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Said another way, Tesla still has existing orders that will keep it busy for a couple years, by which time the Model 3 line will be profitable. Which is to say,

Said another way, Tesla still has existing orders that will keep it busy for a couple years, by which time the Model 3 line will be profitable. Which is to say, Tesla will have succeeded in creating a mass market electric vehicle and turning a profit while doing so, thus changing the landscape to one in which electric vehicles are in some instances preferred to internal combustion vehicles, and so competitors follow suit. Thus accomplishing Tesla’s stated goal of: “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible”. Which is jaw dropping. But everyone is still jumping on the schadenfreuden wagon, why idk. In other news. While you were sleeping SpaceX has a successful launch of one of their block 5 rockets. Oh and landed stage one on a moving target in the ocean. While in parallel developing a rocket to take people to mars. This is insane. And we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Because it’s not a given that these type of accomplishments happen any given day, year, or decade.

microdrum 8y ago
More and more I agree with this. Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their failures. But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck.
- nodesocket 8y ago
  It's actually more simple than that, the media likes to vilify successful and wealthy people because somehow in the last couple of years Marxism and anti-capitalism spread like a wildfire throughout media and academia. When Elon pushed back about false reporting and abhorrent standards he wacked the hornet's nest with a stick.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Please don’t compare Musk to useless wealthy people. He’s invested almost his entire net worth in space travel and electric vehicles. Least terrible billionaire (no sleight to Buffet and Gates though, solid philanthropy effort of their part).
    - scarface74 8y ago
      If you look at most of the unicorns - ie Uber - they are living off of VC funding without any clear path to profitability. At every turn, Musk has put his money where his mouth is. He could have taken his billions years ago and sailed off into the sunset. He wanted to change the world.
      - Fricken 8y ago
        Uber is making money hand over fist. Their Yoy revenue growth is 60%. They would be fools not to be investing their capital in growth.
        scarface74 8y ago
        Revenue is nothing without profit or at least positive marginal revenue. Uber subsidizes rides. No one knows what will happen to Uber once they charge enough to turn a profit on each ride. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uber-must-raise-fares-and-do-5-more-things-to-survive-2017-06-22 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uber-must-raise-fares-and-...
    - rustcharm 8y ago
      As long as he's not calling you a "pedo". That's pretty terrible in my book.
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        I’ve seen better people have more severe lapses of judgement. I’m not condoning what he said, but I can understanding what lead up to it.
- eganist 8y ago
  Wait, what? If the world stayed the same, there wouldn't be anything novel to cover. The survival of journalism is inherently motivated by a need to keep things changing, which is why most outlets by-and-large are either progressive or reactionary: it's change either way.
  - microdrum 8y ago
    Science journalists, of whom there are comparatively few, cover new things. Most journalists cover vituperation, politics, and angst.
    - some_account 8y ago
      They take press releases from Nasa, rewrites them, publishes. Profit.
  - manicdee 8y ago
    For a car journalist, “new and exciting” is a slightly different interior, or a fresh layout for the expected knobs on the dashboard. When you start doing stuff like removing the binnacle, taking away the gear shift, and switching to a completely new Power train, they can’t cope anymore. They have a vocabulary of a few dozen superlatives, mostly related to internal combustion engines (turbo lag, musical exhaust, roar of a motor under load at full throttle, etc). None of that works anymore. They have to develop an entirely new vocabulary for the hums and whirs of an electric drive train with torque vectoring, full torque at 0 RPM, and no exhaust to modify for truly manly neighbour-waking noises, Electric cars have totally emasculated automotive journalism.
- Tomte 8y ago
  As long as they don't care that they are killing people, and will do so forever (with the current hardware), they are "amazing" in a different sense of the word. And please spare me the "if they can lower the number of car fatalities overall, they have every right to actively kill a few people here and there" spiel.
  - donkeyd 8y ago
