5 ms·

The article makes it sound like the only remaining samples are tightly controlled. Remember just a few years back the NIH found some samples lying around in a c

The article makes it sound like the only remaining samples are tightly controlled. Remember just a few years back the NIH found some samples lying around in a closet: https://www.cnn.com/2014/07/11/health/smallpox-found-nih-alive/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2014/07/11/health/smallpox-found-nih-ali... I doubt that it was the only sample in the world to escape eradication.

dfsegoat 8y ago
It was pretty well documented that Russian stockpiles of their India strain went missing by the metric ton, post-USSR. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1039129770495563833 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1039129770495563833 https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/13/world/government-report-says-3-nations-hide-stocks-of-smallpox.html https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/13/world/government-report-s...
- andy_ppp 8y ago
  How is it that we haven’t seen more disasters caused by missing suitcase nukes or smallpox? My guess is the security services are better at keeping things stable than we think but it also probably means you’re under perpetual surveillance.
  - ganzuul 8y ago
    A very optimistic perspective. Seems more likely to me that we are simply lucky than that the intelligence community is competent in their charter.
  - flingo 8y ago
    If potential disasters were actively getting stopped, they'd be documented. I think it's just that nobody has both the ability and desire to destroy the world at the same time. Do we even know if smallpox would kill a modern human?
    - hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
      > Do we even know if smallpox would kill a modern human? The last person to die of smallpox died in my lifetime. I hope I'm not so old that I'm no longer considered a "modern human".
      - lkrubner 8y ago
        At least in countries like the USA there is still some herd immunity. Everyone over the age of 40 was vaccinated and also some people younger than 40.
        lithos 8y ago
        Military personnel are still vaccinated.
        andy_ppp 8y ago
        Do we know if the vaccine works against modern “weaponised” strains of smallpox?
        felix_nagaand 8y ago
        Vaccination would presumably be adjusted for by anyone weaponizing small pox, or any other biological wmd for that matter.
        hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
        Not really. First I'm over 40, and was never vaccinated. Plus, effective heard immunity requires something north of 85% of the population. Smallpox vaccination rates are not even 50%.
        bzbarsky 8y ago
        That "age of 40" number is years out of date. Routine smallpox vaccination for children in the US stopped after 1971, after the disease was declared eradicated in the Americas. The vaccine was given at age 1, so people born in 1971 generally did not get it. So to get to "everyone" you have to look at people aged 47 or above.
  - foxyv 8y ago
    Nuclear weapons have a shelf life that is surprisingly short for smaller more complicated weapons. Tritium dopants and plutonium cores degrade quickly. The cores can be reprocessed but it is difficult. Smallpox on the other hand is much more likely to just get your home country nuked into oblivion if they find who deployed it. It's effectiveness as a weapon is going to be limited in first world countries with ring vaccination programs and epidemiologists. On the other hand it would be devastating to the countries that would have a ideological reason to deploy them. Modern terrorism is a game of chicken. You want to be successful enough to degrade the enemy without triggering a backlash. Smallpox and nuclear weapons are great deterrents, however deploying them would mean the end of the countries and organizations using them. Dr. Strangelove: "Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you keep it a secret! Why didn't you tell the world, EH?"
_d8fd 8y ago
And supposedly the virus can survive for an extremely long time in a dormant state. Could someone do a little bit of homework who died from smallpox, dig up their corpses, and find live samples that way?
onetimemanytime 8y ago
In an all out war those nations holding it tight, might release it. Samson option or just a madman dictator (his military might go ahead with the order too.) So, USA spends next to nothing and has insurance against this unlikely but catastrophic scenario. Makes perfect sense. Others in comments also made a good point...what if the virus survives decades in cemeteries and is released when they dig or move the cemetery. Within a week hours it would probably be spread all over the world, given globalization.
- Bucephalus355 8y ago
  Winston Churchill held out against using Anthrax against the Nazi’s. I think it’s very surprising actually what countries won’t do in an all-out war. After all, the goal is usually to get the enemy to surrender / capture available resources / not turn the rest of the world against you. Millions can certainly die, but it could be very possible say for a World War III between US and China where no one winds up using nuclear weapons.

