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Wilmott has a simpler way of explaining it: in a magician’s show, what are the odds that he guesses your card right? The question makes no sense because there
by pfortuny 8y ago
Wilmott has a simpler way of explaining it: in a magician’s show, what are the odds that he guesses your card right?
The question makes no sense because there is no plausible model: he may willingly decide to guess wrong, for example, or the trick may consist in making you forget the card or any other thing.
Assigning probabilities without a real model is just hubris, no more.
- zentiggr 8y agoBut it is human nature to speculate, to have an opinion no matter how unfounded. Personally, I think the chance of encountering another civilization is exactly [0,1]. Pending data to adjust that range.
- whatshisface 8y agoYou could go to ten thousand magic shows and write down the result of the card guessing each time. Then, based on those probabilities, you could win on average a betting game between audience members about the results of future tricks. No model required.