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The best reason to short Tesla would be that it has the same Market Cap as GM and a larger one than Ford. Or they have a history of missing production and prof
by addicted 8y ago
The best reason to short Tesla would be that it has the same Market Cap as GM and a larger one than Ford.
Or they have a history of missing production and profit targets.
Or that you believe that the existing car industry can learn to make electric cars faster than Tesla can learn to scale profitably and consistently.
Or that you believe that Tesla will be unable to maintain its premium pricing once it has luxury competitors who take EVs seriously, because their actual QC is pretty poor.
- freerobby 8y agoI think the last two are good reasons to short Tesla. I wouldn't touch those bets with a ten foot pole, but they are entirely rational depending on what you believe. If you don't believe those things, then Tesla having a greater market cap than GM or Ford makes sense, because Tesla's future cashflows would be greater than GM's or Ford's. Production deadlines aren't very compelling to me except to the extent that they starve a company of its operating budget. Heck, other car companies routinely show off concept cars that aren't only late but in fact never ship. It's not a big deal though, because those companies aren't betting the farm on those cars, whereas Tesla has needed the Roadster, S, and 3 to be successful to continue operating. That will be less the case on future cars though. So it may have been a reason to short up until now, but not so moving forward.