5 ms·

I'm encouraged to see that their "vow to resist" seems to mainly involve trying to outperform SpaceX, as opposed to asking for legislation/regulation to give th

by drcode 8y ago

I'm encouraged to see that their "vow to resist" seems to mainly involve trying to outperform SpaceX, as opposed to asking for legislation/regulation to give their rocket program special status. EDIT: At least that was the gist of this article, it seems like other sources suggest they may pursue legislative avenues as well.

JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> their "vow to resist" seems to mainly involve trying to outperform SpaceX The planned Ariane 6 is cost uncompetitive with the Falcon 9 and variable cost and mass uncompetitive with the Falcon Heavy. There are no plans for a European reusable. The “our mission is different...our culture is different” comment implies a regulatory, not technological, solution.
- hayd 8y ago
  They are putting payloads into space, so it's the same mission. What the hell does "culture" have to do with anything? Really, there's a culture against re-useablility? No. It's fine (or at least honest) to admit they're a protectionist block and are looking into regulation to ensure French contacts are safe. But the mission is the same (put things into space), and the culture is irrelevant.
  - sdhgaiojfsa 8y ago
    The culture is at least somewhat relevant if it gets in the way of efficiently performing the mission.
- rory096 8y ago
  >The planned Ariane 6 is cost uncompetitive with the Falcon 9 This isn't really true. Ariane 6 is expected to cost €75 million for 5 tonnes to GTO and €90 million for 11.5 tonnes. Falcon 9 costs $50 million for 5.5 tonnes to GTO (reusable) and $62 million for 8.3 tonnes (expendable). Because Ariane uses a "dual-berth" conops, it (generally) flies two payloads per launch, whereas Falcon 9's excess capacity is usually left unused. The two rockets are thus of comparable cost to a satellite customer, with pros and cons for each — Ariane is more reliable, but you have to work around the other customer's schedule. The worry is that Ariane 6 won't be competitive with future rockets, like New Glenn or BFR.
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > Ariane 6 is expected to cost €75 million for 5 tonnes to GTO and €90 million for 11.5 tonnes. Falcon 9 costs $50 million for 5.5 tonnes to GTO (reusable) and $62 million for 8.3 tonnes (expendable) Why would someone pay €75 million to launch 5 tonnes to GTO on the Ariane 6 when they can spend $62 million and get an extra 3.3 tonnes of capacity on the Falcon 9? Based on your numbers, Falcon 9 is $9 million and $7.5 million per tonne. Ariane 6 is €15 million and €7.8 million, respectively. Given €1 is generally worth more than $1, and that the Ariane's prices are still just projections, your numbers don't paint the Arianes favorably. > Falcon 9's excess capacity is usually left unused Source? It's been a few years since I was in the launch industry, but even then piggyback slots on Falcon 9s were in heavy demand. Sufficiently so that a number of companies (e.g. Spaceflight [1]) cropped up to broker them. [1] http://spaceflight.com http://spaceflight.com
    - makomk 8y ago
      Historically speaking, generally because the money lost by SpaceX not being able to launch on anything close to schedule costs them more than the few percent they could save. (Remember, there's a whole bunch of cost in building the satellite too.)
      - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
        > because the money lost by SpaceX not being able to launch on anything close to schedule costs them more than the few percent they could save This is a valid pitch. Memorably, Skybox almost went bankrupt waiting for their Ukranian launch partner to put their birds in orbit. That said, this isn't a good business plan. Pitching availability for a non-just-in-time manufactured product is a bearish bet on competitors' production schedules. Not a bad bet in the rocket business. But re-usability both decreases costs and increases launch frequency. Ariane 6 is, on multiple levels, the EU calling Elon Musk on a bluff. Not unreasonable a decade ago, when the project was planned. But wrong today. It's also awkward to advertise a project by the low demand for it.
    - rory096 8y ago
cryptonector 8y ago
I remember the early 90s, when some EU bigwig (Modi? I forget) made a lot of noise about wanting to catch up to the U.S. economically.
rory096 8y ago
Stéphane Israël has repeatedly called for European governments to stop competing any satellite launches and guarantee them all for Arianespace, as well as to increase direct subsidies. http://www.france24.com/en/20150620-interview-stephane-israel-ceo-arianespace-competition-us-spacex-satellites http://www.france24.com/en/20150620-interview-stephane-israe... http://aviationweek.com/space/arianespace-esa-we-need-help http://aviationweek.com/space/arianespace-esa-we-need-help Alain Charmeau has as well: >Even as Charmeau decries what he calls subsidies for SpaceX from the US government, he admits that Ariane cannot exist without guaranteed contracts purchased by European governments. To make the Ariane 6 vehicle viable, Charmeau said Ariane needs five launches in total for 2021 and eight guaranteed launches for 2022. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/ariane-chief-seems-frustrated-with-spacex-for-driving-down-launch-costs/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/ariane-chief-seems-f...
- MrBuddyCasino 8y ago
  The typical french reaction. I hope Germany will push back. Anyone remember the European search engine competitor "Quaero", another stillborn EU project?
  - orbifold 8y ago
    The EU is the new Soviet Union eventual economic collapse feels more and more like a real possibility.
  - PunchTornado 8y ago
    a decision like that will keep europe decades behind in the space industry
kurthr 8y ago
As I understand it, they don't have to ask for regulation since they already are state subsidized and a monopoly in Europe. However, they may have to culturally justify it to retain that position.
- ffsc 8y ago
  Not necessarily a monopoly. European states can still launch on other nations rockets. However, Arianespace is pushing for "European First" legislation to keep institutional payloads on domestic launchers.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    And to put this into perspective, SpaceX has launched 1 Spanish government payload and has 2 German payloads on their manifest.

