6 ms·

"The US electricity system is at an extremely sensitive and uncertain juncture. More and more indicators point toward a future in which wind and solar power pla

"The US electricity system is at an extremely sensitive and uncertain juncture. More and more indicators point toward a future in which wind and solar power play a large role. But that future is not locked in. It still depends in large part on policies and economics that, while moving in the right direction, aren’t there yet. And so the people who manage US electricity markets and infrastructure, who must make decisions with 20-, 30-, even 50-year consequences, are stuck making high-stakes bets in a haze of uncertainty."

mtgx 8y ago
Anyone looking at the past 10 years of solar and wind growth and price declines who is still "unsure" what the future will bring in the next 10 years and what they should be betting on doesn't deserve to run the given power companies.
- Pica_soO 8y ago
  Its over- any attempt to delay solars victory with regulations, will result in solar being deployed elsewhere (offshore/ south-america) and then delivered at combat prices to the border, deforming a future energy grid even further.
  - trumped 8y ago
    Unless the government start charging crazy fees for imported power...
    - Pica_soO 8y ago
      I wish there was some way to unionize dis-aligned interests. The whole public and all of the industry pays for such mobster schemes, but is unable to rally a viable defense against one little lobby, because...?
      - icebraining 8y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Logic_of_Collective_Action https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Logic_of_Collective_Action
  - lstodd 8y ago
    That's only so if you don't take transmission losses into account. Somehow many people tend to forget that transmission isn't free or even cheap.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - mmt 8y ago
      Indeed. Energy in chemical form is astonishingly cheap to transmit (and store), but, as electricity, it's completely different. The storage problem is part of the point of the article, of course. I always thought this was one of the advantages of rooftop solar, that it would reduce transmission costs by bringing generation closer to consumption, especially at peak, and not necessarily because of costs due to losses in the transmission lines, but costs due to maintaining the necessary capacity in those lines (a challenge for both the SFBA and NYC, IIUC).
- mrob 8y ago
  Tell that to the designers of the Pentium 4. Exponential growth can't continue forever, and it's not always obvious when it's going to end.
- raggles 8y ago
  Obviously there is going to be an increased amount of solar and wind coming online in the near future, and I don't think that anyone running a power system network at the distribution or transmission level is going to dispute that. However there definitely is uncertainty about how much, and there is even more uncertainty about what our loads are going to look like with large amounts of EVs coming online and potential battery deployments. These things could have a big impact on the size and timing of grid peaks and inertia which can require big investments to manage appropriately. And as with any big investment, you want to make it at the right time, and you want to be sure that you are going to make a return on that investment.
- readams 8y ago
  It's also important to note that the value of solar/wind on a grid declines as they become a larger percentage of the power. These power sources are much less consistent and storage technology doesn't exist yet. And if it did, it would require big investments, which obviously dilutes any cost advantage.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    Since this is a discussion mentioning software a lot, it's worth mentioning that big battery cars can be a storage source if they're plugged in at work and at home -- a prediction of whether the owner wants to be full combined with a prediction of near-term renewable generation and you've got a lot of storage without having to pay for it.
- rb808 8y ago
  OK if you know the answers - what % of cars in the US will be fully electric in 10 years? 20 years? Will offshore windfarms be allowed in the US? Will household electricity consumption rise or fall? Will Trump subsidize coal? People really don't know the answers to those questions. Of course they're unsure.
  - EADGBE 8y ago
    > Will household electricity consumption rise or fall? It looks like it'll plateau. As we add more appliances, they just tend to become more efficient. https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-co...
grecy 8y ago
One of the things I love most of all about Solar is it really doesn't matter how incompetent policy makers are. Irrelevant of what they're doing, you can cover your roof in panels and stick in some storage and forget that a grid even exists. People spend a lot of time complaining about things they should just ignore.
- white-flame 8y ago
  Of course, that's dependent on permitting, which can fine you or require you to tear everything down on a whim. It also has huge up front capital costs, with battery replacement being additional burdens going forward, and you probably need to change your lifestyle significantly and rework your house structurally to be more power efficient. Certainly some of the local legislation regarding such permitting is affected by local electric companies wanting to dissuade that. But I would hope that the tides are turning in the direction of easier personal energy independence over the long term.
- icebraining 8y ago
  Are you off-grid? It's not for everyone: https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2018/05/so-you-wanna-go-off-grid.html https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2018/05/so-you-wanna-go-off-grid...
- ams6110 8y ago
  Sure, until you have a week of overcast in the winter and suddenly the grid is very much occupying your thoughts.
  - EADGBE 8y ago
    51/52 ain't bad. It's a benefit to still being connected to the grid. Though I'm sure you'll find "service fees and taxes" eating up a majority of the power bill you thought you were cutting (e.g. my natural gas bill costs $20 monthly to run @ 0 usage, regardless of only using it for emergency heat for the furnace). FWIW, Tesla's (crude) Powerwall calculator suggests 3 powerwalls would account for an instance of this with 100% power generation via solar (7 + days backup, it says). Of course I'd hate to see that installation invoice, though.

mtgx 8y ago

Anyone looking at the past 10 years of solar and wind growth and price declines who is still "unsure" what the future will bring in the next 10 years and what they should be betting on doesn't deserve to run the given power companies.

