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Good, I hope Tesla can find their space and actually become a feasible company. My "commuter" vehicle is paid off in 2 years, so I hope in 3 or 4 EVs are wides

Good, I hope Tesla can find their space and actually become a feasible company. My "commuter" vehicle is paid off in 2 years, so I hope in 3 or 4 EVs are widespread enough to buy one. I drive about 120km round trip, so an EV makes a lot of sense. Don't let my comment history fool you; I'm pro EV, and even pro Tesla. I simply believe TSLA is overvalued, because they aren't going to rule the world. That said, there's a big gap between "theoretically" profitable, and GAAP profitable. Tesla's problem won't be the margin on their assembly and parts; it will be the ongoing maintenance and potentially demand for cars that, up to now, are far more expensive than advertised.

mberger 8y ago
I'm in the same boat. I'm not rich enough to afford a Tesla so I'm hoping the Leaf or similar hit the 20k - 30k mark when I'm ready to buy. I have a 4km (!) commute so range is not an issue. What will be an issue is fitting my house with a charging station.
- lelaurent 8y ago
  Why on earth do you go by car for 4km?
  - MR4D 8y ago
    Rain. Wind. Snow. Freezing temperatures. Hot & humid temperatures. Bad neighborhoods. Heavy briefcase. All sorts of reasons. Several years ago in Houston, we (there were several of us) drove across the street to have lunch most days. Over the course of a year, I never walked the route. Line of sight was maybe 500 yards, but a busy freeway was between the restaurant and our office. While you might think I'm crazy, I don't recall ever seeing any other business-dressed people walk under that freeway. you would be soaking wet from the heat & humidity by the time you got to lunch.
    - ambicapter 8y ago
      Y'all need pedestrian tunnels.
      - MR4D 8y ago
        Funny enough, we have them downtown. They've flooded a few times due to the monstrous rains we get here (see hurricane harvey). I think Minneapolis figured this out the best with a downtown connected by skybridges on the 2nd floor connecting tons (most?) of the buildings).
      - compcoffee 8y ago
        >Y'all need pedestrian tunnels. Yeah, and? Most people also find pickup trucks excessive. And yet, they are the most profitable vehicles on the planet. So much so that Tesla wants to make one. There's a whole world outside the urban bubble, for better or worse.
- elif 8y ago
  i have a similar commute, i just bought a 2013 leaf for $7k cash. I plug in a regular extension cable to my wall once a week. It's easier to upkeep than a boosted board.
  - diebir 8y ago
    How do you justify commuting in a car with poor crash ratings? Leaf is a small (tiny) car from a relatively low rated manufacturer. I understand that somebody may not be worried about dying in a car accident, but the problem really is being hurt and surviving. Assuming you are an engineer, concussion, brain damage, can't work, can't support family, burden on everyone, financial ruin. The car cost is a minor issue, considering.
    - codeulike 8y ago
      Leaf has a 5* safety rating in Europe. And it is not a tiny car. https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/nissan/leaf/10939 https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/nissan/leaf/10939
- martythemaniak 8y ago
  First, batteries are the critical path for EVs. That is, cost, adoption, range, power, etc all a function of the quality of the battery. Second but Tesla seems to have the best battery by far. Unfortunately we can't know this for sure, because businesses like Munro & Associates charge millions of dollars for this info, but what they and others do reveal points to that. There's no reason to believe that any other manufacturer can make a better EV. Nissan, for example, can charge you less, but also give you less battery. Unfortunately for everyone involved, batteries as a whole are still expensive, so it'll take time for the industry to spin up and for used models to become available. My personal guess is that in ~5years, Tesla will be able sell you a $25k car with 400km range. In the meantime, you could look into used Leafs, Volts or i3s, or just wait. For ~4km you also don't need a charging station for those, just a cable.
