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I'm curious about this. How do you arrive at the conclusion that autonomous taxi adoption results in a doubling of the number of cars? Do you have a link?

cozzyd 8y ago
Because order half the time they'll be empty driving to their next pickup. The increase in ride-sharing has already greatly increased congestion: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180316/issue01/180319945/whats-making-traffic-worse-in-chicago-signs-point-to-uber-lyft http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180316/issue01/1803...
- stretchwithme 8y ago
  But in the most popular areas, many cars get multiple riders and find their next rides in the same area. And out in the boonies, some people will keep their personal cars, as it will take longer to get a ride. Also, the average car size will shrink. Not only will we lose the driver's seat, but peak demand as people go to work may be met with even smaller one-seat cars. You won't need a car that can handle your worst-case scenario for most of the time. Bigger cars will still be available, of course, because people do like to travel with their friends and family whenever possible. All in all, it's a lot more likely that that most seats will be filled.
  - cozzyd 8y ago
    I disagree. The article I linked suggests in NYC that Ubers are empty 1/3 of the time on weekdays. The problem of course is that no city is so mixed use that destinations are equally likely to be origins at any given time of day. taking labor out of the equation it will become cost effective to be empty an even larger fraction of the time (presumably humans stop driving when they're not getting enough fares to be worthwhile). It may also be economical for these vehicles to never park (not only because parking costs money or might be far away, but because it increases latency) for large fractions of the day.
ju-st 8y ago
Nobody wants to take a cab to drive from CBD to suburb at 10am. The cabs still have to drive to somewhere to park themselves until most of them are needed again at 5pm. Cars in general are mainly used at both rush hours and are parked somewhere in between. Sharing cars won't magically change human behaviour. Some googled "traffic by time of day" graphs: http://www.cs.utsa.edu/~cs1173/images/SATraffic3Intersections.png http://www.cs.utsa.edu/~cs1173/images/SATraffic3Intersection... and http://www.cmt4austin.org/Traffic_By_Time_of_Day.htm http://www.cmt4austin.org/Traffic_By_Time_of_Day.htm

cozzyd 8y ago

Because order half the time they'll be empty driving to their next pickup. The increase in ride-sharing has already greatly increased congestion: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180316/issue01/180319945/whats-making-traffic-worse-in-chicago-signs-point-to-uber-lyft http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180316/issue01/1803...

stretchwithme 8y ago
But in the most popular areas, many cars get multiple riders and find their next rides in the same area. And out in the boonies, some people will keep their personal cars, as it will take longer to get a ride. Also, the average car size will shrink. Not only will we lose the driver's seat, but peak demand as people go to work may be met with even smaller one-seat cars. You won't need a car that can handle your worst-case scenario for most of the time. Bigger cars will still be available, of course, because people do like to travel with their friends and family whenever possible. All in all, it's a lot more likely that that most seats will be filled.
- cozzyd 8y ago
  I disagree. The article I linked suggests in NYC that Ubers are empty 1/3 of the time on weekdays. The problem of course is that no city is so mixed use that destinations are equally likely to be origins at any given time of day. taking labor out of the equation it will become cost effective to be empty an even larger fraction of the time (presumably humans stop driving when they're not getting enough fares to be worthwhile). It may also be economical for these vehicles to never park (not only because parking costs money or might be far away, but because it increases latency) for large fractions of the day.

ju-st 8y ago

Nobody wants to take a cab to drive from CBD to suburb at 10am. The cabs still have to drive to somewhere to park themselves until most of them are needed again at 5pm. Cars in general are mainly used at both rush hours and are parked somewhere in between. Sharing cars won't magically change human behaviour. Some googled "traffic by time of day" graphs: http://www.cs.utsa.edu/~cs1173/images/SATraffic3Intersections.png http://www.cs.utsa.edu/~cs1173/images/SATraffic3Intersection... and http://www.cmt4austin.org/Traffic_By_Time_of_Day.htm http://www.cmt4austin.org/Traffic_By_Time_of_Day.htm