3 ms·

Could this mean the great filter is likely behind us?

cobbzilla 8y ago
It's likely there is no great filter; there exist reasonable claims that the Fermi Paradox has been "dissolved" [1] [2]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17560462 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17560462
- fbreton 8y ago
  If I understand this study correctly, their conclusion is that it is likely that intelligent species are very rare in the universe. This still implies a "Great Filter", but it would have to be behind us.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - logfromblammo 8y ago
    We're only about 5.5 billion years away from intelligent species being either very common in this galaxy, or completely nonexistent. Which is to say that we need to start building interstellar transport vessels soon.
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  "We substituted some guessed numbers for our own" isn't so much a "reasonable claim" as a thought experiment. Even accepting their numbers, it's hardly "dissolved". > When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively).
  - Tossrock 8y ago
    The key insight isn't the substituion of new numbers, it's the use of probability distributions with error bars throughout the calculation, as opposed to picking a single number. The canonical paradox is that even if you pick very small numbers for all the unknown terms, the resulting expected number of communicating civilizations is still high. This work shows that it isn't a paradox when viewed through the lense of a probability distribution, because even if the expected number is high, that's because of a long tail of super high, low probability numbers, while most of the probability is actually on 'alone in galaxy'.
- madeuptempacct 8y ago
  "reasonable claims that the Fermi Paradox has been "dissolved"" There is nothing reasonable or new in either one of those links. Seems like people quoting trash is how myths perpetuate. P.S. Wrapping a quoted quote in the same kind of quotation marks is kind of liberating after years of " 'ayyy' " or "\"ayyy\"".

It's likely there is no great filter; there exist reasonable claims that the Fermi Paradox has been "dissolved" [1] [2]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17302924 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17560462 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17560462

fbreton 8y ago
If I understand this study correctly, their conclusion is that it is likely that intelligent species are very rare in the universe. This still implies a "Great Filter", but it would have to be behind us.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- logfromblammo 8y ago
  We're only about 5.5 billion years away from intelligent species being either very common in this galaxy, or completely nonexistent. Which is to say that we need to start building interstellar transport vessels soon.
ceejayoz 8y ago
"We substituted some guessed numbers for our own" isn't so much a "reasonable claim" as a thought experiment. Even accepting their numbers, it's hardly "dissolved". > When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively).
- Tossrock 8y ago
  The key insight isn't the substituion of new numbers, it's the use of probability distributions with error bars throughout the calculation, as opposed to picking a single number. The canonical paradox is that even if you pick very small numbers for all the unknown terms, the resulting expected number of communicating civilizations is still high. This work shows that it isn't a paradox when viewed through the lense of a probability distribution, because even if the expected number is high, that's because of a long tail of super high, low probability numbers, while most of the probability is actually on 'alone in galaxy'.
madeuptempacct 8y ago
"reasonable claims that the Fermi Paradox has been "dissolved"" There is nothing reasonable or new in either one of those links. Seems like people quoting trash is how myths perpetuate. P.S. Wrapping a quoted quote in the same kind of quotation marks is kind of liberating after years of " 'ayyy' " or "\"ayyy\"".