4 ms·

The Success Sequence is bunk, here's some reading on it[1] but the basic idea is that in those three points you laid out number 3 does basically all the explana

The Success Sequence is bunk, here's some reading on it[1] but the basic idea is that in those three points you laid out number 3 does basically all the explanatory work, number one does a little work and number 2 does almost nothing. >This is a problem of culture and a lack of personal responsibility. Okay then where does that culture problem come from? Does it just emerge from the ether to grab black people and wipe away their "personal responsibility"? No, that culture emerges from the same society you're desperate to exonerate. There are many factors that influence that culture and systemic poverty is a huge one. You want to fix poverty in black America? Great, then hire them. [1] http://www.demos.org/blog/8/5/15/economic-institutions-should-keep-americans-out-poverty-not-norms http://www.demos.org/blog/8/5/15/economic-institutions-shoul... http://www.demos.org/blog/8/13/15/success-sequence-extremely-misleading-and-impossible-code http://www.demos.org/blog/8/13/15/success-sequence-extremely... http://mattbruenig.com/2017/07/31/the-success-sequence-is-about-cultural-beefs-not-poverty/ http://mattbruenig.com/2017/07/31/the-success-sequence-is-ab...

supreme_sublime 8y ago
>The Success Sequence is bunk, here's some reading on it[1] but the basic idea is that in those three points you laid out number 3 does basically all the explanatory work, number one does a little work and number 2 does almost nothing. Interesting, though as the comment on one of those articles mentions, I wonder what would have happened if he had started with not having children out of wedlock, how much of a difference would adding in having a job and graduating high school made? Though he does go on to talk about how getting the number of people who are childless or married when they have children, is difficult. >Okay then where does that culture problem come from? Does it just emerge from the ether to grab black people and wipe away their "personal responsibility"? That's a good question. The Brookings Institute seems to think it is a result of women's sexual liberation and the unrestricted use of contraception. https://www.brookings.edu/research/an-analysis-of-out-of-wedlock-births-in-the-united-states/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/an-analysis-of-out-of-wed...
neoburkian 8y ago
So the conclusion here is that failing to graduate high school and becoming a teen parent has little impact on life outcomes? I'm sure Bruenig is right when when he says that the ability to stay out of poverty is mostly determined by the ability to hold a job. But thats basically a tautology. Did AEI shoe-horn in their pet theories into the analysis? Sure. On the other hand, does Bruenig (or anyone) believe that holding a job is casually independent from the sets of behavioral traits that lead people into failing high school and becoming teen parents? > that culture emerges from the same society you're desperate to exonerate Accusations of motivated reasoning cut both ways. He could say that you seem just as desperate to implicate society as he is to exonerate it.
- frgtpsswrdlame 8y ago
  >So the conclusion here is that failing to graduate high school and becoming a teen parent has little impact on life outcomes? The conclusion is that it has little impact on your ability to not be "permanently poor" as the prior commenter stated. >On the other hand, does Bruenig (or anyone) believe that holding a job is casually independent from the sets of behavioral traits that lead people into failing high school and becoming teen parents? Saying "these things aren't independent" and saying "these things have a strong causal connection and here's the direction" are worlds apart so let's not treat the former as our motte and the latter as our bailey. >Accusations of motivated reasoning cut both ways. He could say that you seem just as desperate to implicate society as he is to exonerate it. Motivated reasoning requires a motivation, eg motivated reasoning would be '... that you're desperate to exonerate because you're racist.' But I never did that. And I don't mind the accusation that I'm implicating society here, I am.
  - neoburkian 8y ago
    The steelman of the Success Sequence (i.e. ignoring the shoe-horning that Bruenig pointed out) is that there are cultural/normative/behavioral tendencies that come prior to systemic oppression or poverty. These tendencies have a "strong casual relationship" with life outcomes like teen pregnancy, successfully holding jobs, etc. Is there any conceivable evidence for this view that would be compelling to you? Is there a possible state of life outcomes that cannot be explained by pointing at "the system"? > Motivated reasoning requires a motivation Suppose X says to Y, "you are desperate for claim Z to be true." I think a strait-forward reading implies that X has some motivation to believe in Z independent of Z's truth value. No claim regarding the nature of the motive is necessary.

supreme_sublime 8y ago

>The Success Sequence is bunk, here's some reading on it[1] but the basic idea is that in those three points you laid out number 3 does basically all the explanatory work, number one does a little work and number 2 does almost nothing. Interesting, though as the comment on one of those articles mentions, I wonder what would have happened if he had started with not having children out of wedlock, how much of a difference would adding in having a job and graduating high school made? Though he does go on to talk about how getting the number of people who are childless or married when they have children, is difficult. >Okay then where does that culture problem come from? Does it just emerge from the ether to grab black people and wipe away their "personal responsibility"? That's a good question. The Brookings Institute seems to think it is a result of women's sexual liberation and the unrestricted use of contraception. https://www.brookings.edu/research/an-analysis-of-out-of-wedlock-births-in-the-united-states/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/an-analysis-of-out-of-wed...

neoburkian 8y ago

So the conclusion here is that failing to graduate high school and becoming a teen parent has little impact on life outcomes? I'm sure Bruenig is right when when he says that the ability to stay out of poverty is mostly determined by the ability to hold a job. But thats basically a tautology. Did AEI shoe-horn in their pet theories into the analysis? Sure. On the other hand, does Bruenig (or anyone) believe that holding a job is casually independent from the sets of behavioral traits that lead people into failing high school and becoming teen parents? > that culture emerges from the same society you're desperate to exonerate Accusations of motivated reasoning cut both ways. He could say that you seem just as desperate to implicate society as he is to exonerate it.

frgtpsswrdlame 8y ago
>So the conclusion here is that failing to graduate high school and becoming a teen parent has little impact on life outcomes? The conclusion is that it has little impact on your ability to not be "permanently poor" as the prior commenter stated. >On the other hand, does Bruenig (or anyone) believe that holding a job is casually independent from the sets of behavioral traits that lead people into failing high school and becoming teen parents? Saying "these things aren't independent" and saying "these things have a strong causal connection and here's the direction" are worlds apart so let's not treat the former as our motte and the latter as our bailey. >Accusations of motivated reasoning cut both ways. He could say that you seem just as desperate to implicate society as he is to exonerate it. Motivated reasoning requires a motivation, eg motivated reasoning would be '... that you're desperate to exonerate because you're racist.' But I never did that. And I don't mind the accusation that I'm implicating society here, I am.
- neoburkian 8y ago
  The steelman of the Success Sequence (i.e. ignoring the shoe-horning that Bruenig pointed out) is that there are cultural/normative/behavioral tendencies that come prior to systemic oppression or poverty. These tendencies have a "strong casual relationship" with life outcomes like teen pregnancy, successfully holding jobs, etc. Is there any conceivable evidence for this view that would be compelling to you? Is there a possible state of life outcomes that cannot be explained by pointing at "the system"? > Motivated reasoning requires a motivation Suppose X says to Y, "you are desperate for claim Z to be true." I think a strait-forward reading implies that X has some motivation to believe in Z independent of Z's truth value. No claim regarding the nature of the motive is necessary.