3 ms·
>Anyone know what those signals are? A lot of 'end is nigh' articles I've read have more details. Is it just too much growth in the stock market? Debt? Speculat
by aphextron 8y ago
>Anyone know what those signals are? A lot of 'end is nigh' articles I've read have more details. Is it just too much growth in the stock market? Debt? Speculation?
Keep an eye on total consumer debt levels, and more importantly debt-to-income. We've already surpassed the absolute peak value of consumer debt load from 2008 [0], but debt-to-income is still ok for now. When that starts to change we're probably in trouble.
[0] http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-consumer-debt-keeps-skyrocketing-2018-2 http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-consumer-debt-keeps-...
- jschwartzi 8y agoIn this case because inflation marches steadily onward I would expect total consumer debt levels to surpass those from 2008 at some point. You need more money now than you did 10 years ago to buy the same things. If the ratio changes, that would seem to be a more reliable indicator because it means people are closer to unsustainable levels of debt.