3 ms·

This reminds of the teardown German engineers did back in May to reach the same conclusion: https://medium.com/@chrisvnicholson/analysis-teslas-model-3-can-tur

by vonnik 8y ago

This reminds of the teardown German engineers did back in May to reach the same conclusion: https://medium.com/@chrisvnicholson/analysis-teslas-model-3-can-turn-a-profit-6c5e9b13afe9 https://medium.com/@chrisvnicholson/analysis-teslas-model-3-...

jillesvangurp 8y ago
Also check this analysis of the same report by German Handelsblatt (in English): https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies/german-fears-covert-look-hood-tesla-930180 https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies/german-fears-cover... For reference, that's a quality German news publication making the point that German car manufacturers are getting worried, which is probably an understatement. Basically last year, Tesla outsold the German manufacturers in their home market for electrical vehicles. This year is not looking much better. The total amount sold in Germany per month last year was about half what tesla is claiming to do per week last recently. Meanwhile the model S is outselling essentially all similarly priced traditional cars in Europe as well. Unsurprisingly, VW, Audi, Mercedes, etc. have all announced electric vehicles starting to ship "from next year" (numbers unknown, presumably nowhere near 5k a week any time soon). Most manufacturers are being hand wavy about early 2020s type time frames for volume production. If they do have cost issues like this analysis suggests, they'll be struggling to compete on price and volume for quite some time. So, Tesla undercutting them on price and volume is a big deal. Tesla doing battery production and other components in house is a big deal as well. Tesla opening up more giga factories in places with cheaper labor (e.g. China) or in Europe (Germany is being rumored) is a big deal as well. I've been reading all these comments about the imminent implosion of Tesla here on hacker news and I just don't see it. Basically people pulling numbers out of their ass and predicting they won't even last until end of the year. Last time I read comments like this about a company was when I was reading internal comments on the iphone launch while working at Nokia. Needless to say, Apple did rather well regardless of those comments. Basically high placed Nokia seniors were arguing passionately the iphone was shit, the cost was way to high, and no way Apple could match their logistics, and btw. the latest Nokia phones had feature X, Y, and Z so obviously Apple was fucked. Spectacularly wrong on all fronts and Nokia was history five years later because it never managed to recover from being so spectacularly wrong in time to come up with decent, competitive products. I learned a lot about seemingly smart people being completely wrong and suffering from confirmation bias in that phase of my career. I'm seeing exactly the same patterns in the car industry today. I'm seeing a company doing more or less what Apple did to traditional phone manufacturers about a decade ago doing more or less the same for cars. The same kind of arguments and the same disbelief as Tesla ticks off milestone after milestone. Also the same kind of excited user base. Teslas are selling in a way that is very similar to how the iphone market has been rock solid for a decade now. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that most Tesla owners were also early iphone adopters. Sure Tesla is behind schedule. But what schedule is that other than their own ambition? What clock is ticking exactly? What other manufacturer is shipping 5K electric vehicles per week; or even planning to, or realistically close to our producing and undercutting Tesla on price and quality?
- erk__ 8y ago
  I think you underestimate how fast the car companies can set up a production, at the same time Northvolt is making europes biggest battery factory to open in 2020. I think that every european carmaker is going to have up to multiple electric cars before IAA next year. Also you need to remember that apple never really solved the production problem they outsourced it to Foxconn, and are first now taking some of the production back.
  - Dunedan 8y ago
    I think you underestimate how far Tesla already is: - Northvolt doesn't have a factory for production yet. When they plan to open in 2020, Tesla is probably already constructing its second or third battery factory. Also mind the amount of batteries needed for mass-market EV. - Tesla is said to have a significant edge in battery production cost, compared to its competitors. Given that the batteries are the most expensive part of an electric car, that's significant. - Without checking all european car manufacturers: At least the first mass-market EV from VW is expected to hit market in 2020.
  - jillesvangurp 8y ago
    I think car manufacturers are acting like they are behind schedule on a number of fronts and are cutting corners to catch up. The fact is that Tesla has a good 2-3 years ahead of them where they are essentially unchallenged. IAA is nice for product demos but it's not the same thing as shipping products in volume. Tesla announced the model 3 years ago, revealed it two years ago and only started shipping in volume this year. The other car manufacturers are talking about revealing products next year that they will start shipping from 2020. Tis article suggests that Tesla has a pretty strong competitive advantage with their batteries. That suggests that existing manufacturers are going to have cost issues even if they get their production capacity ready on time and batteries completely dominate the cost of the cars. The way I see it, they are several years away from meeting current cost/production levels of Tesla today.

