3 ms·

I don't think there are any serious threats to Putin inside Russia right now. All "legal" political parties are under his thumb, and the "illegal" ones (mostly

by mepian 8y ago

I don't think there are any serious threats to Putin inside Russia right now. All "legal" political parties are under his thumb, and the "illegal" ones (mostly Alexei Navalny's followers) failed to display significant influence so far. The siloviki group behind Putin won't benefit much from replacing him, as he's doing a reasonably good job of representing their ambitions. These people seem to be too paranoid and power-hungry to change the political course of the country because of some economical sanctions.

ajross 8y ago
That's the conventional wisdom. I'm just saying I find that hard to square with poisoning folks in London and issuing dick-swaggering videos like this. Those look like actions taken to boost local popularity and quiet internal dissent: "Look how great we are! Also if you cross me I'll find you wherever you may be hiding and poison your ass." I don't doubt that his position is mechanically secure. But he's still just one guy, and the oligarchs as a whole control more of the money, and they're all hurting right now.
- danenania 8y ago
  It seems like most people who manage to hold on to power for long periods of time become fundamentally paranoid. They aren't just looking at present threats, but basically are doing a Bayesian analysis of potential outcomes and trying to situate themselves in the best possible way for all of them. For example, Putin may have a pretty firm grip now, but what happens during a sharp economic downturn when some of the oligarchs start to really feel pinched? Since this is almost sure to happen eventually and Putin appears to want power for life, he probably thinks a lot about this and other possible existential threats to his regime and acts accordingly. Leaders with term limits do less of this long term thinking and are therefore less likely to make these kinds of dramatic moves when things seem to be going well for them (for better and for worse).

by mepian 8y ago

ajross 8y ago

That's the conventional wisdom. I'm just saying I find that hard to square with poisoning folks in London and issuing dick-swaggering videos like this. Those look like actions taken to boost local popularity and quiet internal dissent: "Look how great we are! Also if you cross me I'll find you wherever you may be hiding and poison your ass." I don't doubt that his position is mechanically secure. But he's still just one guy, and the oligarchs as a whole control more of the money, and they're all hurting right now.

danenania 8y ago
It seems like most people who manage to hold on to power for long periods of time become fundamentally paranoid. They aren't just looking at present threats, but basically are doing a Bayesian analysis of potential outcomes and trying to situate themselves in the best possible way for all of them. For example, Putin may have a pretty firm grip now, but what happens during a sharp economic downturn when some of the oligarchs start to really feel pinched? Since this is almost sure to happen eventually and Putin appears to want power for life, he probably thinks a lot about this and other possible existential threats to his regime and acts accordingly. Leaders with term limits do less of this long term thinking and are therefore less likely to make these kinds of dramatic moves when things seem to be going well for them (for better and for worse).