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> Model x and a have 25% profit margins Part of the short thesis is that they are hiding warranty repairs in "Services and Other" - underreserving for warranty
by thomaskcr 8y ago
> Model x and a have 25% profit margins
Part of the short thesis is that they are hiding warranty repairs in "Services and Other" - underreserving for warranty would make those margins artificially high. They reserve $3000/car - considering that just the 3 people I know with Model S's have all had a drive unit replaced, one had a battery replaced, between them I have lost count of the number of door handle replacements - I think there is something to that.
Even if their per car margins are high, they still have a negative operating margin. If you can't make money selling cars, does it really matter what your automotive gross margin is? I think the focus on those margins is a major misdirect away from the fact that the capital they've been raising has been used for operational costs as well as capex - which implies that they aren't "reinvesting profits in growth" but dependent on cash infusions for survival. And it seems to have worked based on the TMC and Reddit TeslaMotors threads - people think that the gross margins on the cars means they are making money if you ignore their investing in the future, which just isn't true.
Aside: My favorite bull response while sharing this information so far was "source" on my claim they had negative operating profit from someone who was "heavily invested in the stock" -- it's those stripey pages at the beginning of those reports you should be reading as an investor. I try to follow the bull reasoning as much as possible but it's really hard when a lot of it is just based on faith in Elon - I don't really know how to model that.
- thomaskcr 8y agoHere's an example customer receipt from Model 3 service posted today - the fact that the "Services and Other" costs have been rising combined with the differing pay types on customer receipts is what really gives me pause https://twitter.com/kkandyrocks/status/1014812194297573376 https://twitter.com/kkandyrocks/status/1014812194297573376 "Pay type: Warranty" https://twitter.com/kkandyrocks/status/1017651046376706048 https://twitter.com/kkandyrocks/status/1017651046376706048 "Pay Type: Goodwill - Service" I think that a blown pyro fuse within the first couple months of ownership should be a warranty cost.