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No, because if the underlying phenomenon happened 20% of the time, that’s what you want your model to predict. The point of the model is to describe reality as
by thousandautumns 8y ago
No, because if the underlying phenomenon happened 20% of the time, that’s what you want your model to predict. The point of the model is to describe reality as accurately as possible. So a model that predicts a particular outcome to happen 80% of the time, and the outcome actually does happen 80% of the time, isn’t any better or worse than a model that predicts an outcome to happen 20% of the time that happens 20% of the time.