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As technology improves, fewer people are required to work on farms. Lack of work then drives people towards urban areas. Globalization and automation are affect

As technology improves, fewer people are required to work on farms. Lack of work then drives people towards urban areas. Globalization and automation are affecting the world in ways that are difficult to predict. I see something dramatic happening in the next 15 years as wages stagnate, inflation rises and wealth is concentrated in the top .1% of the worlds population.

tjr225 8y ago
> I see something dramatic happening in the next 15 years as wages stagnate, inflation rises and wealth is concentrated in the top .1% of the worlds population. I'm really not trying to be on the attack here, but this kind of vague melodrama is pervasive on the internet and is really exhausting.
- tudelo 8y ago
  I mean, there is a pretty good chance that something dramatic will happen within a 15 year timespan given any time. Just depends on what you define as dramatic (9/11? WWI? WWII?). So, it is kind of an obtuse statement.
- musage 8y ago
  Dramatic things already happen for those reasons every day. Being numbed to them happening to someone else doesn't reduce that actual drama that the current victims of it suffer through. These things pervasive on the internet, just like the are in the writings of many greats I can think of, because thank God some people still care; if that is exhausting to you, become a better person and start caring, try to step in the road and get run over, or get out of the way.
- wonderwonder 8y ago
  How Dare You! Just kidding, I was a little vague so I will layout what I think could happen, all just my opinion. We are living in an age of both ever increasing wealth disparity and information. I believe that this wealth disparity and globalization have contributed to stagnating wages for the working class in the US and Europe which in turn has given rise to the current wave of populism (Trump, Brexit etc.). Populism often focus' on casting blame on those different from the majority, in this time frame refugees and immigrants serve as the scapegoat. In third world countries labor is increasingly dedicated to working in factories on subsistence wages to build things for the wealthy that control the means of production. I take a Marxist approach on world politics in that I believe the primary driver of conflict and power is class as opposed to States / Nations. (Note: I have no interest in communism) Historically these circumstances have led to major upheavals such as the French Revolution, the multiple populist waves that have swept Latin America and the rise of the Nazi Party. So essentially I am predicting a major wave of social unrest on a much larger scale than we have seen recently with the Arab Spring being a precursor. Of course I could be totally wrong.
  - tjr225 8y ago
    There's nothing you or I could do about it in any case - other than to put your best foot forward as a global citizen and be as good of a friend and family member as you can, so why stress out about it? I don't necessarily disagree with you, but it's just kind of dull...catastrophic stuff is happening as we speak...
StavrosK 8y ago
As technology improves, fewer people are required to work in offices. I predict people moving back to smaller towns with cheaper towns, while working remotely and achieving a much better quality of life for a given salary.
- tudelo 8y ago
  Do you think remote work is a 1 to 1 substitution for working in a good office (You have your own office, limited pointless meetings, etc.) Seems that companies might just want to move out to cheaper areas instead of going primarily remote... which seems to be happening already. I suppose I am focused on tech here, as there are plenty of customer support workers for Apple, etc that WFH >99 percent of the time.
  - optimuspaul 8y ago
    Having had a private office, cubicle, desk in an open office, shared office, and remote from home, coffee shop, car, etc, I feel like I can answer that. Remote work is not a 1:1 for a private office, but it's pretty close. Pointless meetings are a cultural thing and going remote at the same org will not reduce them significantly. I also don't think that there is any good replacement for face to face communication. 1:1 video calls are close, but not the same. But, I think depending on your role within an organization really dictates whether a remote "office" will work. (and personality, work ethic, etc.) Anyway, I think that companies, especially large orgs that will need to embrace remote more. Customer support is a great example where mostly remote can work well, could even become a "gig economy" thing (I hate that term). I don't think that many orgs will move to cheaper locations, at least not fully. I do think larger orgs will have remote offices in smaller markets, which many do. I'd like to see large orgs be open to investing in co-working spaces in small towns so that all the rural technology workers that are now commuting hours a day can save time and money. Exciting time, decentralized workforces seem like a useful thing in many areas.
    - StavrosK 8y ago
      I agree with you. The tradeoff for me hasn't been "private office" vs "remote work", it's been "face time with colleagues/friends" vs "remote work". But, as you say, remote offices and the various other positions in that gradient are very exciting.
mehrdadn 8y ago
> As technology improves, fewer people are required to work on farms. [...] I see something dramatic happening in the next 15 years I'm perplexed reading this. The number of people required to work on farms is already very low. Is there something particularly revolutionary happening with farming technology right now that would lower it dramatically again?
- 738472527784 8y ago
  I am sure harvests are still improving, due to automation, prediction and genetic engineering. Just not very visibly to outsiders. While the farms you know might superficially stagnate, same people running it, and so on, the total number of farms might decrease, and/or the population feeding on those harvests is increasing.
- abathur 8y ago
  Not sure, but I would guess they're just extrapolating these trends onto places that still have high agricultural employment.
738472527784 8y ago
For all of earth, I assume the biggest trend in city migration is actually global warming. Desert expansion, failing crops, ... with all the fallout of consequentially destabilized villages/societies, civil wars, and so on, leading to mass immigration, ..., it's rather easy to see how global warming might be a big factor. It's just less obvious, because the regions hit hardest by global warming, are probably rather far away from western societies.
gadders 8y ago
Also, in the developing world, farming is a much, much more unpleasant job than working in the city.

