It seems like most people who manage to hold on to power for long periods of time become fundamentally paranoid. They aren't just looking at present threats, bu

It seems like most people who manage to hold on to power for long periods of time become fundamentally paranoid. They aren't just looking at present threats, but basically are doing a Bayesian analysis of potential outcomes and trying to situate themselves in the best possible way for all of them. For example, Putin may have a pretty firm grip now, but what happens during a sharp economic downturn when some of the oligarchs start to really feel pinched? Since this is almost sure to happen eventually and Putin appears to want power for life, he probably thinks a lot about this and other possible existential threats to his regime and acts accordingly. Leaders with term limits do less of this long term thinking and are therefore less likely to make these kinds of dramatic moves when things seem to be going well for them (for better and for worse).