4 ms·

Your model has two different kinds of players, not one. There are players with a target activity rate of 0.1 and a players with a target activity rate of 0.01.

Your model has two different kinds of players, not one. There are players with a target activity rate of 0.1 and a players with a target activity rate of 0.01. Randomizing the activity rate over that will not produce a uniform distribution of activity. If you really want to take the economist up to task, you should find his paper, code his model and parameters exactly, see if you reproduce his hypothesis over a number of trial runs (for all we know, he may not have run a sim at all, given the NYTimes' shoddy reporting).

philwelch 16y ago
No, the OP's model has two different kinds of players. I'm not the OP; the OP wrote a simulation in Python following the bimodal distribution you described; I wrote a completely different simulation in Ruby following a uniform distribution several months ago when I first read the story in question: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1749324 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1749324 My model does have a number of flaws (a uniform distribution is still not very good; there's no gender distinction; the transmission rate per encounter is artificially high; people only stay with their partners for a random-yet-uniform amount of time) but I'm not sure to what extent these matter.