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One way: find a way to turn your sentiment (whatever it is, honestly a little unclear to me) into a testable, observable prediction, and bet on it. Economist B
by peacetreefrog 8y ago
One way: find a way to turn your sentiment (whatever it is, honestly a little unclear to me) into a testable, observable prediction, and bet on it.
Economist Bryan Caplan has done a lot of this over the years, and -- although he has a lot of non-mainstream views -- I think this habit means he's taken seriously even by people who don't agree with him.
http://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/05/the_bettors_oat.html http://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/05/the_bettors_oat.html
- SI_Rob 8y agoThis is almost an unofficial motto of the "prediction markets" trend, which I've heard rather elegantly compacted into the form "make cheap talk expensive" It runs into a lot of practical problems with standardizing terms, metrics, and especially with actual money on the line, the difficult task of formally eliminating (or even just exposing) the moral hazard minefield that surrounds a mechanism which is doomed to incentivize calculated deception above all other rewards, truth included.
- amanzi 8y agoThanks for the link, interesting reading!