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Ask HN: How do you deal with uncertainty?
We live in dynamic world. How do you deal in uncertainty which is everywhere. In business, work, health, financial planning?
Is it only state of mind, or can we really deal with? Do you use risk management approach?
- mark_biotasks 8y agoRead "The Lean Startup" by Eric Reis. It's entire premise is dealing with uncertainty.
- medntech 8y agoMy personal example. I'm betting four years of medical school loans that I can successfully complete med school, residency, and find a job. There is a lot of uncertainty in pursuing a medical degree. What if I didn't make it into med school? I have a four year biochem degree.. a field I don't want to work in. I was almost faced with that after two years of applying and finally making it in. Okay.. now what? Four years of medical school, hundred exams that I can possibly fail, license exams I can fail, bad evals I can receive. Even after that, it is more uncertain. The only way I can "deal" with this is thinking of it in terms of a risk/reward analysis. I'll start with some variables. Variables: - The graduation rate / residency placement rate is around 90%+. What happens with 10%? - Salary in a mid competitive field is $300K+ USD in areas that aren't expensive (Nevada?). What if I did computer science instead? 130K in Seattle? What if I didn't land a job? - Loans are around 350K at 6.5%. What if I fail and can't pay them off? - Employment rates of doctors vs CS? Job security? - Ability to leave medicine and go into computer science? - Etc. My risk is I fail and it takes me 25 years to get out of debt... by then I'm an old man. That is a pretty big risk. My reward is job security for the rest of my life. Gamble? ~10% odds I end up failing. Pretty low risk, but everything in the med field is filled with uncertainty. A few years from now I might be the guy making 40K with an MD next to my name, I might not. The question to ask yourself, is the uncertainty worth the reward? Be reasonable and analyze the risk involved.