Yup, I cited a few knowledgeable people saying the same thing here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16353541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16353541

Yup, I cited a few knowledgeable people saying the same thing here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16353541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16353541 Here's my negative scenario: self-driving is "AI-complete"; you can't really hit all the edge cases without solving AI in general, which is more than 30 years away (Kurzweil is the wild optimist and predicts 2045). edit: Although since writing that I have become aware that Kurzweil thinks the Turing test will be passed in 2029; the "singularity" is the 2045 date. https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045/ https://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-wi... In any case, I think it's realistic that level 4 self-driving cars won't be widely deployed for end-to-end trips until 2029-2045. This doesn't seem to be what many people think right now. They think it's going to be an "instant roll-out" like the iPhone -- either it works or it doesn't.