This is sports and really any competitive zero-sum area in a nutshell. To be in it you have to have an inflated sense of your possibility of success, but to hav

This is sports and really any competitive zero-sum area in a nutshell. To be in it you have to have an inflated sense of your possibility of success, but to have said success you nonetheless have to be in it, so anyone who makes it is going to be a person with somewhat unrealistic reasoning, but since there's no feedback loop they never get the message that their reasoning was unrealistic.