tjr225 8y ago

> I see something dramatic happening in the next 15 years as wages stagnate, inflation rises and wealth is concentrated in the top .1% of the worlds population. I'm really not trying to be on the attack here, but this kind of vague melodrama is pervasive on the internet and is really exhausting.

tudelo 8y ago
I mean, there is a pretty good chance that something dramatic will happen within a 15 year timespan given any time. Just depends on what you define as dramatic (9/11? WWI? WWII?). So, it is kind of an obtuse statement.
musage 8y ago
Dramatic things already happen for those reasons every day. Being numbed to them happening to someone else doesn't reduce that actual drama that the current victims of it suffer through. These things pervasive on the internet, just like the are in the writings of many greats I can think of, because thank God some people still care; if that is exhausting to you, become a better person and start caring, try to step in the road and get run over, or get out of the way.
wonderwonder 8y ago
How Dare You! Just kidding, I was a little vague so I will layout what I think could happen, all just my opinion. We are living in an age of both ever increasing wealth disparity and information. I believe that this wealth disparity and globalization have contributed to stagnating wages for the working class in the US and Europe which in turn has given rise to the current wave of populism (Trump, Brexit etc.). Populism often focus' on casting blame on those different from the majority, in this time frame refugees and immigrants serve as the scapegoat. In third world countries labor is increasingly dedicated to working in factories on subsistence wages to build things for the wealthy that control the means of production. I take a Marxist approach on world politics in that I believe the primary driver of conflict and power is class as opposed to States / Nations. (Note: I have no interest in communism) Historically these circumstances have led to major upheavals such as the French Revolution, the multiple populist waves that have swept Latin America and the rise of the Nazi Party. So essentially I am predicting a major wave of social unrest on a much larger scale than we have seen recently with the Arab Spring being a precursor. Of course I could be totally wrong.
- tjr225 8y ago
  There's nothing you or I could do about it in any case - other than to put your best foot forward as a global citizen and be as good of a friend and family member as you can, so why stress out about it? I don't necessarily disagree with you, but it's just kind of dull...catastrophic stuff is happening as we speak...

StavrosK 8y ago

As technology improves, fewer people are required to work in offices. I predict people moving back to smaller towns with cheaper towns, while working remotely and achieving a much better quality of life for a given salary.

tudelo 8y ago
Do you think remote work is a 1 to 1 substitution for working in a good office (You have your own office, limited pointless meetings, etc.) Seems that companies might just want to move out to cheaper areas instead of going primarily remote... which seems to be happening already. I suppose I am focused on tech here, as there are plenty of customer support workers for Apple, etc that WFH >99 percent of the time.
- optimuspaul 8y ago
  Having had a private office, cubicle, desk in an open office, shared office, and remote from home, coffee shop, car, etc, I feel like I can answer that. Remote work is not a 1:1 for a private office, but it's pretty close. Pointless meetings are a cultural thing and going remote at the same org will not reduce them significantly. I also don't think that there is any good replacement for face to face communication. 1:1 video calls are close, but not the same. But, I think depending on your role within an organization really dictates whether a remote "office" will work. (and personality, work ethic, etc.) Anyway, I think that companies, especially large orgs that will need to embrace remote more. Customer support is a great example where mostly remote can work well, could even become a "gig economy" thing (I hate that term). I don't think that many orgs will move to cheaper locations, at least not fully. I do think larger orgs will have remote offices in smaller markets, which many do. I'd like to see large orgs be open to investing in co-working spaces in small towns so that all the rural technology workers that are now commuting hours a day can save time and money. Exciting time, decentralized workforces seem like a useful thing in many areas.
  - StavrosK 8y ago
    I agree with you. The tradeoff for me hasn't been "private office" vs "remote work", it's been "face time with colleagues/friends" vs "remote work". But, as you say, remote offices and the various other positions in that gradient are very exciting.

mehrdadn 8y ago

> As technology improves, fewer people are required to work on farms. [...] I see something dramatic happening in the next 15 years I'm perplexed reading this. The number of people required to work on farms is already very low. Is there something particularly revolutionary happening with farming technology right now that would lower it dramatically again?

738472527784 8y ago
I am sure harvests are still improving, due to automation, prediction and genetic engineering. Just not very visibly to outsiders. While the farms you know might superficially stagnate, same people running it, and so on, the total number of farms might decrease, and/or the population feeding on those harvests is increasing.
abathur 8y ago
Not sure, but I would guess they're just extrapolating these trends onto places that still have high agricultural employment.

738472527784 8y ago

For all of earth, I assume the biggest trend in city migration is actually global warming. Desert expansion, failing crops, ... with all the fallout of consequentially destabilized villages/societies, civil wars, and so on, leading to mass immigration, ..., it's rather easy to see how global warming might be a big factor. It's just less obvious, because the regions hit hardest by global warming, are probably rather far away from western societies.

gadders 8y ago

Also, in the developing world, farming is a much, much more unpleasant job than working in the city.