I am not convinced he is right about how susceptible people are to the black swan effect: it seems like your average person overvalues tail probabilities, not u

I am not convinced he is right about how susceptible people are to the black swan effect: it seems like your average person overvalues tail probabilities, not undervalues (hence why people play the lottery and buy insurance). It's been a while since I read anything by him, but I remember not being convinced by how he dealt with the problem of induction either, which seemed to lean dangerously close to intellectual nihilism. Edit: grammar