    > please spare me the "if they can lower the number of car fatalities overall, they have every right to actively kill a few people here and there" spiel Why? Instead of telling people not to make arguments, please make an argument against it. It love to read a well written argument. Until I do, I'll pick less accidents of a different kind over more accidents of the usual kind.
    - Tomte 8y ago
      Simple ethics. If I have saved someone from drowning I still may not kill an enemy. Unsurprisingly the state will still imprison me. Are you seriously arguing the opposite, under the guise of „just asking questions“?
      - donkeyd 8y ago
        I'm both asking a question and showing that I differ in opinion. There's no trying to hide it, it's pretty obvious. Ethiscs is a personal thing, so it's hard to argue in. Your argument though, is not in resonable. Tesla isn't willingly and actively killing people, like you write in your example. It's selling a product, that when used inappropriately, might cause accidents. Meanwhile, when used appropriately, it's saved many lives.
        Tomte 8y ago
        The point isn‘t that some new technology leads to different failure modes. That‘s okay, and good if the total number of fatalities gets lower. But that isn‘t the case with Tesla. Tesla tries to get away with inadequate hardware and misleading advertising (I‘d even call it outright lies if you show a video touting the ease of unattended autonomous driving, and deep down on the page you bury in small print that availability depends on the jurisdiction — meaning „nowhere“) Tesla not only wants to make a lot of money, which means that getting adequate hardware is unattractive, they also need the „Elon as visionary“ nimbus, which also means they cannot concede that their initial estimate what they needed was simply wrong, and they seem to have money trouble on the horizon anyway. That‘s what makes the company scummy.
- ErikVandeWater 8y ago
  > The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck. I think your overthinking this unless you have a trustworthy source; humans are just captivated by all drama related to the most successful. It's not that most people reading celebrity gossip know they will never have a successful long-term marriage and therefore buy magazines publishing the divorce of Brangelina.
bhouston 8y ago
The answer is the shorts. Billions are on the line.
- Pica_soO 8y ago
  Sour losers make for funny headlines. I m just saying, one has to appreciate Elons humor. He is selling tesla shorts right now: http://choicegear.org/index.php/product/mens-tesla-bib-short-by-tesla/ http://choicegear.org/index.php/product/mens-tesla-bib-short... Unfortunatly, they are not meant for swimming, so maybe- should expand his product-pallet with a bathing short in size r (for rat).
- kxs 8y ago
  This was interesting: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-sellers.118431/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-s...
rjdagost 8y ago
The problem is, you do not know how many of the existing deposits are for the base model that has been postponed indefinitely. No one (except Tesla) knows how much of the Model 3 demand is for a product that Tesla can sell without bankrupting themselves. I suspect that many of the deposit holders are waiting for the lower priced versions- it's what they were promised repeatedly, and they were supposed to get base models starting in Q4 2017. Note also that many depositors were expecting to get a $7500 tax credit with their $35K purchase, so many folks were actually expecting a $27.5K car. Tesla might not produce the base version before the tax credit phases out. So how much of the demand is for a real product? Tesla could reveal this information, but Elon Musk famously called inquiries about these figures "boring, boneheaded" questions. As far as profitability, the jury is very much out on that one.
- dstaley 8y ago
  "Postponed indefinitely" is a really weird way to say "6-9 months".[1] [1] https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png
  - rjdagost 8y ago
    "Standard battery" does not necessarily mean "base model". You can't even make a reservation for a $35K Model 3 (I just tried), but I was able to do so in the past.
  - maxerickson 8y ago
    Continuing to take Tesla's timelines at face value is also really weird. They'll get some credibility back when their trailing run rate has been 5000/week for a while.
- skybrian 8y ago
  I agree, nobody knows. I don't even think Tesla knows what demand will be. It's all spitballing and guesstimates. Most people don't put down a deposit on an car that doesn't even exist yet and wait for years. How much demand will there be for the car under normal conditions, when you can take it for a test drive and buy it in the normal way, quality is known, manufacturing problems aren't always making the news, and there's no more status in having one than owning a Leaf or a Prius?

