4 ms·
Many have (rightly) pointed out that this article is devoid of articulating a good reason why the market is at the top right now, and hence, why you should alte
by stygiansonic 8y ago
Many have (rightly) pointed out that this article is devoid of articulating a good reason why the market is at the top right now, and hence, why you should alter your behaviour right now.
Nonetheless, it does outline two key points from my perspective:
1. Saving enough money for unpredictable events. While I wouldn't "put it away as cash" for everything, having an emergency fund that can sustain you for 6-12 months is a good idea. Emergency fund usually means liquid - so cash or a savings account (despite the low interest rate) is your best bet - irregardless of what other investments you may have.
2. More importantly, I would say that this article is a great example of how the environment that one grows up in can vastly change affect their world views. I entered the workforce not too long before the Great Recession of 2008 began.
Seeing my initial retirement fund returns go extremely negative (> -40% for 2008) right at the beginning made me question the "conventional" investment advice to just contribute/DCA into index funds and not look at it. Of course, it didn't help that my first employer went bankrupt in 2009.
I haven't developed such a bearish sentiment as the author of this article, (continue to invest in index funds, with a mix that matches my risk profile) but nonetheless remain extremely skeptical that this bull market is some new normal. Thankfully, I'm in a much better position now (work for a big tech company), but I can see a marked difference between my outlook and those of my coworkers who entered the workforce much more recently.
There are many who've only been working since 2012, and many of them see no reason why you'd want to (immediately) sell the RSUs/equity the company gives you as part of compensation, unless you needed to spend the cash. An argument against this was particularly hard during the bull market of 2017 where equity prices (especially big tech) were essentially just a sloped upward line.
I try to tell them it's about risk management/risk mitigation, but my impression is that most people overestimate their risk tolerance until something bad happens.
- perl4ever 8y ago"Seeing my initial retirement fund returns go extremely negative (> -40% for 2008) right at the beginning made me question the "conventional" investment advice to just contribute/DCA into index funds and not look at it." Psychology differs. I got my first job with a 401k in 2007, and I had no problem whatsoever investing as much as possible as the market declined. Hey, stocks are on sale, right? But temperamentally, I get an intense desire to cash out as the market goes up. When I was a kid, someone told me you haven't made money until you've sold at a profit. Luckily, the fact that it was a 401k meant I couldn't cash out without switching jobs. I think a large part of dealing with risk and money management is accepting the fact of your own psychology and biases.