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As Apple enthusiasts love to point out, a huge chunk of Android sales are low end feature phone replacements. If you exclude those then the two platforms are mu

As Apple enthusiasts love to point out, a huge chunk of Android sales are low end feature phone replacements. If you exclude those then the two platforms are much closer to parity in marketshare. And Android's hold is precarious. Pretty much only Samsung is making any money on Android and even they are seeing declining sales for their flagship phones. I'm convinced if Apple ever offers a decent (not iPhone SE) iPhone at around the $300 price point it will be a bloodbath for Android OEMs. I'm convinced this decision will one day seen as a mistake by the EC. Hopefully it won't destroy what is a now a healthy & competitive marketplace with a lot of meaningful choice for consumers.

enitihas 8y ago
Exactly, this decision will benefit apple a lot, as they would be free to integrate their platform and offerings in all sorts of ways, continuing to charge their premium, where as the "dominant" mobile OS will have to keep itself open and not force anything on users or makers.
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > this decision will benefit apple a lot I don't see how "unt[ying] the Play Store from Search and the Chrome browser," stopping "paying OEMs for portfolio-wide search exclusivity," or letting OEMs sell "devices with Android forks" helps Apple that much [1]. Android will still exist. Play Services and Store will remain Google's castles. OEMs will continue selling Google's bundle. All that changes is now they don't have to. Worst case, Google adds a Play Services licensing fee. If this doesn't result in American antitrust action (for raising prices after forming a monopoly), all it will do is increase some phones' prices. If that matters to consumers, OEMs will be free to release non-Play Android phones at a lower price point. [1] Stratchery
  - enitihas 8y ago
    Sadly, the worst case is not google charging some fee. The worst case is that iOS can become the only mobile os with deep platform integration(apple music, safari, apple maps, app store), where as Android will become more fragmented. Part of the appeal of iOS is the seamless experience among all iOS devices. If your cousin has an iOS device, you can turn to him/her for help. You can seamlessly buy an iOS device and assume more or less the same experience. Android? Your cousin's Android may share nothing with yours, and so may your next Android phone with your current. You may not count on the same browser, assistant, mail, or maps being available in all Android devices. You may argue that people will be sure to differentiate between Android A and Android B, but sadly, people have enough going on in their lives and want their phone to just work. Guess which OS provided the most consistent experience among devices and the most homogeneous app ecosystem? From what I have learned with my interactions with non tech friends of mine, they don't want to know why such and such app is better than the default one. They just want things to look and feel the same and just work as long as possible. You can argue that android already had custom skins on most brand's phones, but at least some platform apps used to be common. This may change even that.
    - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
      > Android will become more fragmented There are deeper factors driving homogenization than Google Play Services. Those will probably remain, driving most Android users to a single fork. What this ruling does is make it possible that the next Android isn't dominated by Google.
      - enitihas 8y ago
        It's not just about google play services. Once manufacturers are free to custimize things as they want, why will they not want to install something like UC browser by default which may pay money. Similarly for a mobile assistant of their own. I know people who had mywebsearch as their default search engine and didn't want to change it to google as they didn't think their was any difference. Given that all of these are solid monetisation opportunities, why would any of them bother to install google apps? Not saying this is bad in itself, but the fragmentation is going to happen.
        s73v3r_ 8y ago
        I'm not seeing the problem. The APIs are still going to be the same; developers are still going to be able to write apps that work for everyone.
        enitihas 8y ago
        The comparison people will make will be against iOS, which will be able to provide a seamless and consistent experience due to the same default apps on each device.
        s73v3r_ 8y ago
        That's not a concern. As long as the APIs are the same, one should be able to install whatever apps they want to use.
        HillaryBriss 8y ago
paganel 8y ago
iPhone SE is a more than decent phone, I’ve paid around 330 euros this winter for one, it does its job pretty damn well (good photo camera, reasonable hard-disk space, I do not perceive it as slow).
- cageface 8y ago
  Yeah the SE is not a bad phone but most users want something larger. A cheap iPhone at least as large as a 6 would sell in huge numbers.
earenndil 8y ago
> if Apple ever offers a decent (not iPhone SE) iPhone What's not decent about the SE?

enitihas 8y ago

Exactly, this decision will benefit apple a lot, as they would be free to integrate their platform and offerings in all sorts of ways, continuing to charge their premium, where as the "dominant" mobile OS will have to keep itself open and not force anything on users or makers.

JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> this decision will benefit apple a lot I don't see how "unt[ying] the Play Store from Search and the Chrome browser," stopping "paying OEMs for portfolio-wide search exclusivity," or letting OEMs sell "devices with Android forks" helps Apple that much [1]. Android will still exist. Play Services and Store will remain Google's castles. OEMs will continue selling Google's bundle. All that changes is now they don't have to. Worst case, Google adds a Play Services licensing fee. If this doesn't result in American antitrust action (for raising prices after forming a monopoly), all it will do is increase some phones' prices. If that matters to consumers, OEMs will be free to release non-Play Android phones at a lower price point. [1] Stratchery
- enitihas 8y ago
  Sadly, the worst case is not google charging some fee. The worst case is that iOS can become the only mobile os with deep platform integration(apple music, safari, apple maps, app store), where as Android will become more fragmented. Part of the appeal of iOS is the seamless experience among all iOS devices. If your cousin has an iOS device, you can turn to him/her for help. You can seamlessly buy an iOS device and assume more or less the same experience. Android? Your cousin's Android may share nothing with yours, and so may your next Android phone with your current. You may not count on the same browser, assistant, mail, or maps being available in all Android devices. You may argue that people will be sure to differentiate between Android A and Android B, but sadly, people have enough going on in their lives and want their phone to just work. Guess which OS provided the most consistent experience among devices and the most homogeneous app ecosystem? From what I have learned with my interactions with non tech friends of mine, they don't want to know why such and such app is better than the default one. They just want things to look and feel the same and just work as long as possible. You can argue that android already had custom skins on most brand's phones, but at least some platform apps used to be common. This may change even that.
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > Android will become more fragmented There are deeper factors driving homogenization than Google Play Services. Those will probably remain, driving most Android users to a single fork. What this ruling does is make it possible that the next Android isn't dominated by Google.
    - enitihas 8y ago
      It's not just about google play services. Once manufacturers are free to custimize things as they want, why will they not want to install something like UC browser by default which may pay money. Similarly for a mobile assistant of their own. I know people who had mywebsearch as their default search engine and didn't want to change it to google as they didn't think their was any difference. Given that all of these are solid monetisation opportunities, why would any of them bother to install google apps? Not saying this is bad in itself, but the fragmentation is going to happen.
      - s73v3r_ 8y ago
        I'm not seeing the problem. The APIs are still going to be the same; developers are still going to be able to write apps that work for everyone.
        enitihas 8y ago
        The comparison people will make will be against iOS, which will be able to provide a seamless and consistent experience due to the same default apps on each device.
        s73v3r_ 8y ago
        That's not a concern. As long as the APIs are the same, one should be able to install whatever apps they want to use.
      - HillaryBriss 8y ago

paganel 8y ago

iPhone SE is a more than decent phone, I’ve paid around 330 euros this winter for one, it does its job pretty damn well (good photo camera, reasonable hard-disk space, I do not perceive it as slow).

cageface 8y ago
Yeah the SE is not a bad phone but most users want something larger. A cheap iPhone at least as large as a 6 would sell in huge numbers.

earenndil 8y ago

> if Apple ever offers a decent (not iPhone SE) iPhone What's not decent about the SE?