microdrum 8y ago

More and more I agree with this. Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their failures. But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck.

nodesocket 8y ago
It's actually more simple than that, the media likes to vilify successful and wealthy people because somehow in the last couple of years Marxism and anti-capitalism spread like a wildfire throughout media and academia. When Elon pushed back about false reporting and abhorrent standards he wacked the hornet's nest with a stick.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Please don’t compare Musk to useless wealthy people. He’s invested almost his entire net worth in space travel and electric vehicles. Least terrible billionaire (no sleight to Buffet and Gates though, solid philanthropy effort of their part).
  - scarface74 8y ago
    If you look at most of the unicorns - ie Uber - they are living off of VC funding without any clear path to profitability. At every turn, Musk has put his money where his mouth is. He could have taken his billions years ago and sailed off into the sunset. He wanted to change the world.
    - Fricken 8y ago
      Uber is making money hand over fist. Their Yoy revenue growth is 60%. They would be fools not to be investing their capital in growth.
      - scarface74 8y ago
        Revenue is nothing without profit or at least positive marginal revenue. Uber subsidizes rides. No one knows what will happen to Uber once they charge enough to turn a profit on each ride. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uber-must-raise-fares-and-do-5-more-things-to-survive-2017-06-22 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uber-must-raise-fares-and-...
  - rustcharm 8y ago
    As long as he's not calling you a "pedo". That's pretty terrible in my book.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      I’ve seen better people have more severe lapses of judgement. I’m not condoning what he said, but I can understanding what lead up to it.
eganist 8y ago
Wait, what? If the world stayed the same, there wouldn't be anything novel to cover. The survival of journalism is inherently motivated by a need to keep things changing, which is why most outlets by-and-large are either progressive or reactionary: it's change either way.
- microdrum 8y ago
  Science journalists, of whom there are comparatively few, cover new things. Most journalists cover vituperation, politics, and angst.
  - some_account 8y ago
    They take press releases from Nasa, rewrites them, publishes. Profit.
- manicdee 8y ago
  For a car journalist, “new and exciting” is a slightly different interior, or a fresh layout for the expected knobs on the dashboard. When you start doing stuff like removing the binnacle, taking away the gear shift, and switching to a completely new Power train, they can’t cope anymore. They have a vocabulary of a few dozen superlatives, mostly related to internal combustion engines (turbo lag, musical exhaust, roar of a motor under load at full throttle, etc). None of that works anymore. They have to develop an entirely new vocabulary for the hums and whirs of an electric drive train with torque vectoring, full torque at 0 RPM, and no exhaust to modify for truly manly neighbour-waking noises, Electric cars have totally emasculated automotive journalism.
Tomte 8y ago
As long as they don't care that they are killing people, and will do so forever (with the current hardware), they are "amazing" in a different sense of the word. And please spare me the "if they can lower the number of car fatalities overall, they have every right to actively kill a few people here and there" spiel.
- donkeyd 8y ago
  > please spare me the "if they can lower the number of car fatalities overall, they have every right to actively kill a few people here and there" spiel Why? Instead of telling people not to make arguments, please make an argument against it. It love to read a well written argument. Until I do, I'll pick less accidents of a different kind over more accidents of the usual kind.
  - Tomte 8y ago
    Simple ethics. If I have saved someone from drowning I still may not kill an enemy. Unsurprisingly the state will still imprison me. Are you seriously arguing the opposite, under the guise of „just asking questions“?
    - donkeyd 8y ago
      I'm both asking a question and showing that I differ in opinion. There's no trying to hide it, it's pretty obvious. Ethiscs is a personal thing, so it's hard to argue in. Your argument though, is not in resonable. Tesla isn't willingly and actively killing people, like you write in your example. It's selling a product, that when used inappropriately, might cause accidents. Meanwhile, when used appropriately, it's saved many lives.
      - Tomte 8y ago
        The point isn‘t that some new technology leads to different failure modes. That‘s okay, and good if the total number of fatalities gets lower. But that isn‘t the case with Tesla. Tesla tries to get away with inadequate hardware and misleading advertising (I‘d even call it outright lies if you show a video touting the ease of unattended autonomous driving, and deep down on the page you bury in small print that availability depends on the jurisdiction — meaning „nowhere“) Tesla not only wants to make a lot of money, which means that getting adequate hardware is unattractive, they also need the „Elon as visionary“ nimbus, which also means they cannot concede that their initial estimate what they needed was simply wrong, and they seem to have money trouble on the horizon anyway. That‘s what makes the company scummy.
ErikVandeWater 8y ago
> The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck. I think your overthinking this unless you have a trustworthy source; humans are just captivated by all drama related to the most successful. It's not that most people reading celebrity gossip know they will never have a successful long-term marriage and therefore buy magazines publishing the divorce of Brangelina.

bhouston 8y ago

The answer is the shorts. Billions are on the line.

Pica_soO 8y ago
Sour losers make for funny headlines. I m just saying, one has to appreciate Elons humor. He is selling tesla shorts right now: http://choicegear.org/index.php/product/mens-tesla-bib-short-by-tesla/ http://choicegear.org/index.php/product/mens-tesla-bib-short... Unfortunatly, they are not meant for swimming, so maybe- should expand his product-pallet with a bathing short in size r (for rat).
kxs 8y ago
This was interesting: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-sellers.118431/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-s...

rjdagost 8y ago

The problem is, you do not know how many of the existing deposits are for the base model that has been postponed indefinitely. No one (except Tesla) knows how much of the Model 3 demand is for a product that Tesla can sell without bankrupting themselves. I suspect that many of the deposit holders are waiting for the lower priced versions- it's what they were promised repeatedly, and they were supposed to get base models starting in Q4 2017. Note also that many depositors were expecting to get a $7500 tax credit with their $35K purchase, so many folks were actually expecting a $27.5K car. Tesla might not produce the base version before the tax credit phases out. So how much of the demand is for a real product? Tesla could reveal this information, but Elon Musk famously called inquiries about these figures "boring, boneheaded" questions. As far as profitability, the jury is very much out on that one.

dstaley 8y ago
"Postponed indefinitely" is a really weird way to say "6-9 months".[1] [1] https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png https://i.imgur.com/MkRKzvc.png
- rjdagost 8y ago
  "Standard battery" does not necessarily mean "base model". You can't even make a reservation for a $35K Model 3 (I just tried), but I was able to do so in the past.
- maxerickson 8y ago
  Continuing to take Tesla's timelines at face value is also really weird. They'll get some credibility back when their trailing run rate has been 5000/week for a while.
skybrian 8y ago
I agree, nobody knows. I don't even think Tesla knows what demand will be. It's all spitballing and guesstimates. Most people don't put down a deposit on an car that doesn't even exist yet and wait for years. How much demand will there be for the car under normal conditions, when you can take it for a test drive and buy it in the normal way, quality is known, manufacturing problems aren't always making the news, and there's no more status in having one than owning a Leaf or a Prius?