by drcode 8y ago

JumpCrisscross 8y ago

> their "vow to resist" seems to mainly involve trying to outperform SpaceX The planned Ariane 6 is cost uncompetitive with the Falcon 9 and variable cost and mass uncompetitive with the Falcon Heavy. There are no plans for a European reusable. The “our mission is different...our culture is different” comment implies a regulatory, not technological, solution.

hayd 8y ago
They are putting payloads into space, so it's the same mission. What the hell does "culture" have to do with anything? Really, there's a culture against re-useablility? No. It's fine (or at least honest) to admit they're a protectionist block and are looking into regulation to ensure French contacts are safe. But the mission is the same (put things into space), and the culture is irrelevant.
- sdhgaiojfsa 8y ago
  The culture is at least somewhat relevant if it gets in the way of efficiently performing the mission.
rory096 8y ago
>The planned Ariane 6 is cost uncompetitive with the Falcon 9 This isn't really true. Ariane 6 is expected to cost €75 million for 5 tonnes to GTO and €90 million for 11.5 tonnes. Falcon 9 costs $50 million for 5.5 tonnes to GTO (reusable) and $62 million for 8.3 tonnes (expendable). Because Ariane uses a "dual-berth" conops, it (generally) flies two payloads per launch, whereas Falcon 9's excess capacity is usually left unused. The two rockets are thus of comparable cost to a satellite customer, with pros and cons for each — Ariane is more reliable, but you have to work around the other customer's schedule. The worry is that Ariane 6 won't be competitive with future rockets, like New Glenn or BFR.
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > Ariane 6 is expected to cost €75 million for 5 tonnes to GTO and €90 million for 11.5 tonnes. Falcon 9 costs $50 million for 5.5 tonnes to GTO (reusable) and $62 million for 8.3 tonnes (expendable) Why would someone pay €75 million to launch 5 tonnes to GTO on the Ariane 6 when they can spend $62 million and get an extra 3.3 tonnes of capacity on the Falcon 9? Based on your numbers, Falcon 9 is $9 million and $7.5 million per tonne. Ariane 6 is €15 million and €7.8 million, respectively. Given €1 is generally worth more than $1, and that the Ariane's prices are still just projections, your numbers don't paint the Arianes favorably. > Falcon 9's excess capacity is usually left unused Source? It's been a few years since I was in the launch industry, but even then piggyback slots on Falcon 9s were in heavy demand. Sufficiently so that a number of companies (e.g. Spaceflight [1]) cropped up to broker them. [1] http://spaceflight.com http://spaceflight.com
  - makomk 8y ago
    Historically speaking, generally because the money lost by SpaceX not being able to launch on anything close to schedule costs them more than the few percent they could save. (Remember, there's a whole bunch of cost in building the satellite too.)
    - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
      > because the money lost by SpaceX not being able to launch on anything close to schedule costs them more than the few percent they could save This is a valid pitch. Memorably, Skybox almost went bankrupt waiting for their Ukranian launch partner to put their birds in orbit. That said, this isn't a good business plan. Pitching availability for a non-just-in-time manufactured product is a bearish bet on competitors' production schedules. Not a bad bet in the rocket business. But re-usability both decreases costs and increases launch frequency. Ariane 6 is, on multiple levels, the EU calling Elon Musk on a bluff. Not unreasonable a decade ago, when the project was planned. But wrong today. It's also awkward to advertise a project by the low demand for it.
  - rory096 8y ago

cryptonector 8y ago

I remember the early 90s, when some EU bigwig (Modi? I forget) made a lot of noise about wanting to catch up to the U.S. economically.

rory096 8y ago

Stéphane Israël has repeatedly called for European governments to stop competing any satellite launches and guarantee them all for Arianespace, as well as to increase direct subsidies. http://www.france24.com/en/20150620-interview-stephane-israel-ceo-arianespace-competition-us-spacex-satellites http://www.france24.com/en/20150620-interview-stephane-israe... http://aviationweek.com/space/arianespace-esa-we-need-help http://aviationweek.com/space/arianespace-esa-we-need-help Alain Charmeau has as well: >Even as Charmeau decries what he calls subsidies for SpaceX from the US government, he admits that Ariane cannot exist without guaranteed contracts purchased by European governments. To make the Ariane 6 vehicle viable, Charmeau said Ariane needs five launches in total for 2021 and eight guaranteed launches for 2022. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/ariane-chief-seems-frustrated-with-spacex-for-driving-down-launch-costs/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/ariane-chief-seems-f...

MrBuddyCasino 8y ago
The typical french reaction. I hope Germany will push back. Anyone remember the European search engine competitor "Quaero", another stillborn EU project?
- orbifold 8y ago
  The EU is the new Soviet Union eventual economic collapse feels more and more like a real possibility.
- PunchTornado 8y ago
  a decision like that will keep europe decades behind in the space industry

kurthr 8y ago

As I understand it, they don't have to ask for regulation since they already are state subsidized and a monopoly in Europe. However, they may have to culturally justify it to retain that position.

ffsc 8y ago
Not necessarily a monopoly. European states can still launch on other nations rockets. However, Arianespace is pushing for "European First" legislation to keep institutional payloads on domestic launchers.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  And to put this into perspective, SpaceX has launched 1 Spanish government payload and has 2 German payloads on their manifest.