  - compcoffee 8y ago
    >Second but Tesla seems to have the best battery by far. So you base this on, what, Elon's tweets? Big tradeoff in batteries...expense, reliability, durability. Where are they?
    - mft_ 8y ago
      Where Tesla excels is in the Model 3's skateboard-like, lithium-ion battery pack and related power electronics. "We are shocked by the advanced integration and advanced manufacturing techniques" used in the electronic control center, Chief Executive Sandy Munro told members of the Automotive Press Association on Wednesday. "This is the brilliance of the Tesla Model 3." "Everything that's below the floor pan is amazing." https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2018/04/25/teslas-brilliance-and-inexperience-revealed-in-benchmarking-study-of-model-3/#a8c0ab067c37 https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2018/04/25/teslas-b...
- raisedbyninjas 8y ago
  You can get a low-mileage used Leaf under $10k today.
  - compcoffee 8y ago
    >You can get a low-mileage used Leaf under $10k today. Doesn't meet my requirements, unfortunately. I need 2nd gen.
    - r00fus 8y ago
      Why?
  - mberger 8y ago
    I wish my friend. I'm in Canada. I looked on autotrader.ca. Postal code C0A1Y0. Nissan LEAFs are going for > 30k Edit: Seems I was mistaken, however I would have to drive to Montreal to get it. Worth looking at when the time comes I suppose.
- mikestew 8y ago
  I'm not rich enough to afford a Tesla so I'm hoping the Leaf or similar hit the 20k - 30k mark when I'm ready to buy. You can't give a used < 2018 Leaf away. Go buy one of those, or if you must have new, see if you can find a leftover 2017 (the old version before the '18s came out). You could tolerate riding a wooden plank for 4Km, you're not going to notice the niceties of a Tesla anyway. What will be an issue is fitting my house with a charging station. With your commute, you could charge off house mains (110V/220V, depending on country). Especially Europe, where AFAIK a lot use 220V for house mains, meaning faster charge times than the glacial 110V we get in the U. S.
  - mhb 8y ago
    US houses have 220V. Electric dryers and ranges require it. It's divided into two 110V phases in the electric box.
    - mikestew 8y ago
      US houses have 220V. A fact I was made well aware of when I wired the charging station in our garage. But you're not going to use the 110V charger that comes with the car on a dryer outlet. Parent's issue was having to wire a charging station. I'm saying that with a short commute, you can just use the mains charger that's in the trunk. And that's going to use the same socket that your desk lamp uses, not a dryer outlet.
      - tlb 8y ago
        The mains charger comes with adapters for both 115V 15A or 240V 40A.
        mikestew 8y ago
        Must be a more recent thing, then. Our 2011 has 15A and that's it. Do you know if it actually charges at a faster rate on 40A, or is it just a "cheater" to use in a pinch? Because I'd be tempted to seek out a more recent charger if it would actually charge faster.
- stellar678 8y ago
  At 4km, why not ride a bike?
  - diebir 8y ago
    Because, like, it's a death wish? Riding bike in a city environment in US us very very dangerous.
    - stellar678 8y ago
      I mean, I know that's the case in a lot of places. But it's also not the case in a lot of places so I figured I'd see if OP had considered the possibility.
      - mberger 8y ago
        Legit point. In the summer I do on sunny days. I live near Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada where it doesn't make sense/isn't possible in the winter.
- marklyon 8y ago
  A CPO i3 might be just what you’re looking for today, particularly if you live in a CARB state where you get the super-extended battery (and generator, if you get the “back up plan” range extender). I picked up a 2015 CPO with the Tech Package for the very low end of your price range late last year.
- deno 8y ago
  > I have a 4km (!) commute so range is not an issue. You could just get a long extension cord ;)

