"Immigration in Canada is definitely needed as we've been under the replacement rate for 40 yrs " I find this bizarre. If people are not having enough kids than the 1st-order solution is to 'have more kids'. Not 'bring in others' - that would somewhere down the list of solutions. There are plenty of things that can be done to encourage this, but they're not even trying. It's not even a policy. In Quebec, they have socialized early stage childcare and that seems to have actually made some of a difference. "Objectively, I think Canada does need more population growth," As a Canadian, I don't see for a moment why this is true. Most newcomers go to Toronto, Van or Montreal - Toronto has doubled in size since I was a kid and it can take 4 hours to drive from end to end: a sea of identical looking homes, malls and Starbuckses. Vancouver has become one of the most unaffordable places in the world to live. It's like SF but with much lower wages. Contrary to reasonable intuition - in the last 30 years, as we have increased 'diversity' in our population, paradoxically our industrial base has become less diverse. We are no more than ever dependent on basic things like banking, making cars, exporting natural resources and construction. In addition, our ability to make sophisticated products has gone down. Switzerland and the US lead the pack with creating high-end exports like software, financial services, drugs, machinery. UK, Germany, France, Japan do well there. But Canada has gone down on the value chain. This is illustrated by the weird trade paradox Canada has with China: China buys raw materials from Canada and sells finished goods back to Canada, but usually the mapping is the other way around for 'rich/poor' countries, i.e. US buys raw materials from 'some poor place' and that 'poor place' buys iPhones, software and machinery from the US. I think we really need to think about sustainability in population and it starts first with families, and then includes migration as a secondary but important factor.
- mnm1 8y ago
  You can't possibly expect to compete with Switzerland and the US on technology when salaries are two to three times lower in Canada and housing costs like Vancouver and Toronto exist. Immigrants might be willing to work for less but I doubt Canadians will especially when they can drive a few hours south and make two, there, or more times the salary.
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    "You can't possibly expect to compete with Switzerland and the US on technology when salaries are two to three times lower in Canada" Maybe if Canadian companies paid competitively the talent would stay. Point being, that's an issue of equilibrium. The problem in my mind is product leadership. Canada has ample technical talent, but few are thinking in brand, product marketing terms etc., also, there's a weird open relationship with the US. The US provides stability, and opportunity for people to develop, but they have to leave so. So the US-CAN symbiosis basically turns Canada into a 'nice suburb' where things are generally very good, but there's nothing very important happening. The talent/exceptional things happen south of the border. But in the context of migration, it's definitely an odd paradox that as 'cultural diversity' increases, that 'industrial diversity and sophistication' decreases. They may not be drivers of each other though ... the later may be a function of globalization, NAFTA etc..
    - forkLding 8y ago
      I wasn't talking about technological change etc, moreover the USA and Switzerland has a higher immigration rate than us and a bigger immigrant population either by number or proportion (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the-long-view-on-immigration/article36823898/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_St... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Switzerland https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Switzerland). I was talking about how elderly people would get increasingly less of their pensions or benefits if there are less young people to pay govt. taxes in the future because of a declining population below the replacement rate as you can see in Japan. I think you're a bit politically charged in thinking that I was talking about cultural diversity or industrial base, it could be just encouraging more White European immigrants if thats what you want, note that I even said increase more kids from Canadians in my first comment, doesn't have to specify the immigrant population but rather needs to resolve the number of workers per elderly person as I was trying to look at an objective economical data perspective and to increase labour supply via economics. Moreover, continuing on my argument, Canada has an aging population and more seniors than children (https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-the-census-tells-us-about-canadas-aging-population/ https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-the-census-tells-us...) and it will be hard to maintain productivity with an growing aging population especially if estimates put one in four canadians will be above 65 by 2031 although it can be a flawed projection. Moreover, most Canadian immigrants have to meet quotas as either having some kind of skill or some kind of degree before being able to immigrate, refugees is still a small number so if not economically productive, its not because of lack of skills (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the-long-view-on-immigration/article36823898/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the...) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the-long-view-on-immigration/article36823898/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the...

sonnyblarney 8y ago

"Immigration in Canada is definitely needed as we've been under the replacement rate for 40 yrs " I find this bizarre. If people are not having enough kids than the 1st-order solution is to 'have more kids'. Not 'bring in others' - that would somewhere down the list of solutions. There are plenty of things that can be done to encourage this, but they're not even trying. It's not even a policy. In Quebec, they have socialized early stage childcare and that seems to have actually made some of a difference. "Objectively, I think Canada does need more population growth," As a Canadian, I don't see for a moment why this is true. Most newcomers go to Toronto, Van or Montreal - Toronto has doubled in size since I was a kid and it can take 4 hours to drive from end to end: a sea of identical looking homes, malls and Starbuckses. Vancouver has become one of the most unaffordable places in the world to live. It's like SF but with much lower wages. Contrary to reasonable intuition - in the last 30 years, as we have increased 'diversity' in our population, paradoxically our industrial base has become less diverse. We are no more than ever dependent on basic things like banking, making cars, exporting natural resources and construction. In addition, our ability to make sophisticated products has gone down. Switzerland and the US lead the pack with creating high-end exports like software, financial services, drugs, machinery. UK, Germany, France, Japan do well there. But Canada has gone down on the value chain. This is illustrated by the weird trade paradox Canada has with China: China buys raw materials from Canada and sells finished goods back to Canada, but usually the mapping is the other way around for 'rich/poor' countries, i.e. US buys raw materials from 'some poor place' and that 'poor place' buys iPhones, software and machinery from the US. I think we really need to think about sustainability in population and it starts first with families, and then includes migration as a secondary but important factor.

mnm1 8y ago
You can't possibly expect to compete with Switzerland and the US on technology when salaries are two to three times lower in Canada and housing costs like Vancouver and Toronto exist. Immigrants might be willing to work for less but I doubt Canadians will especially when they can drive a few hours south and make two, there, or more times the salary.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  "You can't possibly expect to compete with Switzerland and the US on technology when salaries are two to three times lower in Canada" Maybe if Canadian companies paid competitively the talent would stay. Point being, that's an issue of equilibrium. The problem in my mind is product leadership. Canada has ample technical talent, but few are thinking in brand, product marketing terms etc., also, there's a weird open relationship with the US. The US provides stability, and opportunity for people to develop, but they have to leave so. So the US-CAN symbiosis basically turns Canada into a 'nice suburb' where things are generally very good, but there's nothing very important happening. The talent/exceptional things happen south of the border. But in the context of migration, it's definitely an odd paradox that as 'cultural diversity' increases, that 'industrial diversity and sophistication' decreases. They may not be drivers of each other though ... the later may be a function of globalization, NAFTA etc..
  - forkLding 8y ago
    I wasn't talking about technological change etc, moreover the USA and Switzerland has a higher immigration rate than us and a bigger immigrant population either by number or proportion (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the-long-view-on-immigration/article36823898/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_St... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Switzerland https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Switzerland). I was talking about how elderly people would get increasingly less of their pensions or benefits if there are less young people to pay govt. taxes in the future because of a declining population below the replacement rate as you can see in Japan. I think you're a bit politically charged in thinking that I was talking about cultural diversity or industrial base, it could be just encouraging more White European immigrants if thats what you want, note that I even said increase more kids from Canadians in my first comment, doesn't have to specify the immigrant population but rather needs to resolve the number of workers per elderly person as I was trying to look at an objective economical data perspective and to increase labour supply via economics. Moreover, continuing on my argument, Canada has an aging population and more seniors than children (https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-the-census-tells-us-about-canadas-aging-population/ https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/what-the-census-tells-us...) and it will be hard to maintain productivity with an growing aging population especially if estimates put one in four canadians will be above 65 by 2031 although it can be a flawed projection. Moreover, most Canadian immigrants have to meet quotas as either having some kind of skill or some kind of degree before being able to immigrate, refugees is still a small number so if not economically productive, its not because of lack of skills (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the-long-view-on-immigration/article36823898/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the...) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the-long-view-on-immigration/article36823898/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/were-missing-the...