by vonnik 8y ago

jillesvangurp 8y ago

Also check this analysis of the same report by German Handelsblatt (in English): https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies/german-fears-covert-look-hood-tesla-930180 https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies/german-fears-cover... For reference, that's a quality German news publication making the point that German car manufacturers are getting worried, which is probably an understatement. Basically last year, Tesla outsold the German manufacturers in their home market for electrical vehicles. This year is not looking much better. The total amount sold in Germany per month last year was about half what tesla is claiming to do per week last recently. Meanwhile the model S is outselling essentially all similarly priced traditional cars in Europe as well. Unsurprisingly, VW, Audi, Mercedes, etc. have all announced electric vehicles starting to ship "from next year" (numbers unknown, presumably nowhere near 5k a week any time soon). Most manufacturers are being hand wavy about early 2020s type time frames for volume production. If they do have cost issues like this analysis suggests, they'll be struggling to compete on price and volume for quite some time. So, Tesla undercutting them on price and volume is a big deal. Tesla doing battery production and other components in house is a big deal as well. Tesla opening up more giga factories in places with cheaper labor (e.g. China) or in Europe (Germany is being rumored) is a big deal as well. I've been reading all these comments about the imminent implosion of Tesla here on hacker news and I just don't see it. Basically people pulling numbers out of their ass and predicting they won't even last until end of the year. Last time I read comments like this about a company was when I was reading internal comments on the iphone launch while working at Nokia. Needless to say, Apple did rather well regardless of those comments. Basically high placed Nokia seniors were arguing passionately the iphone was shit, the cost was way to high, and no way Apple could match their logistics, and btw. the latest Nokia phones had feature X, Y, and Z so obviously Apple was fucked. Spectacularly wrong on all fronts and Nokia was history five years later because it never managed to recover from being so spectacularly wrong in time to come up with decent, competitive products. I learned a lot about seemingly smart people being completely wrong and suffering from confirmation bias in that phase of my career. I'm seeing exactly the same patterns in the car industry today. I'm seeing a company doing more or less what Apple did to traditional phone manufacturers about a decade ago doing more or less the same for cars. The same kind of arguments and the same disbelief as Tesla ticks off milestone after milestone. Also the same kind of excited user base. Teslas are selling in a way that is very similar to how the iphone market has been rock solid for a decade now. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that most Tesla owners were also early iphone adopters. Sure Tesla is behind schedule. But what schedule is that other than their own ambition? What clock is ticking exactly? What other manufacturer is shipping 5K electric vehicles per week; or even planning to, or realistically close to our producing and undercutting Tesla on price and quality?

erk__ 8y ago
I think you underestimate how fast the car companies can set up a production, at the same time Northvolt is making europes biggest battery factory to open in 2020. I think that every european carmaker is going to have up to multiple electric cars before IAA next year. Also you need to remember that apple never really solved the production problem they outsourced it to Foxconn, and are first now taking some of the production back.
- Dunedan 8y ago
  I think you underestimate how far Tesla already is: - Northvolt doesn't have a factory for production yet. When they plan to open in 2020, Tesla is probably already constructing its second or third battery factory. Also mind the amount of batteries needed for mass-market EV. - Tesla is said to have a significant edge in battery production cost, compared to its competitors. Given that the batteries are the most expensive part of an electric car, that's significant. - Without checking all european car manufacturers: At least the first mass-market EV from VW is expected to hit market in 2020.
- jillesvangurp 8y ago
  I think car manufacturers are acting like they are behind schedule on a number of fronts and are cutting corners to catch up. The fact is that Tesla has a good 2-3 years ahead of them where they are essentially unchallenged. IAA is nice for product demos but it's not the same thing as shipping products in volume. Tesla announced the model 3 years ago, revealed it two years ago and only started shipping in volume this year. The other car manufacturers are talking about revealing products next year that they will start shipping from 2020. Tis article suggests that Tesla has a pretty strong competitive advantage with their batteries. That suggests that existing manufacturers are going to have cost issues even if they get their production capacity ready on time and batteries completely dominate the cost of the cars. The way I see it, they are several years away from meeting current cost/production levels of Tesla today.