mberger 8y ago

I'm in the same boat. I'm not rich enough to afford a Tesla so I'm hoping the Leaf or similar hit the 20k - 30k mark when I'm ready to buy. I have a 4km (!) commute so range is not an issue. What will be an issue is fitting my house with a charging station.

lelaurent 8y ago
Why on earth do you go by car for 4km?
- MR4D 8y ago
  Rain. Wind. Snow. Freezing temperatures. Hot & humid temperatures. Bad neighborhoods. Heavy briefcase. All sorts of reasons. Several years ago in Houston, we (there were several of us) drove across the street to have lunch most days. Over the course of a year, I never walked the route. Line of sight was maybe 500 yards, but a busy freeway was between the restaurant and our office. While you might think I'm crazy, I don't recall ever seeing any other business-dressed people walk under that freeway. you would be soaking wet from the heat & humidity by the time you got to lunch.
  - ambicapter 8y ago
    Y'all need pedestrian tunnels.
    - MR4D 8y ago
      Funny enough, we have them downtown. They've flooded a few times due to the monstrous rains we get here (see hurricane harvey). I think Minneapolis figured this out the best with a downtown connected by skybridges on the 2nd floor connecting tons (most?) of the buildings).
    - compcoffee 8y ago
      >Y'all need pedestrian tunnels. Yeah, and? Most people also find pickup trucks excessive. And yet, they are the most profitable vehicles on the planet. So much so that Tesla wants to make one. There's a whole world outside the urban bubble, for better or worse.
elif 8y ago
i have a similar commute, i just bought a 2013 leaf for $7k cash. I plug in a regular extension cable to my wall once a week. It's easier to upkeep than a boosted board.
- diebir 8y ago
  How do you justify commuting in a car with poor crash ratings? Leaf is a small (tiny) car from a relatively low rated manufacturer. I understand that somebody may not be worried about dying in a car accident, but the problem really is being hurt and surviving. Assuming you are an engineer, concussion, brain damage, can't work, can't support family, burden on everyone, financial ruin. The car cost is a minor issue, considering.
  - codeulike 8y ago
    Leaf has a 5* safety rating in Europe. And it is not a tiny car. https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/nissan/leaf/10939 https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/nissan/leaf/10939
martythemaniak 8y ago
First, batteries are the critical path for EVs. That is, cost, adoption, range, power, etc all a function of the quality of the battery. Second but Tesla seems to have the best battery by far. Unfortunately we can't know this for sure, because businesses like Munro & Associates charge millions of dollars for this info, but what they and others do reveal points to that. There's no reason to believe that any other manufacturer can make a better EV. Nissan, for example, can charge you less, but also give you less battery. Unfortunately for everyone involved, batteries as a whole are still expensive, so it'll take time for the industry to spin up and for used models to become available. My personal guess is that in ~5years, Tesla will be able sell you a $25k car with 400km range. In the meantime, you could look into used Leafs, Volts or i3s, or just wait. For ~4km you also don't need a charging station for those, just a cable.
- compcoffee 8y ago
  >Second but Tesla seems to have the best battery by far. So you base this on, what, Elon's tweets? Big tradeoff in batteries...expense, reliability, durability. Where are they?
  - mft_ 8y ago
    Where Tesla excels is in the Model 3's skateboard-like, lithium-ion battery pack and related power electronics. "We are shocked by the advanced integration and advanced manufacturing techniques" used in the electronic control center, Chief Executive Sandy Munro told members of the Automotive Press Association on Wednesday. "This is the brilliance of the Tesla Model 3." "Everything that's below the floor pan is amazing." https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2018/04/25/teslas-brilliance-and-inexperience-revealed-in-benchmarking-study-of-model-3/#a8c0ab067c37 https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2018/04/25/teslas-b...
raisedbyninjas 8y ago
You can get a low-mileage used Leaf under $10k today.
- compcoffee 8y ago
  >You can get a low-mileage used Leaf under $10k today. Doesn't meet my requirements, unfortunately. I need 2nd gen.
  - r00fus 8y ago
    Why?
- mberger 8y ago
  I wish my friend. I'm in Canada. I looked on autotrader.ca. Postal code C0A1Y0. Nissan LEAFs are going for > 30k Edit: Seems I was mistaken, however I would have to drive to Montreal to get it. Worth looking at when the time comes I suppose.
mikestew 8y ago
I'm not rich enough to afford a Tesla so I'm hoping the Leaf or similar hit the 20k - 30k mark when I'm ready to buy. You can't give a used < 2018 Leaf away. Go buy one of those, or if you must have new, see if you can find a leftover 2017 (the old version before the '18s came out). You could tolerate riding a wooden plank for 4Km, you're not going to notice the niceties of a Tesla anyway. What will be an issue is fitting my house with a charging station. With your commute, you could charge off house mains (110V/220V, depending on country). Especially Europe, where AFAIK a lot use 220V for house mains, meaning faster charge times than the glacial 110V we get in the U. S.
- mhb 8y ago
  US houses have 220V. Electric dryers and ranges require it. It's divided into two 110V phases in the electric box.
  - mikestew 8y ago
    US houses have 220V. A fact I was made well aware of when I wired the charging station in our garage. But you're not going to use the 110V charger that comes with the car on a dryer outlet. Parent's issue was having to wire a charging station. I'm saying that with a short commute, you can just use the mains charger that's in the trunk. And that's going to use the same socket that your desk lamp uses, not a dryer outlet.
    - tlb 8y ago
      The mains charger comes with adapters for both 115V 15A or 240V 40A.
      - mikestew 8y ago
        Must be a more recent thing, then. Our 2011 has 15A and that's it. Do you know if it actually charges at a faster rate on 40A, or is it just a "cheater" to use in a pinch? Because I'd be tempted to seek out a more recent charger if it would actually charge faster.
stellar678 8y ago
At 4km, why not ride a bike?
- diebir 8y ago
  Because, like, it's a death wish? Riding bike in a city environment in US us very very dangerous.
  - stellar678 8y ago
    I mean, I know that's the case in a lot of places. But it's also not the case in a lot of places so I figured I'd see if OP had considered the possibility.
    - mberger 8y ago
      Legit point. In the summer I do on sunny days. I live near Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada where it doesn't make sense/isn't possible in the winter.
marklyon 8y ago
A CPO i3 might be just what you’re looking for today, particularly if you live in a CARB state where you get the super-extended battery (and generator, if you get the “back up plan” range extender). I picked up a 2015 CPO with the Tech Package for the very low end of your price range late last year.
deno 8y ago
> I have a 4km (!) commute so range is not an issue. You could just get a long extension cord ;)