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The frustrating part about solar is that because the peak generation output doesn't line up with typical peak consumption ("the duck curve"), utilities need nat

The frustrating part about solar is that because the peak generation output doesn't line up with typical peak consumption ("the duck curve"), utilities need natgas peakers, which sit mostly idle, to fill in the gap. As solar installation grows, coal baseload falls behind due to cheap natgas, and nuclear languishes due to huge capex, established baseload capacity will decrease. From now on, new capacity will largely be a mix of natgas CC, natgas CT, solar, and wind. CCs (combined cycle) are most able to serve in baseload/load-following capacity, but if solar and wind are reliable for a particular interconnection, CTs (simple cycle) are cheaper to build, if less efficient to operate. Much of the strategizing in the future will be about trying to find the right balance of CCs and CTs to complement intermittent and opportunistic (load-ignorant) renewables, while balancing an onslaught of new regulations and activists that will force battery storage as an issue. This is already happening now, well before battery storage is cost-competitive.

ghouse 8y ago
> The frustrating part about solar is that because the peak generation output doesn't line up with typical peak consumption ("the duck curve"), utilities need natgas peakers, which sit mostly idle, to fill in the gap. Solar does line up with peak consumption. The duck curve is not a consumption curve, but a "Net Demand" curve -- the demand remaining after solar and generation is removed. Peakers existed before solar. A typical load duration curve is a sideways "S" The peakers may run less than 5% of the year but are necessary to meet the hottest hours of the year.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- coryfklein 8y ago
  > Solar does line up with peak consumption. Not true according to [1], which shows peak consumption around 19:00, just as solar production drops to 0. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve
  - Brakenshire 8y ago
    Looks like a fantastic opportunity to install a.c. which draws its energy in the middle of the day, hell you could probably just set the house to stay cold through the day and save.
    - EADGBE 8y ago
      If the cost of energy is free (PV source already paid for); there's no point in programmable thermostats.
  - ghouse 8y ago
    That may be true on Oct 22, 2016 (the date displayed on wikipedia) net of behind the meter generation (which shows up as a reduction of demand), but it's not true on the peak days of the year, which is what the capacity of the grid is sized. You can see more here: http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

ghouse 8y ago

> The frustrating part about solar is that because the peak generation output doesn't line up with typical peak consumption ("the duck curve"), utilities need natgas peakers, which sit mostly idle, to fill in the gap. Solar does line up with peak consumption. The duck curve is not a consumption curve, but a "Net Demand" curve -- the demand remaining after solar and generation is removed. Peakers existed before solar. A typical load duration curve is a sideways "S" The peakers may run less than 5% of the year but are necessary to meet the hottest hours of the year.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
coryfklein 8y ago
> Solar does line up with peak consumption. Not true according to [1], which shows peak consumption around 19:00, just as solar production drops to 0. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_curve
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  Looks like a fantastic opportunity to install a.c. which draws its energy in the middle of the day, hell you could probably just set the house to stay cold through the day and save.
  - EADGBE 8y ago
    If the cost of energy is free (PV source already paid for); there's no point in programmable thermostats.
- ghouse 8y ago
  That may be true on Oct 22, 2016 (the date displayed on wikipedia) net of behind the meter generation (which shows up as a reduction of demand), but it's not true on the peak days of the year, which is what the capacity of the grid is sized. You can see more here: http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx