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The problem is, you do not know how many of the existing deposits are for the base model that has been postponed indefinitely. No one (except Tesla) knows how

The problem is, you do not know how many of the existing deposits are for the base model that has been postponed indefinitely. No one (except Tesla) knows how much of the Model 3 demand is for a product that Tesla can sell without bankrupting themselves. I suspect that many of the deposit holders are waiting for the lower priced versions- it's what they were promised repeatedly, and they were supposed to get base models starting in Q4 2017. Note also that many depositors were expecting to get a $7500 tax credit with their $35K purchase, so many folks were actually expecting a $27.5K car. Tesla might not produce the base version before the tax credit phases out. So how much of the demand is for a real product? Tesla could reveal this information, but Elon Musk famously called inquiries about these figures "boring, boneheaded" questions. As far as profitability, the jury is very much out on that one.

dstaley 8y ago
"Postponed indefinitely" is a really weird way to say "6-9 months".[1] [1] https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png
- rjdagost 8y ago
  "Standard battery" does not necessarily mean "base model". You can't even make a reservation for a $35K Model 3 (I just tried), but I was able to do so in the past.
- maxerickson 8y ago
  Continuing to take Tesla's timelines at face value is also really weird. They'll get some credibility back when their trailing run rate has been 5000/week for a while.
skybrian 8y ago
I agree, nobody knows. I don't even think Tesla knows what demand will be. It's all spitballing and guesstimates. Most people don't put down a deposit on an car that doesn't even exist yet and wait for years. How much demand will there be for the car under normal conditions, when you can take it for a test drive and buy it in the normal way, quality is known, manufacturing problems aren't always making the news, and there's no more status in having one than owning a Leaf or a Prius?

dstaley 8y ago

"Postponed indefinitely" is a really weird way to say "6-9 months".[1] [1] https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png

rjdagost 8y ago
"Standard battery" does not necessarily mean "base model". You can't even make a reservation for a $35K Model 3 (I just tried), but I was able to do so in the past.
maxerickson 8y ago
Continuing to take Tesla's timelines at face value is also really weird. They'll get some credibility back when their trailing run rate has been 5000/week for a while.

skybrian 8y ago

I agree, nobody knows. I don't even think Tesla knows what demand will be. It's all spitballing and guesstimates. Most people don't put down a deposit on an car that doesn't even exist yet and wait for years. How much demand will there be for the car under normal conditions, when you can take it for a test drive and buy it in the normal way, quality is known, manufacturing problems aren't always making the news, and there's no more status in having one than owning a Leaf or a Prius?