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My point is that I don't think many people would take that option even if it were available. I know I wouldn't, unless the costs to own and operate a private ca

by dsnuh 8y ago

My point is that I don't think many people would take that option even if it were available. I know I wouldn't, unless the costs to own and operate a private car went up drastically, and even then, I see it as more of an augmentation than a replacement, i.e. maybe I own a single car instead of two, and use cabs for most trips. There are some realities I think get overlooked. For example, I have a family of six, plus a dog that can't be left alone. How do I go about getting where I need to go in a fast and convenient way? Let's say I can't afford to live in the dense city center, and like most people, I live in the suburbs. Barring some huge shift in politics, infrastructure, and major advancement in AI, what is my motivation to give up my minivan?

stretchwithme 8y ago
You can keep your minivan. Or you just hire a vehicle that has the room you need only when you need it. Uber already is pretty fast. I just used it in upstate New York north of Albany and there was hardly any wait. Any wait that exists will go down once robotic vehicles becomes dominant. And pricing will also be important to make that happen. People who want less than 5 minutes wait can pay more, but that will be pretty reasonable priced. It's cheaper to pay for a vehicle to wait for 5 minutes or even 20 than it ever could be to make it wait for 3 hours or 12 hours. And that IS essentially what we do when we have a vehicle on constant standby. We are paying for the fixed costs of having it wait around all the time. There's a daily cost to tie up that capital. It's 1/30 of your monthly payment. And an hourly cost. In any case, individuals will be able to choose the option that suits them. And go back and forth. Some days you may value immediate pickup and you could rental a vehicle by the day. Other days you may not care and want to save money. Or you use your vehicle to care around tons of stuff and it's better for you to own. It's all good.
- dsnuh 8y ago
  I agree that this will be the case, I thought you were arguing that private car ownership will virtually disappear. We are already in the situation you described. Sure, maybe use of public transportation and Uber type services will go up some, but I can't see anyone who has a private car in their driveway using Uber or public transit in anything other than unusual circumstances (need to go to airport, need a designated driver, you are on vacation it business travel, the car is in the shop with no loaner, etc), just like the majority of people I know do today. Admittedly, I don't live in a city center, but unless housing prices decrease substantially, I don't see the influx to dense metropolitan areas necessary for the kind of mass transit you're envisioning.
  - stretchwithme 8y ago
    Eventually, it will happen. Teenagers will be able to cheaply go anywhere they want without learning how to drive. When they get their first apartment and the one without a garage or parking spot is several hundred dollars cheaper, they'll probably not bother getting a car. Sure, many people are set in their ways. In the long run, that doesn't matter.
TheCoelacanth 8y ago
A family of six or more is quite unusual. 62% of households are two people or less, 78% are three or less and 91% are four are less. Your use case does not need to get solved for there to be a huge reduction in the number of privately owned cars.
- stretchwithme 8y ago
  That's true. But that use case will be solved too. Automated vehicles will come in all sizes. Families aren't the only groups that like to travel together. If there is a market for such vehicles, somebody will offer it.
  - dsnuh 8y ago
    I'm not arguing that these vehicles and markets won't exist, merely that I don't think they will eliminate or become even the majority mode of transportation in America. I feel like there are many unrealistic techno-utopian assumptions that have to be made to get to a future where private car ownership in America is for collectors and edge cases.

by dsnuh 8y ago

stretchwithme 8y ago

You can keep your minivan. Or you just hire a vehicle that has the room you need only when you need it. Uber already is pretty fast. I just used it in upstate New York north of Albany and there was hardly any wait. Any wait that exists will go down once robotic vehicles becomes dominant. And pricing will also be important to make that happen. People who want less than 5 minutes wait can pay more, but that will be pretty reasonable priced. It's cheaper to pay for a vehicle to wait for 5 minutes or even 20 than it ever could be to make it wait for 3 hours or 12 hours. And that IS essentially what we do when we have a vehicle on constant standby. We are paying for the fixed costs of having it wait around all the time. There's a daily cost to tie up that capital. It's 1/30 of your monthly payment. And an hourly cost. In any case, individuals will be able to choose the option that suits them. And go back and forth. Some days you may value immediate pickup and you could rental a vehicle by the day. Other days you may not care and want to save money. Or you use your vehicle to care around tons of stuff and it's better for you to own. It's all good.

dsnuh 8y ago
I agree that this will be the case, I thought you were arguing that private car ownership will virtually disappear. We are already in the situation you described. Sure, maybe use of public transportation and Uber type services will go up some, but I can't see anyone who has a private car in their driveway using Uber or public transit in anything other than unusual circumstances (need to go to airport, need a designated driver, you are on vacation it business travel, the car is in the shop with no loaner, etc), just like the majority of people I know do today. Admittedly, I don't live in a city center, but unless housing prices decrease substantially, I don't see the influx to dense metropolitan areas necessary for the kind of mass transit you're envisioning.
- stretchwithme 8y ago
  Eventually, it will happen. Teenagers will be able to cheaply go anywhere they want without learning how to drive. When they get their first apartment and the one without a garage or parking spot is several hundred dollars cheaper, they'll probably not bother getting a car. Sure, many people are set in their ways. In the long run, that doesn't matter.

TheCoelacanth 8y ago

A family of six or more is quite unusual. 62% of households are two people or less, 78% are three or less and 91% are four are less. Your use case does not need to get solved for there to be a huge reduction in the number of privately owned cars.

stretchwithme 8y ago
That's true. But that use case will be solved too. Automated vehicles will come in all sizes. Families aren't the only groups that like to travel together. If there is a market for such vehicles, somebody will offer it.
- dsnuh 8y ago
  I'm not arguing that these vehicles and markets won't exist, merely that I don't think they will eliminate or become even the majority mode of transportation in America. I feel like there are many unrealistic techno-utopian assumptions that have to be made to get to a future where private car ownership in America is for collectors and edge cases.