dfsegoat 8y ago

It was pretty well documented that Russian stockpiles of their India strain went missing by the metric ton, post-USSR. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1039129770495563833 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1039129770495563833 https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/13/world/government-report-says-3-nations-hide-stocks-of-smallpox.html https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/13/world/government-report-s...

andy_ppp 8y ago
How is it that we haven’t seen more disasters caused by missing suitcase nukes or smallpox? My guess is the security services are better at keeping things stable than we think but it also probably means you’re under perpetual surveillance.
- ganzuul 8y ago
  A very optimistic perspective. Seems more likely to me that we are simply lucky than that the intelligence community is competent in their charter.
- flingo 8y ago
  If potential disasters were actively getting stopped, they'd be documented. I think it's just that nobody has both the ability and desire to destroy the world at the same time. Do we even know if smallpox would kill a modern human?
  - hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
    > Do we even know if smallpox would kill a modern human? The last person to die of smallpox died in my lifetime. I hope I'm not so old that I'm no longer considered a "modern human".
    - lkrubner 8y ago
      At least in countries like the USA there is still some herd immunity. Everyone over the age of 40 was vaccinated and also some people younger than 40.
      - lithos 8y ago
        Military personnel are still vaccinated.
      - andy_ppp 8y ago
        Do we know if the vaccine works against modern “weaponised” strains of smallpox?
        felix_nagaand 8y ago
        Vaccination would presumably be adjusted for by anyone weaponizing small pox, or any other biological wmd for that matter.
      - hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
        Not really. First I'm over 40, and was never vaccinated. Plus, effective heard immunity requires something north of 85% of the population. Smallpox vaccination rates are not even 50%.
      - bzbarsky 8y ago
        That "age of 40" number is years out of date. Routine smallpox vaccination for children in the US stopped after 1971, after the disease was declared eradicated in the Americas. The vaccine was given at age 1, so people born in 1971 generally did not get it. So to get to "everyone" you have to look at people aged 47 or above.
- foxyv 8y ago
  Nuclear weapons have a shelf life that is surprisingly short for smaller more complicated weapons. Tritium dopants and plutonium cores degrade quickly. The cores can be reprocessed but it is difficult. Smallpox on the other hand is much more likely to just get your home country nuked into oblivion if they find who deployed it. It's effectiveness as a weapon is going to be limited in first world countries with ring vaccination programs and epidemiologists. On the other hand it would be devastating to the countries that would have a ideological reason to deploy them. Modern terrorism is a game of chicken. You want to be successful enough to degrade the enemy without triggering a backlash. Smallpox and nuclear weapons are great deterrents, however deploying them would mean the end of the countries and organizations using them. Dr. Strangelove: "Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you keep it a secret! Why didn't you tell the world, EH?"

_d8fd 8y ago

And supposedly the virus can survive for an extremely long time in a dormant state. Could someone do a little bit of homework who died from smallpox, dig up their corpses, and find live samples that way?

onetimemanytime 8y ago

In an all out war those nations holding it tight, might release it. Samson option or just a madman dictator (his military might go ahead with the order too.) So, USA spends next to nothing and has insurance against this unlikely but catastrophic scenario. Makes perfect sense. Others in comments also made a good point...what if the virus survives decades in cemeteries and is released when they dig or move the cemetery. Within a week hours it would probably be spread all over the world, given globalization.

Bucephalus355 8y ago
Winston Churchill held out against using Anthrax against the Nazi’s. I think it’s very surprising actually what countries won’t do in an all-out war. After all, the goal is usually to get the enemy to surrender / capture available resources / not turn the rest of the world against you. Millions can certainly die, but it could be very possible say for a World War III between US and China where no one winds up using nuclear weapons.