One indicator people are talking about a lot lately is the yield curve flattening and inverting[0][1]. The yield curve tends to invert shortly before recession

One indicator people are talking about a lot lately is the yield curve flattening and inverting[0][1]. The yield curve tends to invert shortly before recessions, and is pretty close to doing so now. As always, there are a lot of arguments about whether "this time is different" (i.e. even though this signaled coming recessions in the past, conditions are different now so don't worry). Some people at the Fed recently argued that the traditional ways of looking at yield curve inversion (e.g. the 2s10s[2]) have lost their value as a recession indicator, and that we should instead be looking at various near-term spreads[3][4]. [0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/from-citigroup-to-the-fed-curve-inversion-angst-is-intensifying https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/from-citi... [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-20/trump-blasts-fed-rate-hikes-again-says-strong-dollar-hurts-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-20/trump-bla... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/ [3] https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/05/as-the-yield-curve-flattens-threatens-to-invert-the-fed-discards-it-as-recession-indicator/ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/05/as-the-yield-curve-flatten... [4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/dont-fear-the-yield-curve-20180628.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/dont...