Pica_soO 8y ago
Its over- any attempt to delay solars victory with regulations, will result in solar being deployed elsewhere (offshore/ south-america) and then delivered at combat prices to the border, deforming a future energy grid even further.
- trumped 8y ago
  Unless the government start charging crazy fees for imported power...
  - Pica_soO 8y ago
    I wish there was some way to unionize dis-aligned interests. The whole public and all of the industry pays for such mobster schemes, but is unable to rally a viable defense against one little lobby, because...?
    - icebraining 8y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Logic_of_Collective_Action https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Logic_of_Collective_Action
- lstodd 8y ago
  That's only so if you don't take transmission losses into account. Somehow many people tend to forget that transmission isn't free or even cheap.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - mmt 8y ago
    Indeed. Energy in chemical form is astonishingly cheap to transmit (and store), but, as electricity, it's completely different. The storage problem is part of the point of the article, of course. I always thought this was one of the advantages of rooftop solar, that it would reduce transmission costs by bringing generation closer to consumption, especially at peak, and not necessarily because of costs due to losses in the transmission lines, but costs due to maintaining the necessary capacity in those lines (a challenge for both the SFBA and NYC, IIUC).
mrob 8y ago
Tell that to the designers of the Pentium 4. Exponential growth can't continue forever, and it's not always obvious when it's going to end.
raggles 8y ago
Obviously there is going to be an increased amount of solar and wind coming online in the near future, and I don't think that anyone running a power system network at the distribution or transmission level is going to dispute that. However there definitely is uncertainty about how much, and there is even more uncertainty about what our loads are going to look like with large amounts of EVs coming online and potential battery deployments. These things could have a big impact on the size and timing of grid peaks and inertia which can require big investments to manage appropriately. And as with any big investment, you want to make it at the right time, and you want to be sure that you are going to make a return on that investment.
readams 8y ago
It's also important to note that the value of solar/wind on a grid declines as they become a larger percentage of the power. These power sources are much less consistent and storage technology doesn't exist yet. And if it did, it would require big investments, which obviously dilutes any cost advantage.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  Since this is a discussion mentioning software a lot, it's worth mentioning that big battery cars can be a storage source if they're plugged in at work and at home -- a prediction of whether the owner wants to be full combined with a prediction of near-term renewable generation and you've got a lot of storage without having to pay for it.
rb808 8y ago
OK if you know the answers - what % of cars in the US will be fully electric in 10 years? 20 years? Will offshore windfarms be allowed in the US? Will household electricity consumption rise or fall? Will Trump subsidize coal? People really don't know the answers to those questions. Of course they're unsure.
- EADGBE 8y ago
  > Will household electricity consumption rise or fall? It looks like it'll plateau. As we add more appliances, they just tend to become more efficient. https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-co...

grecy 8y ago

One of the things I love most of all about Solar is it really doesn't matter how incompetent policy makers are. Irrelevant of what they're doing, you can cover your roof in panels and stick in some storage and forget that a grid even exists. People spend a lot of time complaining about things they should just ignore.

white-flame 8y ago
Of course, that's dependent on permitting, which can fine you or require you to tear everything down on a whim. It also has huge up front capital costs, with battery replacement being additional burdens going forward, and you probably need to change your lifestyle significantly and rework your house structurally to be more power efficient. Certainly some of the local legislation regarding such permitting is affected by local electric companies wanting to dissuade that. But I would hope that the tides are turning in the direction of easier personal energy independence over the long term.
icebraining 8y ago
Are you off-grid? It's not for everyone: https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2018/05/so-you-wanna-go-off-grid.html https://syonyk.blogspot.com/2018/05/so-you-wanna-go-off-grid...
ams6110 8y ago
Sure, until you have a week of overcast in the winter and suddenly the grid is very much occupying your thoughts.
- EADGBE 8y ago
  51/52 ain't bad. It's a benefit to still being connected to the grid. Though I'm sure you'll find "service fees and taxes" eating up a majority of the power bill you thought you were cutting (e.g. my natural gas bill costs $20 monthly to run @ 0 usage, regardless of only using it for emergency heat for the furnace). FWIW, Tesla's (crude) Powerwall calculator suggests 3 powerwalls would account for an instance of this with 100% power generation via solar (7 + days backup, it says). Of course I'd hate to see that installation invoice, though.